July 16 -
Rest Day & Coaches Analysis
Rest Day in Bordeaux
There are a number of things I want to discuss with this page. The
first thing I want you to notice is team strength. We need to look
at the top six teams on Team GC. Some times Team GC and tell you
things. At this point, we have identified the six strongest teams
before the climbing and at least some of them should be top six in
the climbing. So we are going to do a little teams analysis, after
all, we know this is a team sport.
The team which has clearly shown that it is thus far the strongest
team in the Tour also has the best tactical advantage going into the
mountain stages. ONCE has riders in first, third, and tenth. Since
they are also a climbing power, they will be difficult to beat in
the mountains PROVIDED they use the right team tactics. They have
position, quality, and numbers.
USPS has position and quality but is lacking in numbers in the top
positions (only Armstrong is in the top ten) so it has a slightly
inferior tactical position going into the mountains. For example,
they can't realistically continue the pressure on ONCE that they had
been carrying out before the crash which cost USPS their positions
on GC. Now ONCE and the other teams can afford to let most USPS
riders go minutes up the road before they have to chase the USPS
riders. USPS has lost considerable team leverage. On the other hand,
ONCE can use those tactics against USPS because of their numbers in
the top positions.
CSC has less position than both ONCE and USPS but has slightly
superior numbers than USPS (Peron and Hamilton are in the top ten)
and its tactical position is more team oriented. Therefore, CSC does
have some advantages over USPS which can be used against USPS
especially if coordinated with the tactics of ONCE. Therefore, CSC
can be a powerful force in the mountains.
Kelme and Lampre have the same situation as USPS except that their
position is inferior because their one rider in the top ten is down
further than Armstrong. Therefore, they will probably need to play
off of the tactics used by ONCE, USPS, and CSC. Mean while, FAS and
COF are wild cards which have position with one rider each in the
top ten but are not even in the top six on Team GC and for which we
will have to wait and see what happens. The only other team in the
top six on Team GC is RAB which has no formidable tactical position
with no riders in the top ten. Their strength may contribute to the
out come of the GC standings in that they may make a deal with other
teams which will benefit RAB towards some title or stage wins while
benefiting the other teams in the race for GC. Or they may work in
the mountains to move someone into the top ten.
We are about to see five strong teams bang heads for Individual GC
in what could be an interesting battle. You should know that deals
are being made during the day off and plans are being laid for the
coming battle.
ONCE should have little trouble for Wednesday's flat stage because
USPS can't pressure them but the team strategy for dealing with
Armstong's legs in the mountains will be the problem. The race
format for this Tour may work to Armstrong's benefit.
Tuesday is a rest day. Wednesday is a flat day. Thursday and Friday
are mountain days followed by a flat day which will be a chance for
Armstrong to rest before the race to the top of Mont Ventoux which
is followed by another rest day.
This presents a problem for attempting to use team tactics to break
Armstrong's legs before the climb on Ventoux. ONCE can send Azevedo
up the road on long breaks for Thursday and Friday to force
Armstrong to chase and tire Armstrong out but Saturday will be flat
which could permit Armstrong at least some recovery. Or ONCE could
send Azevedo up the road early in the stage for Ventoux forcing
Armstrong to chase for the second longest stage in the Tour before
attempting the climb. That could work if Armstrong can be forced to
do enough of the chasing.
Trying to tie those two strategies together could be a stretch
because it would require Azevedo to go on long break in two mountain
stages, a flat stage, and then another mountain stage. This could be
possible if ONCE put together deals with the right teams by
anticipating those teams needs and strategies. For example, Azevedo
could be sent up the road with strong climbers who are down on GC
but (1) want to gain ground with a successful break, (2) are
competing for KOM, or (3) want a stage win. Then he could go up the
road on the flat stage with riders working towards a subtitle or
stage win. This would make it possible to put real pressure on
Armstrong but would still be a stretch.
Oops, those subtitles and stage wins just became very important to
the GC riders and teams. Even a powerful GC team must know how to
read and use those "lesser" races to obtain their goals.
Another strategy available to ONCE and the others is to simply wear
Armstrong down over the full six days of mountain racing. You would
wear him down so that he gains less on Ventoux and then loses ground
in a later mountain stage or in the next time trial. This would
probably be the more logical strategy. They could do this by relay
attacking Azevedo and either Galdeano or Beloki up the road on log
breaks to force Armstrong to chase long and hard. It wouldn't take
long to break USPS and get to Armstrong with six mountain stages.
All Armstrong would have to do for this to work is break long enough
to lose three to five minutes on one mountain stage.
BUT you know Armstrong isn't going to just sit there and get ridden
over. You know he is making his plans and deals just like ONCE. All
of this will make for some interesting racing in the coming weeks.
Another thing I want to mention is that ONCE may have learned to
protect the Yellow Jersey in the flats without killing their legs
before the climbs. They seem to have done this by using the subtitle
races and stage win efforts to help keep anyone from getting far
enough off and staying far enough off to take the lead from Galdeano.
For example, they would let a group go up the road in which no one
was within four minutes of Galdeano, let the break gradually grow,
and then the sprint teams would bring the break back in so that
Galdeano kept the lead while saving ONCE's legs. Remember what I
told you about the basic strategy for stage racing is, "How can I
use the efforts of other teams trying to win their thing to help me
win my thing."
We wont find out how well this strategy worked until we get to the
mountains and see how well the team climbs. The question is, "How
tired are their legs?" They were strong enough to do very well in
the time trial with some losing ground but will they last in the
mountains?
I have a question. How do the climbers keep their climbing speed and
strength when they are in the flats for over a week before the race
reaches the mountains?
It is simple. Have you noticed that some strong climbers will go to
the front in a hilly region of a flat stage and attack, chase, or
other wise work with no apparent reason? They are doing hill work to
keep their climbing speed and strength up by attacking or sprinting
on key hills in certain stages. Some times they will just sprint up
along side the peloton as if they are just moving up on a climb but
are really doing a hill sprint. They normally do this from one to
three times between the prologue and the mountains. They may just do
a few hill sprints or go on the attack or chase for from 10 to maybe
30 miles. Then they slide back into the peloton and rest. You wont
see them again for days in the flats and wonder what they were up
to. They were just using the race for training to keep their
climbing speed and strength.
Things are not always what they appear to be. Always ask why.
Then for fun, I have been waiting for some one to say something to
me about something I did in my projections. We are now almost half
way through the Tour and not even one of my friends has said
anything to me about it. I was hoping it would be obvious (maybe it
wasn't) and even dropped a hint for Monday's race analysis when I
said that four of my top six guesses were in the top five and
Hamilton was in nineth. But no one seemed to get it.
Do you know who Francois Simon is? He finished fifth in the Tour
last year and I listed him for my guess at fifth for this year. But
hold it, he is a sprinter who only made fifth last year because he
was in a break on the flats that finished over 17 minutes ahead of
the peloton. It took the GC riders and teams the rest of the race to
push him from first to fifth and he gallantly held on struggling in
the mountains against the GC riders to EARN that fifth place. But,
realistically, he will probably never finish in the top five again
for the rest of his career.
I caught you sleeping, didn't I. :-) I really felt that some one
like Galdeano would finish in fifth but tried to see if anyone would
notice or say anything about it. Don't bother emailing me about it
now because I wont believe you anyway. :-) We do have to keep the
sport fun.
Being the rascal is fun.
In the US we tend to be very ignorant about a key aspect concerning
professional bicycle racing. These very fit and competitive athletes
are doing this for their living and can't do it for as many years as
you can do your 9 to 5 job. Most of them will only last a few years
on the pro circuit with the best having to retire before they are 40
years of age. This means that they don't have much time to make as
much money as they can before they retire from racing. There are NO
retirement plans for professional cyclists except to make all the
money you can before you retire from the sport. Therefore, it is
very important for them to win everything they can as soon as they
can.
When you study the economics of cycling, you develop a better
understanding for the subtitles and stage wins in stage racing.
Especially for the Tour de France. Forget about the thousands of
dollars you win when you win or place in a subtitle or a stage. 15
years ago, a rider who won their first stage in the Tour could
command $1,000 to $2,000 in show money at most of the races they
rode for the next year. Today, they command even more. When one
realizes that most of these pro's ride over 100 races a year, then
you also realize that a domestique can go from making $25,000 a year
or less to making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for just
one stage win in the Tour. It is even better for winning a subtitle.
But it doesn't stop there. That same rider will also get a better
team contract, product endorsements, and other financial
opportunities such as selling books and running training camps. One
stage win in the Tour can easily translate into anywhere from a
quarter of a million dollars to over half a million dollars
depending on how well the rider and his agent market him.
Therefore, there is a lot of money at stake in racing for a subtitle
or stage win and those races within the race of the Tour de France
are very heavily contested. This is not a game for medals and pats
on the back. It is a job and a vocation where you can leave the
sport broke or rich. And since you can be put out of the sport in
any race by a debilitating injury, it is very important for the
athlete to make all he can in every race.
The vast majority of these pro's realize that they will never have a
chance to win the Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France so they race
for the subtitles or stages for which they do have a chance. It is
also a way to get a favored position on a pro team or a ride with a
better team the following year and increase the possibility of
getting a chance to ride for the Yellow Jersey.
These teams do not put out the incredible team efforts you see
because these subtitles and stage wins are insignificant. Most of
these teams must win any and every subtitle or stage they can to
keep their sponsors for the next year. In Europe, the daily battles,
gains and loses, and wins for these subtitles and stages get a lot
of press providing a lot of exposure for the sponsors. That is why
you see the teams working so hard to win as many subtitles or stages
as they can. In the industry, we call this paying rent. It can mean
the difference between having or not having a job next year.
Add to this the strategies I have been trying to show you about the
Tour and the significance of these subtitles and stage wins for the
GC riders, and you begin to realize how significant the subtitles
and stage wins are to the Tour de France. They should be taken
seriously and you must learn to follow them or you will never learn
to understand stage racing and the Tour de France. Besides, they add
excitement and an element of surprise. It is much more difficult to
predict the winner of any subtitle or stage than the winner of the
Yellow Jersey. If you don't learn to understand and follow the
subtitles and races for the stages, you are missing most of the Tour
and the excitement it offers and CAN NEVER learn to understand and
follow the complexity of the strategies involved in the race for the
Yellow Jersey.
Only focusing on the few riders racing for the Yellow Jersey is like
watching a chess match and only watching when the king is moved
while ignoring the rest of the pieces. This is bike chess and you
must learn to follow all the strategic moves or you will never learn
to understand the game of stage racing.
Tomorrow
Wednesday's Bazas/Pau stage will be 147 km of realatively flat
racing. It is also a shorter stage that starts flat and ends in the
foot hills of the Pyrenees Mountains. The sprints are at 43.5, 80,
and 114 km with the three cat 4 climbs at 93.5, 113, and 126 km. The
first and third climbs will be 5.8% and the second climb will be
7.5%.
With a short stage, expect early attacking. Plus this is the last
flat stage before the mountains so expect some last efforts to gain
subtitle points or win a stage by the non-climbers before the
mountains. With the climbs having good grades and being so close to
the end of the stage, you should expect some one to take advantage
of them in some way. Some of the sprinter teams wont want to chase
in the break because the hilly finish may work against their
sprinter. Therefore, they will want a break to get the top points
for the Points Title to decrease their losses to the other sprinters
competing for the Points Title. Add to this that the GC riders and
their teams wont want to chase hard the day before the first day in
the mountains.
This means that a break could stay and the riders will know it. It
should get a little heated and could pose a threat to ONCE on GC
which could work against ONCE but the stage isn't very long which
will work for ONCE in that they wont have to chase as long and the
break wont have the time to gain as much ground. We should see some
good racing and team tactics.
