July 22 -
Rest Day & Coaches Analysis
Rest Day in Vaucluse
I want to start by taking a look at where the teams are and what you
should expect from them for the time. Where will they most likely
place their emphasis and expend their energies? I want to do this
team by team.
US Postal Service
It should be very clear that USPS will put all of its focus in
keeping Armstrong in the Yellow Jersey. With their current position
and the team having broken on Mont Ventoux, they shouldn't try to do
anything else. They have 9 riders.
Telekom
The only thing Telekom has worth working for is Zabel tied for first
in the Points Title. They have and will continue to put all of their
emphasis into winning this title. They have 9 riders.
ONCE
ONCE has one thing on their mind and it is breaking USPS and
Armstrong so they can move Beloki into first place with enough time
to keep the lead after the time trial. They will continue to place
all their efforts in this area. They have 8 riders left.
Kelme
On Mont Ventoux, Kelme when through a major shift when Botero broke
and fell from fifth on GC to 18th. Fortunately, Sevilla moved up
into eighth on GC and they will most likely try to move him into the
top five by the end of the race. They are down to only 6 riders
left.
Cofidis
Cofidis presently doesn't have anyone in the top five on anything or
top 10 on GC except that the team is in fourth on Team GC. They will
either try to move some one into the top five on something or go for
more stage wins like they recently did with Millar. The latter is
most likely along with trying to get a podium spot on Team GC. They
have 9 riders.
CSC
The only thing CSC has going is Jalabert in first for both KOM and
Combativity. They will definitely work on defending both of these
with KOM probably being the higher priority. They have stated that
they would like to get Hamilton into the top 10 on GC but they wont
sacrifice Jalabert's standings to do that. Look for Jalabert to
attempt at least one more long break in the next four days with a
good chance it will happen tomorrow with all the climbs in Vaison la
Romaine/Les Deux Alpes. Watch other teams like ONCE be ready to play
off of this move. They have 8 riders.
Credit Agricole
The best thing this team has is O'Grady in third on the Points
Title. They will continue to work towards getting him moved up or at
least defending his podium spot for this title. They have 8 riders.
Domo
The best thing this team has going is Virenque who won Mont Ventoux,
moved into fifth for KOM, and into 10th on GC. They will continue to
support his attempts at winning stages and moving up on GC and KOM.
They have 9 riders.
Fassa
The only thing Fassa has working at this time is Basso who has just
effectively defended his hold on first for the White Jersey and they
will probably try to move him from 11th to the top 10 on GC. The
White Jersey win is their primary race. They have 8 riders.
FDJ
FDJ has two things they can work on. They are currently holding onto
second for the White Jersey with Vogondy which is important because
it is a podium spot which provides good exposure for their sponsors
but they also have Cooke in fourth on Points Title. Look for them to
attempt to get Cooke on the podium for this title as long as it
doesn't interfere with the White Jersey which is a second place.
They have 8 riders.
Rabobank
They didn't have anything working until Leipheimer moved into nineth
on Mont Ventoux. They will work to move him towards the top five for
GC. They have 9 riders.
Bonjour
The only thing Bonjour has going at present is Renier in second
place for the Combativity Title. Expect them to try to defend this
and possibly challenge Jalabert for first in this title plus go for
stage wins. They have 7 riders.
Mapei
This team has nothing in the works since both its sprinters are out
of the race and has been trying to get a stage win. They will
continue working for a stage win. They are down to 6 riders.
iBanesto
They got a gift from Mont Ventoux when Mancebo moved from 10th on GC
to fifth. You can bet they will keep trying to move him up on GC.
They have 9 riders.
Lotto
Lotto has one thing on their mind. McEwen winning the Points Title.
They are doing very well considering they are down to 7 riders.
Lampre
They have Rumsas in third on GC very close to Beloki. You can bet
they are going to help ONCE try to break USPS and Armstrong so they
can try to beat Beloki and win the Yellow Jersey. They have 7 riders
and this could effect their chances.
Euskatel
Their one task at hand is Zubeldia in third (a podium spot) for the
White Jersey and they will continue to attempt to move him into the
top 10 on GC. The White Jersey will be their primary race. They only
have 7 riders.
Tacconi
They have nothing in the works at this time and have been working
towards stage wins. They will continue to attempt to win stages.
They are down to 6 riders.
AG2R
All they have is Berges in fifth on Combativity and Botcharov in
sixth for KOM. Since fifth will get mention in the standings in the
European media, they will want to hold Berges in fifth and move
Botcharov but will also be looking for stage wins. They have 8
riders.
Alessio
They have just moved Dufaux into fifth for KOM and sixth for
Combativity. They will try to improve on these and win stages. They
are doing pretty good for a first year team that is already down to
6 riders. 7-Eleven did much worse their first year.
Jean Delatour
They only have Brochard in sixth for Points and have been working
for stage wins. They will probably want to get him into the top five
but will readily take stage wins. They have 9 riders.
I told you earlier that the climbers would move up into the top GC
places during the mountians and then sort back down in the time
trial. It is important to note the times in the last time trial for
the top 10 on GC. These times will be for how far down they finished
behind the TT winner Botero. You can expect most of them to lose
approximately this much time in relation to each other in the next
TT.
Armstrong 0'11"
Beloki 1'38"
Rumsas 0'25"
Galdeano 0'19"
Mancebo 2'41"
Azevedo 2'36"
Heras 6'03"
Sevilla 2'57"
Leipheimer 2'35"
Virenque 4'23"
This gives you an idea of how much these riders will probably lose
in the next time trial. Some of them will very likely drop out of
the top 10 on GC.
ONCE took their time but have begun staging an impressive team
battle with USPS. Look for Lampre to join in this battle. It looks
like we are getting more battle than we wanted. USPS has some
serious potential problems ahead of them in the next five days. This
could get ugly and has gotten hot already. ONCE has succeeded in
wearing down USPS and will continue to do so for the next four days
of climbing.
These teams will be the primary contenders for the following titles.
GC
USPS, ONCE, and Lampre for the Yellow Jersey with Banesto, Kelme,
Rabobank, Domo, and Fassa fighting for a top 5 to 10 spot. The
latter will contribute to the down fall of USPS if it benefits them.
Points
Lotto, Telekom, Credit Agricole, and FDJ.
KOM
CSC, Domo, and Alessio. USPS and ONCE will be too involved in the GC
battle to care about KOM so Domo and Alessio will try to take
advantage of this battle to get a podium spot.
White Jersey
Fassa, FDJ, and Euskatel.
Combativity
CSC, BJR, AG2R, and Alessio. Lampre will put too much focus on
Rumsas in third on GC to worry about defending third in this title
for Dierchxsens.
Team GC
The top three placings for this title seem to be just happening
because of the battle for Individual GC. But Cofidis in fourth and
Rabobank in fifth could start sending riders on long breaks
(especially tomorrow) in an attempt to move into a podium spot on
this title because they don't have anything else working for them.
Watch for the team tactics from all these teams and see how they
effect the out come of the race. It has largely been USPS chasing
the breaks for the subtitles and stage wins that has worn them down
and put Armstrong's Yellow Jersey at risk. These subtitles and stage
wins will be more important as the race continues through the
mountains. Watch how the different GC teams use the racing for these
subtitles and the stage wins. Also, the battles for the stage wins
will become more intense as the number of remaining stages decreases
and this will also effect the out come in the race for the Yellow
Jersey.
Tomorrow
The Vaison la Romaine/Les Deux Alpes is the longest stage in this
year's Tour at 226.5 km. The two sprints are at 81.5 and 203 km but
it is very likely that only the first sprint will be contested by
Zabel and McEwen because the second sprint follows too many climbs
including two cat 2 climbs. Most likely, a break will get at least
the last road sprint points. The climbs are at 68.5 (cat 3), 116
(cat 2), 123.5 (cat 3), 136.5 (cat 3), 150 (cat 3), 190 (cat 2), and
226.5 (cat 1). With its length, the number of climbs, two cat 2
climbs, and the finish at the top of a cat 1 climb, you should
expect to see a lot of legs break even after a rest day.
ONCE will work hard to break USPS legs again as soon as possible so
they can begin working on Armstrong. The sooner they can break the
domestique's legs, the longer they will have to work Armstrong over
before the end of the stage. If they don't break USPS in tomorrow's
stage, there is a good chance they will in the next stage which has
three HC climbs. How well USPS does tomorrow will be critical. Watch
for team tactics from ONCE and Lampre.
Look for a lot of early attacking especially from Jalabert and
Virenque who will want to garnish the points on so many KOM sprints.
They will know that no one will want to chase hard for that long
with that many categorized climbs and the stage finishing at the top
of a cat one climb. Especially since the next day will have three HC
climbs. The break may very well stay off and win the stage. Watch to
see who, if anyone, ONCE gets in this break.
