Course Analysis

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Course Analysis

In this year's Tour de France, there are nine significant stages worth watching for GC. These are the team time trial, both individual time trials and the six high mountain stages. A very significant aspect of this year's Tour is that there are six mountain stages and the first five have a mountain top finish.

As I have stated before, a mountain top finish is more significant because dropped riders don't have a down hill to help them recover lost time from the last climb. Therefore, the significance of that last climb is greater. Having the first five mountain stages finish with a mountain top finish gives climbing more of a significance towards determining the eventual winner of the Yellow Jersey.

The Team Time Trial (Stage 4)

As you should have learned by now, the most significant aspect of the team time trial is that it eliminates GC hopefuls who don't have a strong time trialing team. If I were coaching a pro team preparing for the Tour and I had a rider who was even a modest hopeful for a top placing in GC, I would spend quite a bit of time working with my team on the fundamentals to improve their team time trialing ability. The 7-Eleven pro team did this for the entire year following their first Tour because they all lost so much time in the team time trial.

The Two Individual Time Trials (Stages 9 and 19)

The most significant aspect of the two individual time trials is that they eliminate the pure climbers from GC by causing them to lose so much time in the time trials that they couldn't hope to make up that time in the mountains against riders who can both climb and time trial. If you lose more than two minutes in these stages against a rider who can also climb, you are probably out of the race. If you lose five minutes or more, you are racing for a placing and not the win.

The first time trail almost always establishes a serious contender for the GC win. It also sorts out the top five to ten possible winners and placers for GC. This will be the first stage where we can have a reasonable idea of the potential outcome for the Yellow Jersey. The trouble with the first time trial is that it temporarily elevates riders in placing who are good time trialists but don't climb well.

The second time trial will either finish off the race by securing the lead or serve for a final attempt to recover lost ground if the lead is close. There will also be a sorting out of climbers who don't time trial well but made ground in the mountains to lower final placings.

Pau - La Mongie Mountain Stage (Stage 11)

This is the first mountain stage of the Tour 2002. I rate it as the fourth most significant mountain stage in the Tour this year. The most significant aspect for this stage is that it will sort out the time trialists who can't climb very well and give us our first clear view of who the top five to ten finishers will be.

The Col d'Aubisque is the first significant climb of this year's Tour. It is the sixth longest climb of the Tour at 16.7 km (10.4 miles) and the sixth steepest climb at 7.1%. It will sort out weaker climbing legs early but the top of the climb is 92 km (57.5 miles) from the finish which permits riders to recover lost ground before the last climb.

La Mongie is the last and only other significant climb in this stage with the stage finishing at the top of the climb. It is only the tenth longest climb in the Tour at 12.9 km (8 miles) and the eighth steepest climb at 6.8% but is the fourth most significant climb for which a stage finishes at the top which is why I rate the stage as the fourth most significant mountain stage for this year.

This stage is also the second shortest mountain stage for the year at only 158 km (98.8 miles.)

Lannemezan - Plateau de Beille (Stage 12)

I rated this as the second most significant mountain stage in this year's Tour. It is the third longest mountain stage at 199.5 km (124.7 miles) with five significant climbs listed by the Tour organization. The first two climbs are the two steepest in the tour this year at 9% and 9.6% respectively but are only 9.4 km (5.8 miles) and 4.4 km (2.8 miles.) They should definitely shed weaker climbers and set the first pack with over 106 km (66.3 miles) left to race and three longer significant climbs and a mountain top finish.

The third climb for the day, the Col de la Core, is the ninth longest climb for the Tour at 14.3 km (8.9 miles) and is tied for 11th steepest at 5.8%. The fourth climb for the day, the Col de Port, is 11th longest at 12.6 km (7.9 miles) but isn't even in the top 15 in grade at only 4.9%.

I rate the last climb for the day, the Plateau de Beille, as the second most significant climb in the Tour because it is the seventh longest climb at 15.9 km (9.9 miles) and is the fourth steepest at 7.8% PLUS the stage finishes at the top of the climb making it the second most difficult climb for which a stage finishes at the top. You should see significant action and tactical moves on this climb. The leader and potential winner could be established by the end of this stage.

This may be the second most significant stage in this year's Tour. You definitely don't want to miss this stage.

Lodeve - Le Mont Ventoux Mountain Stage (Stage 14)

In spite of the fact that the first 200 km (125 miles) of this stage are relatively flat, I rate this as the most significant mountain stage in this year's Tour and possibly the most significant stage of all stages. This is because, first, it is the second longest stage and second longest mountain stage in the Tour at 221 km (138.1 miles) which will tire legs even at a slow pace and, second, it has the second longest climb at 21 km (13.1 miles) and fifth steepest climb at 7.5% as the stage finish with a mountain top finish.

I rate La Mont Ventoux as the most significant climb in this year's Tour. Watch, there could be some interesting team tactics to force the team defending the Yellow Jersey to ride harder than they want before the climb.

Vaison la Romaine - Les Deux Alpes Mountain Stage (Stage 15)

In spite of the fact that this is the longest stage in this year's Tour, I only rate it as the fifth most significant mountain stage. This is because, of the three most significant climbs in the stage, two are tied for 14th longest at 11.5 km (7.2 miles) and one is the 16th longest climb at 9.8 km (6.1 miles) but only the last climb of 11.5 km is even in the top 15 for steepness. It is also the climb used for the mountain top finish.

But we do have to watch because the distance in relation to the constant lower grade climbing can finish off tired legs which are already close to breaking. That is the only thing I would watch on this climb unless the race is very close. Even for the latter case, I would tend to think they would want to save at least something for the next day's stage which is more significant.

Les Deux Alpes - La Plagne Mountain Stage (Stage 16)

This is only the fourth longest mountain stage at 179.5 km (112.2 miles) but it follows the two longest stages in the race, follows the most significant mountain stage by only two days, is the fifth mountain stage in the race, and is the third consecutive mountain stage at this point. All of these combined mean there will be plenty of tired climbing legs to break.

Then the stage begins with the longest climb of the stage at 33.7 km (21.1 miles) but is only a 4.7% grade. Even at that, the climbing miles will tire already tired legs out even more with two of the most significant climbs in the Tour coming at the end of the stage.

The Col de la Madeleine is the fourth longest climb at 19.3 km (12.1 miles) and is the third steepest climb at 7.9%. It's top is only 67 km (41.9 miles) from the finish. Of the climbs which are not a mountain top finish, I rate this as the most significant climb and its position in this stage and the race make it even more significant. Add to this the difficulty of the next climb which is the finish of the stage and this climb becomes very important. Keep an eye on it.

I rate the La Plagne climb as the third most significant climb in the Tour because the stage finishes at the top of it, it is the fifth longest climb in the Tour at 17.3 km (10.8 miles), is the seventh steepest climb at 7%, and the above reasons add to its difficulty. I expect an effort to either put the race away or a last ditch climbing effort to recover lost ground. This climb could be a nasty little battle unless the race is all but over. Even then, there could easily be a hard fought race for placings.

Aime - Cluses Mountain Stage (Stage 17)

This is an interesting stage in that it could cause tired riders to lose ground but I don't see much of a battle for first place unless the race is very close at this point. All four significant climbs are in the top 13th as far as length and three are in the top 13th as far as difficulty, but it has a down hill after the last climb and is the shortest mountain stage. Part of the problem is that the two best climbs are at the beginning of the stage with time to recover lost time.

The Cormet de Roselend is the third longest climb at 19.4 km (12.1 miles) and is tied for 11th steepest at 5.8%. The second climb, the Col des Saisies, is eight longest at 15.3 km (9.6 miles) and is 10th steepest at 6%. But the Col des Aravis, the third climb, is 13th longest at 11.7 km (7.3 miles) but is not even it the top 15 grades at only 4.9%. Then the last climb, the Col de la Colombiere, is 12th longest at 11.8 km (7.4 miles) and is only 13th steepest at 5.6%. Add to this that there is a 21.5 km (13.4 miles) descent following the last climb which can easily be used to recover lost ground.

The most likely finish for this stage will be the leaders in the first pack with maybe a few riders on break for a stage win. Other than that, look for some one losing ground from tired legs giving way causing a rider to get dropped by the lead group.

Summary

Watch for GC riders losing ground in the Team Time Trial, Stage 4. Then, I expect the leaders to make their first serious bid for the lead in the first individual time trial, Stage 9, with pure climbers doing damage control. The next real bid will be in Stage 11 which will be the first mountain stage. In Stages 12, 14, and 16, I expect a real battle to develop with, most likely, some defensive climbing taking place in Stages 15 and 17 by the leader. Then the final decision for the lead and a final sorting of top placings will take place in the second individual time trial, Stage 19. By Paris, it will probably be all history but that has not always been the case.

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