Projections

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Projections

The read for this year's Tour goes like this: we will get to see some time trialing strength in the Prologue, then there will be the usual racing for the Points and Combativity titles and stage wins. Next, we will see which teams lose time in the Team Time Trial which will cause some GC hopefuls to drop from the list of hopefuls and start chasing a subtitle or stage win.

Then the race for the subtitles and stage wins will resume until the first individual time trial. This is where the top climbers who can't time trial will be sorted down the GC chart. In the mountains, we will see the battle really get started and possibly finished with so many high mountain stages and especially since five of those six stages have mountain top finishes.

In the mountains, some of the climbers who can't time trial will force their way back up the GC standings while the strong time trialists who can't climb will be pushed down the GC list. Then the last time trial will push those strong climbers who can't time trial but managed to work their way back up the list back down the list. We will see the final results after the second time trial unless there is a very close finish.

Armstrong

Armstrong has to be considered the race favorite for this year but not as strong as last year. He is missing a key supporter who has become a threat and several of his top threats have improved. The combination of these threats should make his win less dominating and maybe turn it into a loss. But Armstrong still has a strong team supporting him especially with Heras. Will it be enough?

Beloki/Galdeano

Beloki is considered the top threat to Armstrong and has a powerful backing from Galdeano. If they use the right tactics in conjunction with the other threats to Armstrong, they could keep America from having its first four-year Tour winner. Armstrong could find himself squeezed between the two riders in a hopeless battle. Will they be able to stage the assault required to break Armstrong?

Hamilton

I consider Hamilton to be one of the two biggest threats facing Armstrong this year. He is now a powerful team leader who could easily win the Tour. He is riding on a strong team which has been top three in the team time trial the last two years and can support him in the mountains. Will Hamilton benefit from the massive assault being staged against USPS by ONCE, Kelme, and CSC to become the third US rider to win the Tour?

Botero/Sevilla

Botero becomes a more significant threat to Armstrong if they play off of the tactics which will be used by both ONCE and CSC. The combination of the three teams could open things up enough to permit Botero or Sevilla to slip into the Yellow Jersey before Paris and hold the lead. Will they play their team cards right?

My Guess

For this year, I see a tough pick. This will definitely be a tougher race for Armstrong than last year. He should not walk off with it as easily. The team tactics could send second riders like Sevilla and Galdeano down the list in order to gain a win against Armstrong. Plus there are always some new faces showing up at the top. I may hate myself after making this pick but below is my best guess.

Armstrong
Hamilton
Beloki
Botero
Francois Simon
Galdeano

OK, so I can't count again. :-) What is your best guess?

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