Stage 1

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Stage 1

July 6 Luxembourg 7 km

The first thing we need to do is get you set up to watch the Tour. If you coach the circuit, you will find that all the top coaches do something similar to this. Go to the TDF web site, select The Race, then select The Pack, then select The Riders, and print the list of riders. You will want to keep this list next to you for the rest of the Tour and will use it daily. You need to mark on the list the riders you think may be able to make some reasonable effort for the GC lead so you will know what they are doing when they attack. You can do this by either underlining or drawing a box around the rider's number. Next, I want you to mark the riders whom you think will make some effort for any sub title in a similar but slightly different manner.

Now take a look at your list and it should give you an idea of where the teams will most likely put a great deal of their effort during the race. The teams for which you did not mark a rider will most likely race for whatever falls in their lap. For example, you should have marked Lance Armstrong and it should be clear at a glance that USPS will put all their effort behind Armstrong to win the Yellow Jersey. Some of the other riders you should have marked for GC should include but not be limited to Beloki, Galdeano, Sevilla, Botero, Hamilton, Sastre, and Leipheimer. This shows at a quick glance where these teams will put their main effort unless their rider falls too far behind. Then you know they will shift tactics to the next best opportunity because they don't want to go home empty handed.

Now I want you to look at the riders you marked for subtitles. This should include riders like Zabel, Jalabert, O'Grady, Virenque, Durand, Dekker, Rous, Steels, and others. If this rider seems to be that team's primary opportunity, then, most likely, that team will put a lot of effort into chasing that particular subtitle. Most of them wont even think about going after anything else. With Telekom's team structure this year, you can bet they will make a huge effort in giving Zabel another win for the Points Title.

Now you should begin to see the different team strategies and will be able to see how all the different races will blend into and effect the one big race. This is crucial for understanding and developing racing strategy for stage racing. You will quickly see that the simple minded stuff you get from most of the media and "experts" is worthless drivel. For example, I checked all the items under Daily Reports and there wasn't anything there which would teach or inform you about how to analyze or understand anything about the Tour. It was mostly some silly comments any half decent amateur racer could write. Learn to read the race yourself and save some time and not having to read worthless comments. You can figure out better than they wrote.

Back to the list of riders. There are several more things you will do with this list as the race progresses. First and very importantly, you will scratch out riders as they withdraw from the race. This is very important because it tells you when teams are losing strength and ability to fight for any title. One more rider can make all the difference in the world.

Second, using a pencil so you can erase it to keep it current, note when any rider or team is in the top 6 to 7 positions for any subtitle or top three in a stage along with points and times. Mark every rider who is in the top ten for GC and their times.

Now get several pieces of lined note book paper and make a list of all the daily standings I just mentioned including the team for which each rider is racing. You want to keep these lists handy so you can see the movement in the various titles. This movement and consistency will tell you whether or not a team is actively defending a particular title or will they let a rider slide in one title to defend another title.

Now you have the race and course format and analysis I provided you with, your two lists, my rider analysis for reference, and the daily news flashes on the TDF site. If you watch these closely, you will have a better understanding of the Tour than anything any journalist or "Expert" has ever written.

After you do this a few times, you will be able to analyze any race format and the other teams and set a better team structure and strategy than most cycling coaches can do today. This little learning exercise will do a lot to help your team improve its racing.

Following today's prologue, your lists should look like the following.

GC

1 Armstrong USPS 9'08"
2 Jalabert CST 2"
3 Rumsas LAM 3"
4 Botero KEL 4"
5 Millar COF 5"
6 Brochard DEL 6"
7 Frigo TAC 8"
8 Galdeano (Igor) ONE 9"
9 Beloki ONE 13"
10 Bodrogi MAP 13"

From this list you should be able to see that Armstrong, Botero, Galdeano, and Beloki are already showing their time trialing strength. Among the riders who are not much of a threat to the final GC, you see that most likely, Jalabert will want to take the Yellow Jersey from Armstrong tomorrow along with many other riders. The question is, "how much effort will CST put into getting and holding that jersey this early in the race?" If they put too much effort into it now, it could ruin Hamilton's chances of wearing it in Paris.

Just by looking at the information I have told you about, you should be able to see that Jalabert will probably want to defend the Points Jersey and get the Yellow Jersey tomorrow. Millar will have to begin defending the White Jersey. Then the stage hunting, road sprints, Combativity, and KOM races will begin. So that tomorrow, there will be seven basic races taking place.

The Luxembourg/Luxembourg stage tomorrow will be relatively flat but has quite a few opportunities for breaks and attacking. There will be three road sprints at 14.5, 117.5, and 160 km along with four KOM sprints at 50 (cat 3), 69.5 (cat 4), 148.5 (cat 3), and 182 (cat 4) km. Note that the third KOM climb is on a 9.5% grade late in the race. If there is no break by that point, watch for the attacks on that climb, the Cote de Wormeldange.

Expect Armstrong to make an announcement that USPS will not defend the Yellow Jersey tomorrow. They will permit a break to go up the road and make a token appearance at the front of the peloton but will let the break gain ground forcing the other teams being threatened by the break to rush to the defense. Then the racing for the stage win and subtitles will begin as USPS will slip back into the peloton and monitor the action at the front. They will only go to the front if they feel something gets out of hand.

Tomorrow, watch for the leaders of today's subtitles and the people you marked on your list of riders. That will tell you what is happening while the race is developing. You will say, "Oh, I know what that rider and that rider and that rider are probably racing for" and have a better understanding of the race.

It is important to know that, when you are in the race, you don't have to make the above classifications lists because the race officials give them to the teams after each stage and we coaches use them to make these analysis before each stage and carry them with us during the stages. They help us guess what the other teams are up to.

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