Stage 10
Key Stage
July 15 Lanester - Lorient TT 52 km
Today was that second day of sorting I told you about. Very few
things remain the same for the Individual GC. The sprinters and pure
climbers took a plunge down the list and the GC riders and time
trialists moved up the list. Four of my top six picks are in the top
five within 1'55" of the lead and Hamilton is sitting in nineth at
2'30".
There are several things which need to be pointed out about
Armstrong at this time. First, almost everyone had taken it for
granted that he would win the time trial and take the lead. What
have I told you about taking a rider or race for granted? Don't do
it. Botero beat Armstrong in the time trial and Galdeano did well
enough that he still has the lead. Note that he still has the lead
by one second less than the time lost by Armstrong in the crash.
Those crashes will get you every time. Now, are you going to take
Armstrong winning in the mountains for granted?
Second, Armstrong is boxed between ONCE's two strong GC riders
giving ONCE great team leverage and this sport is a team sport. Then
you have to consider that Galdeano finished only 8" behind Armstrong
in the TT. If he can lose no more than 15" to Armstrong in the
mountains, he could win the Tour. If he gains time, he can win the
Tour. Mean while, Beloki lost 1'31" to Armstrong in the TT so that
he will need to make up at least 3 minutes on Armstrong in the
mountains to have a chance at winning the Tour. You really need to
keep your time trial loses to a maximum of one minute per time trial
(with two long time trails) to have a good chance at winning the
Tour.
Plus ONCE also has Azevedo in 10th spot only 2'45" down on GC which
gives ONCE even greater team leverage. This could give Galdeano and
Beloki the added team leverage they require to gain needed time in
the mountains. The question is will they be able to effectively use
that leverage?
I can see ONCE sending Azevedo up the road on a long break in the
first and/or second mountain stages to force Armstrong to chase
before the stage with Mont Ventoux. The second mountain stage is
long at 199.5 km and a lot of climbing. Chasing for most of that
stage will take the go out of your legs just before Mont Ventoux.
Mean while, Galdeano and Beloki rest on Armstrong's wheel....along
with Botero, Peron, Rumsas, and Hamilton.
Then you have to ask the question that, if Botero is that much
improved in time trialing, is he also improved in climbing? We will
get the answer to this question in three days.
Next, you have to remember that, having won the last three Tours,
makes Armstrong a marked rider. Along with ONCE staging their
assault on Armstrong, Kelme will be supporting Botero in an assault
against Armstrong, CSC has both Peron and Hamilton in the top ten to
stage an assault against Armstrong, and then there is the question
of Rumsas and even Millar. Contrary to what the experts have been
saying, this race is not over until we reach Paris.
On the other hand, Armstrong has relatively weak team leverage with
Heras in 45th at 6'50" and Rubiera in 40th at 6'9". Galdeano and
Beloki can let them get at least five minutes up the road before
they have to get worried. By that time, other teams will have begun
to chase saving ONCE legs. Where as, Beloki poses a threat to
Armstrong if he gets less than one minute up the road and Azevedo
can do so with a lead of only about two minutes then Armstrong must
chase. If ONCE can use this and other team's threats to force
Armstrong on the defensive and wear him and his team down, they can
beat him.
A rider who has been ignored by every one and we should keep an eye
on is Rumsas of Lampre who finished third in the Tour of Catalunya
this year. There are a number of red flags which should be raised at
this time. These include the people sitting in the top ten who have
been ignored like Honchar, Peron, Millar, Rumsas, and Azevedo. We
now know who can time trial and in three days, we will find out
which of these are climbing strong. At that time, things will sort
out some more.
Often, there are little things in a race that can give clues about
at team and its strategy. In the individual time trial, in spite of
Galdeano starting with the lead, the team manager, Saiz, was in the
support vehicle behind Beloki. It is only human and normal for the
team manager to ride in the support vehicle behind the team's
favored rider in case something goes wrong. Just a thought and maybe
a unintentional signal from the team manager.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow will be a day of rest, thinking, and planning. I will think
about all this tonight and give it a more complete analysis tomorrow
in my Coach's Analysis.
