Stage 13
Key Stage
July 19 Lannemezan - Plateau de Beille 199.5 km
Before we move to the stage for today, I want to discuss something a
reader sent me to help you learn. The reader defended ONCE using
defensive tactics against USPS saying that Beloki isn't in that bad
of a position. Honestly, I don't think I would ever train or plan to
achieve Beloki's position. That would never be one of my goals.
Think about it.
To decide which tactics to use, you must first understand the
fundamentals of the tactics you will be racing against. Therefore,
we must analyze the basic mountain stage tactic used by USPS.
USPS uses a defensive tactic as an offensive weapon. It is a tactic
that was used very well by Eddy Merckx and is often miss used by
lesser teams who don't really understand the tactic. The concept is
for Armstrong's team to neutralize any immediate threats with a
quick chase (defense), then, at the appropriate time, have the rest
of the team set such a stiff pace that the team mates of the other
top climbers are dropped ("I don't care what moves you make a
quarter of a mile behind me because they can't affect me" concept),
and then Armstrong will destroy the other leaders.
The primary requirements for this tactic are (1) your team has to be
strong enough to literally ride most of the other domestiques off
their wheels and (2) the team leader must be significantly stronger
than the rest of the riders so that he can break away and ride away
from them. If your team doesn't meet these requirements, this tactic
will back fire every time.
What this tactic does is to turn the bike race into an individual
sport at a point desired by the team leader by removing the
competitions' domestiques from their team leaders so they can't use
team tactics. The reason this works is because the team using it is
faster climbing for a relatively short distance than the competition
so they can go hard enough to break their competition's legs.
Therefore, the logical counter to this tactic is to USE TEAM TACTICS
WHILE YOU CAN to force this team to ride hard enough at a slower
speed for a longer time to tire the riders out and strip them away
from their team leader soon enough so that the team leader will have
to ride hard enough for a longer distance and, therefore, at a
slower speed to tire him enough to at least decrease his ability to
ride as fast and, hopefully, to break him. Your goal MUST be to
achieve this condition before he reaches the point where HE wants to
attack.
To use a defensive strategy against this tactic is to permit HIM to
make YOU ride HIS race. Therefore, the only rational counter to this
tactic is to go offensive as early as possible forcing this team to
chase hard at a slower speed for a longer distance so you can stay
with them without getting trashed while they trash their legs.
You have to understand that Armstrong is not superman. He is human
just like the rest of us. It is just that he is in enough better
shape that he can ride faster than anyone else while climbing. Since
he is human, he fatigues just like us and will not be as strong and
fast when he is fatigued just like us and can break just like us.
The problem most people don't understand is that, in order to break
someone who is that much faster than you, you can't permit them to
use their top speed against you until after you have tired them
enough that he can't obtain that speed himself or at least can't
hold it long enough to break you. Therefore, the only way to defeat
someone like that is to steadily grind them into the ground by
making them work hard at a slower speed for a long time.
Remember my example about my "up start pro-am team" at Super Week?
My one pro wasn't fast enough to hold Gaz's wheel in the final
sprint but was fast enough to race against him before the sprint
started. So I changed our team structure and tactics to wearing Gaz
down from the very start of the race (offense) so that he was tired
enough to be dropped long before the sprint and we beat him with
repeated break aways NEVER letting him get us to the final sprint
with him WHERE HE WAS THE STRONGEST. WE CONTROLED THE RACE TO
PREVENT HIM FROM USING HIS STRENGTH AGAINST US. It sounds simple but
NOT ONE of the pro teams there were able to figure that out and use
it so that they couldn't beat Gaz. Only my little amateurs could
because I TAUGHT them how. That is coaching. It worked. If you don't
believe me, ask those who were at Super Week in 1990. It works.
The only way you can beat Armstrong is to use the same strategy
against him. There is no other choice. If you use defense against
Armstrong, you are committing suicide. You have to have the guts to
toe the line and trade blows until only one of you is left standing.
The only way to beat Armstrong is with a slug fest. You may not win,
but he will respect you and know you were there because you gave him
your best race. Send them home knowing you were there.
We had a better race today. Sorry about getting so upset at the ONCE
coach yesterday but he had a great opportunity to give us a great
race and gave us nothing. Today, at least they gave USPS a good
fight even though they lost the fight, they still fought. I guess
they found their coach and brought him to the race. :-)
ONCE used two attacks against USPS today. The first was actually an
attack for the White Jersey by Nozal but also got the USPS
attention. They had to watch this. Did you notice that Nozal didn't
work and just sat on after he and Dufaux caught Jalabert? That is a
standard move for some one going for the stage win but a quick look
at your cheat sheets should have told you he was trying to gain
enough time to take the lead for the White Jersey. That is why you
keep those cheat sheets handy. So you know what is really going on.
It works.
The second attack came at the base of the last climb when ONCE began
attacking USPS. They were trying to break the USPS climbing machine
but fail. AT LEAST THEY TRIED!!! You have to love them for that.
They have not given up and that is always good. You definitely can't
win if you don't try. If you're going down, go down swinging. Don't
go down a coward and ONCE is not going down a coward. Thanks for the
fight guys.
Speaking of fighting, how did you like our little boxing match? Poor
Moreau has had such a bad Tour this year with all the crashes he
decided to take it out on Sastre. I guess he thought that since he
was doing so bad at cycling that he would try boxing. We will see
what penalties come from this.
Armstrong and Beloki are finishing a fight for first while Galdeano,
Rumsas, and Botero are fighting for the last podium spot. Mean
while, USPS started moving Heras up on GC and he may soon be
fighting for that third podium spot. This little fight could get
nasty in the next one or two mountain stages. Heras has been beating
the other top five contenders by enough to move into third by the
end of the mountains but he will probably drop out of the top three
and even the top five in the next time trial because he loses a lot
of time in time trialing. He shouldn't be a threat to Beloki unless
USPS begins using some team tactics to get Heras ahead of Beloki.
Even then, Beloki will pass Heras back in the time trial.
I hope you noticed that Armstrong did something different today to
help Heras get second in the stage. He didn't follow on Heras' wheel
very long and attacked up the road. This forced Beloki to chase and
permitted Heras to sit on Beloki for a while. Heras then attacked
Beloki but couldn't stay away and returned to Beloki's rear wheel
only to sprint around Beloki for second in the stage. Remember, we
call this team leverage. Learn to use it.
It is kind of fun that I currently have four of my top six pic's
sitting in the first five. There is a good chance they will finish
there. Not bad for being 3,000 miles away.
There were some interesting and fun things which took place today.
Telekom and Lotto started the mix today going for points in the
first road sprint with Zabel finishing the day only one point ahead
of McEwen. This is turning into a very fun and exciting battle
between these two teams with CA and FDJ following not far behind
threatening to join battle with the first opportunity. This is fun
bike racing.
As soon as Telekom and Lotto slugged it out for the road points, the
other teams cut loose with thier attacks. They were clearly racing
for KOM points and it got very hot and fun with a lot of attacking,
counter attacking, dropping, and catching. The man of the day has to
be the great Jalabert. One more great day like today and the title
will belong to him again. He has shown great climbing speed and
strength. The only person he may have to hold off is Armstrong.
If Armstrong gains enough time on GC and gets bored, the next place
he will look will be at KOM. He is currently in second with 84
points to Jalabert's 142 points. This could turn into a fun battle.
The most fun thing that came out of today's stage was a great
tactical move by the ONCE coach to get Nozal into contention for the
White Jersey. What a great surprise. Normally, by this time, the
White Jersey is pretty much settled except for some changes caused
in the last time trial. But the ONCE coach had other things on his
mind.
The move by Nozal and Basso getting dropped too early really mixed
this pot. Suddenly, the race for the White Jersey could be the most
exciting race left. Nozal is now only 10 seconds behind Basso with
Vogondy only 1'07" down and Zubeldia only 1'20". We have four riders
within 1'20" of the White Jersey. Today, Basso lost 2'26" to Nozal
and Zubeldia who finished together and Vogondy lost 1'30" to them.
They are all close enough to win this one.
It is time for a little teams analysis for this fight so get those
cheat sheets out. Basso is the only thing Fassa has going for them
at this time and Zabeldia is the only thing Euskatel has to work on
so you know those two teams will fight tooth and nail for this
battle.
FDJ has three irons in the fire at this time. They have Cooke in
fourth for the Points Title but he is not really close to the
leaders and is only threatening O'Grady for a podium spot. Durand is
holding a podium spot (3rd) for the Combativity Title but he will
have to wait for the flatter stages to resume this battle. All this
means that defending Vogondy for a podium spot and possible win for
the White Jersey will be the teams priority in the mountain stages
except during road sprints. FDJ will want in on this mix.
ONCE also has three irons in the fire at this time. They are
supporting Beloki for first on GC, Galdeano for a podium spot on GC,
and, now, are stirring the pot for first for the White Jersey.
Between these four teams, we are very likely to see a really great
battle for the White Jersey. Keep your eye on this fight. This will
be fun. The ONCE coach has redeemed himself by starting this fight.
:-) Good job, coach!
You should have noticed that quite a few riders quit the race today
and that is beginning to show in team strength. This could make a
difference in the fight for one or more titles.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow we go back into the flats. Actually, it is more down hill
than flat and should be pretty fast. Lavelanet/Beziers is 171 km and
starts in the lower mountains with three KOM sprints at 8.5 (cat 3),
31 (cat 4), and 48.5 (cat 3) km. The road sprints are at 67.5 and
134.5 km.
I would expect to see Virenque and Dufaux along with some others go
for the KOM primes early and sit back to rest for the stage to Mont
Ventoux. The closing half of the stage will be dominated by Telekom,
Lotto, FDJ, and CA for the Points Title with two road primes and a
very fast finish in the last 103.5 kms. I would also expect to see
Durand and Renier trying to defend their podium spots for
Combativity. Then there will be the usual people out for the stage
win.
The big question is has ONCE dreamed up something to attempt to
force USPS to defend the lead in the flats in order to try to make a
little crack in the USPS climbing machine? If ONCE can get USPS legs
a little tired on the flats from defending the lead, it will be
easier to break that machine in the mountains. Remember that the
next day will be the single most significant mountain stage in this
Tour. So ONCE could force USPS to defend in the flats tomorrow and
for the first 100+ miles just before Mont Ventoux to tire those
climbing legs a little. Every little bit counts in this sport.
The thing working for USPS in tomorrow's stage is that the four
teams fighting for the Points Title will do a lot of the chasing in
the second half of that stage. That will save USPS legs. See how
those subtitles are so important.
The really big concern for every one tomorrow with that really long
down hill will be the peloton bunching and causing fast crashes that
could end anyone's dreams. Watch for those.
