Stage 15
Key Stage
July 21 Lodeve - Le Mont Ventoux 221 km
Wow, what a bike race. There was some really great racing and
tactics with some great and even surprising results. This race is
anything but over and is getting more interesting every day.
"What!", you say, "I thought Armstrong put the race away today!"
Wait until you read my tactical analysis. Remember that this is ONLY
the third of SIX days in the mountains and I saw cracks in the USPS
armor today. The ONCE coach is turning into a sly fox and is using
the strategy I told you would be most likely in trying to wear USPS
and Armstrong down over the entire six days in the mountains. He
also used today's break for a really neat little trick I will tell
you about later.
First, everyone knew that the peloton didn't want to chase just
before the climb on Mont Ventoux and they took advantage of it. The
climbers down on GC went on attack in the first kilometers of the
race. Nozal got off with 12 others but the other teams in the race
for the White Jersey wouldn't let that happen twice so that break
came back in quickly. Then 11 more went up the road including
Pradera (ONCE) and Serpellini (Lampre) who had Beloki in second and
Rumsas in fourth.
When the peloton and USPS were happy with the content of the break,
USPS went to the front to police the peloton and let the break go up
the road as a control. It was clear that everyone in the break was
there for a stage win with Verinque possibly looking to get into the
battle for KOM which he has won a number of times before. Did you
see Pradera and Serpellini using team leverage to not have to work
so their legs would be as fresh as possible for the climb? That is a
tactic used by riders who are a little weaker to try and win a
stage. You see, if your team leader is high on GC and not in a
break, you don't have to work to help that break gain ground on your
team leader so you can sleigh ride in the break. That is standard in
bike racing. No one is EVER expected to work against their team
leader. It looked like they were using this team leverage to win a
stage. Slick, huh?
So it looked like everyone including they were in for the stage win.
DON'T FORGET Pradera. The ONCE coach had something up else up his
sleeve that you will really like.
Note that the sprinting teams didn't want their sprinters going for
points in the road sprints just before Mont Ventoux and used the
break to eliminate that battle today. Again, they were using the
break as a control. You control the race with breaks.
Of course the pack didn't want to chase until the break began to
threaten some of the lower riders on GC and then Banesto and CSC
went to the front to help bring the break back in at least a little
to save their team leaders' spots on GC.
Using all this, three riders in the break were able to stay off for
the first three places in the stage with Verinque taking the stage
win and moving into third on KOM and 10th on GC. Also notice that
they did their long break the day before a rest day which meant they
could work harder to make the break work because they don't race
tomorrow. Another smart move. Have I told you this game is not for
stupid people? I call it bike chess.
Mean while, back in the peloton, the battle for GC continued to
develop with some interesting developments. USPS did their
impersonation of Molteni with the usual very hard pace setting....buuuuut....then
Heras broke and got dropped? Yep, all that pace setting finally
began to show its ugly head. Oh, but it gets worse (for Americans,
better for Spaniards)!!!
There were a number of ONCE riders left in the peloton and Azevedo
attacked. Tired USPS riders brought him back in. Beloki attacked and
tired USPS riders broke and hit the back door with a LOUD BANG!!!
Armstrong was suddenly all alone with three ONCE riders. They had
finally succeeded in stripping Armstrong's domestiques away from
him. Remember, I told you that is the first goal of a team. The
second is to begin working on the team leader and wear him down.
Remember, there are still three days left in the mountains. This
race is not over yet. Also remember that I told you that, if a rider
breaks in the mountains, he can lose anywhere from 5 minutes to over
10 minutes in one stage. A good example of this is Botero who broke
today and lost over 15 minutes. Armstrong only has 4'21" on Beloki.
Also remember that Armstrong is human and his team broke today.
Scary, huh?
Then Beloki attacked again but only Arstrong could answer. Next
Armstrong attacked and left Beloki behind doubling his lead over
Beloki before the top. But Beloki would have lost even more time
except.....remember Pradera? The ONCE coach had sent him ahead in
the break and made him not work so his legs would be fresh for the
climb. He was ahead of the action in the peloton which caused every
one to get dropped and Pradera had fresh legs so that, after
Armstrong dropped Beloki, Pradera was still ahead of Beloki with
fresh legs. He fell back and helped Beloki limit the loss to
Armstrong. Slick, huh?
If the ONCE coach had not sent Pradera ahead, his legs would have
been broken in all the attacking and he would have been dropped
behind Beloki and would not have been able to help Beloki. But the
ONCE coach used the break for the stage win to limit the damage
Armstrong did to Beloki today. Don't you just love bike chess? I
love it.
Brilliant move, coach. You get my coach of the day award.
So, where is the race now? Tomorrow is a rest day but the next day
is Vaison la Romaine/Les Deux Alpes which is the longest stage in
the Tour this year at 226.5 km with four cat 3 climbs, two cat 2
climbs, and finishes at the top of a cat 1 climb. I rated it as the
fourth most significant mountain stage in the Tour. The next day is
Les Deux Alpes/La Plagne which is a 179.5 km stage that has three HC
climbs and finishes at the top of the third one. Remember that I
told you in the Course Analysis that this stage could be the stage
which determined the out come of the race because it is the fifth
mountain stage following Mont Ventoux and the longest mountain stage
in the Tour. The riders legs will be very tired by this stage.
I expect ONCE to try to break the USPS legs again in the longest
mountain stage in the Tour and then work on Armstrong's legs again
over the three HC climbs the next day. Also remember that I told you
the last high mountain stage could settle the race if the riders
legs simply couldn't survive all the previous stages and the sixth
mountain stage. THEN the first day following the sixth high mountain
stage is not really a flat stage but is not considered a high
mountain stage yet it still has a number of climbs including one
category one climb and one category two climb. That stage could
finish off tired climbing legs even more. THEN the next day is the
time trial where tired legs can lose time just as easily.
Today, Armstrong made big gains in time but ONCE made big gains by
breaking USPS legs and getting to do a little work on Armstrong's
legs. Over the next five days, we will see who has made the biggest
gain. I wouldn't start the party yet.
In the battle for the White Jersey, Nozal had a bad day today and
Basso had a good day reversing their fortunes from yesterday. Basso
now leads this race by 6'5" but Zubeldia now has a podium spot and
is only 1'44" out of second place with three days left in the high
mountains and the time trial. This will still be an interesting
fight.
A new rider who is really starting to look good is Rumsas. Everyone
is focused on the Armstrong/Beloki battle while Rumsas is quietly
sneaking up the GC list. He is only 1'18" behind Beloki. A thought,
if ONCE breaks Armstrong's legs in the mountains and causes him to
lose a lot of ground, will Rumsas beat Beloki in the time trial
again and win the Tour? Oops, sitting there quietly can pay huge
dividends. It wouldn't be the first time that the two strongest
teams beat each other to death and a third party won the race. Keep
an eye on this. Rumsas is looking very good and is a threat. He
stayed with Beloki to the top of Mont Ventoux and beat him in the
first time trial.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow is a rest day and I am already working on a really great
coach's analysis for you. It should teach you some really neat
stuff. See you there.
