Stage 16
Key Stage
July 23 Vaison-la-Romaine - Les-Deux-Alpes 226.5 km
Unfortunately, they didn't do any reporting on the Tour site for
almost the first hour of today's race and we missed all the great
attacking and team tactics which started the race. It was stated
that there was a lot of attacking for break but that the sprint
teams of Telekom and Lotto were bringing those break attempts back
in so they could go for the first road sprint. But I noticed that
Lotto did have a rider in the break just before the first sprint so
there is a possibility that Lotto was working to keep a break up the
road for the first sprint to avoid the sprint.
But why would Lotto do this? The only team that has anything to gain
by having another sprint for points is Telekom. Until either Zabel
or McEwen score any more points for the Green Jersey, McEwen will
wear the Jersey. Every day that Lotto can prevent either rider from
gaining more points, is a guarantee that McEwen will wear the Green
Jersey the next day providing their sponsors with the extra
exposure. But for them to contest another road sprint is to risk
losing the jersey. The safe bet is for Lotto to prevent Zabel from
even having a chance at more points as long as possible.
Therefore, it is possible that it was Telekom bringing all those
breaks back in. They need to get Zabel back in the Green Jersey as
soon as possible. You have to understand that, not only does the
sponsor get extra exposure for each day his rider wears a jersey but
almost all top pro teams have a bonus program in the contract. Such
bonuses often state that the team will be paid a certain bonus for
each day that a rider on that team wears a certain jersey. With such
contracts, the riders make more money for every day one of them
wears a jersey.
In spite of the efforts to bring the breaks back in before the first
sprint, a break did manage to stay away until the first sprint was
contested. At that point, the peloton permitted that break and the
one chasing it to go up the road as a control. It was that break
that stayed off to win the stage.
I personally enjoyed watching Axel Merckx win all those KOM points
after having witnessed his father winning all those races decades
ago. I noticed that Botero didn't seem to contest the KOM sprints
too hard and it was because he was on a mission.
Botero broke on Mont Ventoux and lost over 15 minutes. What he did
today was take a big risk to move back up on GC. He is trying to get
back into the top five on GC. He knew that the peloton would let a
break go today and that it would most likely stay off and win as I
told you yesterday. He took the risk of going hard the day before
the third most significant mountain stage in this year's Tour to
move up on GC. His strategy is clearly to gain ground today, try not
to lose any or much ground tomorrow or any of the two days after
that, and try to move up in the time trial.
The first part of his plan worked. Now he has to make sure that he
doesn't lose any or, at least, much ground tomorrow because his legs
will be tired from his effort today. If Botero can keep his loses to
less than two minutes tomorrow, he can take enough time out of
Mancebo and Azevedo in the time trial to pass them back into fifth
place on GC.
(You really need to learn these tactics because the reality is that
only two to five riders will get to race for first place in a stage
race. The rest of you will spend your racing careers competing for
placings, subtitles, or stage wins. I do this Tour coverage to teach
you how to improve your own racing.)
You see Botero is 37" down on Mancebo because of today's effort and
Botero beat Mancebo in the last time trial by 2'41". Botero is also
only 20" down on Azevedo and beat him in the TT by 2'36".
Everyone else high on GC decided to spend today trying to save their
legs for tomorrow because they knew tomorrow was the more
significant mountain stage. To go hard today meant to lose ground
tomorrow on the three HC climbs.
But you say, "Didn't ONCE attack USPS on the last climb?" No, Botero
was far enough up the road to threaten both Galdeano and Azevedo so
they put a paceline on the front of the peloton to bring the break
back in enough to keep those positions. Why do you think Azevedo
attacked on the decent before the last climb? He was trying to get
the pack to increase their chasing to bring Botero back in more. It
failed so he waited for the peloton and ONCE put a train together to
do the job.
You might also say, "Didn't Beloki attack Armstrong?" No, Rumsas saw
Beloki and Armstrong watching each other and thought he might sneak
away with an attack with the other riders attempting to get off and
get a stage win or placing to gain ground on Beloki so he could be
close enough to beat Beloki in the TT. You see, Rumsas is 2'18" down
on Beloki and Beloki is climbing better than Rumsas. Rumsas beat
Beloki in the last TT by only 1'13" so he needs to put at least 1.5
minutes on Beloki before the next time trial to get second on GC.
The only way to gain that time is to catch Beloki watching Armstrong
on a relatively insignificant climb and go up the road. Rumsas made
the move, Beloki countered the move, and Armstrong countered the
counter.
Some one suggested that I warn you about misinformation by riders,
coaches, and teams. He told me that, yesterday, Beloki stated in an
interview that he was going to quit trying to take first away from
Armstrong and start working on preventing Rumsas from taking second.
That doesn't make sense to me.
Beloki is climbing better than Rumsas so that, if Beloki just keeps
racing against Armstrong, he should put at least another minute into
Rumsas tomorrow. That should easily put Beloki out of reach of
Rumsas in the TT.
If Beloki were going to shift his attention to Rumsas, it would be
to get Galdeano moved back ahead of Rumsas. Galdeano is 2'11' down
on Rumsas and only beat Rumsas in the TT by six seconds. For
Galdeano to beat Rumsas, he must do it before the time trial. You
know ONCE would want to get both of their top riders on the podium
behind Armstrong and, since Rumsas isn't that much of a threat to
Beloki if Beloki just keeps racing against Armstrong, it would not
make sense for Beloki to shift his attention to Rumsas for any other
reason. Therefore, his statement is probably misinformation meant,
along with today's actions, to throw Armstrong off.
Today, ONCE also made it clear with their actions that they are
trying to get Azevedo into fifth place. You see Azevedo is only 17"
down on Mancebo and beat him in the TT by 5". That is why Mancebo
attacked the peloton at the bottom of the last climb. He needs to
secure fifth spot plus Botero is a threat to Mancebo, if Botero can
keep from losing much ground tomorrow after going hard today.
Everything the pro's do is for a reason. For example, USPS had Heras
attack today at the bottom of the climb and he went up the road. He
was trying to gain as much ground as possible in the mountains
because he lost over six minutes in the time trial. Heras is the
rider who is most vulnerable to dropping out of the top 10 in the
time trial. He needs to pad his time by gaining as much time as
possible before the time trial. This is exactly what different
riders and teams were working on today since today's stage was only
the fifth most significant mountain stage in the Tour.
Bicycle racing is a time game. We do battle for seconds and minutes.
This is especially true in stage racing. You must follow the
standings with a calculator in your hand. Some riders don't do well
in the time game on stage racing so we added in some points races to
make stage racing more interesting and exciting. Those coaches
follow the peloton in their support vehicle with the standings and a
calculator in hand. We are constantly figuring and refiguring the
standings. It is bike chess.
If nothing changes on GC between now and the TT, most likely the top
four wont change, Botero will move into fifth ahead of Mancebo and
Azevedo, Heras will drop out of the top ten, and Leipheimer will
move into eighth ahead of Basso. But the appropriate teams will
spend the next three days trying to prevent those movements and
create other movements. That is bike racing.
The top nine would look like this:
Armstrong
Beloki
Rumsas
Galdeano
Botero
Mancebo
Azevedo
Leipheimer
Basso
This is what some teams are trying to prevent and others are trying
to achieve.
The announcer finally did something today that I wish they would do
more of. They gave the average speed for the race up Mont Ventouxas
being about 14 mph. Now you know how fast you have to climb on a
7.5% grade to stay with Armstrong. Remember that he was the only one
going that fast. Also remember that the attacks were probably at
least 5 mph faster so you know what you have to do for speed work on
a 7.5% grade to go with Armstrong's attacks, about 15 to 20 mph.
Blows your mind when you realize that most cat 5's call 20 mph or
slower race speed on flat ground. That is the difference in what
proper training can do for your body.
The only change in GC today was Botero moving into seventh. The only
other change on the standings was Merckx moving into a tie with
Virenque for fourth on KOM.
From the limited information we had at the start, it appears that
Jalabert and Virenque tried to get off today but fail so they
settled with gleaning remaining points for the two cat 2 climbs
before the finish.
Tomorrow
Les Deux Alpes/La Plagne is the third most significant mountain
stage in this year's Tour covering three HC climbs in 179.5 km with
the finish at the top of the third HC climb. The sprints are at 90.5
and 142 km. Maybe, the first sprint will be contested by the
sprinters. I doubt it. The climbs are at 34, 112 km, and 179.5 km.
Most likely a break will go up the road on the first HC climb which
starts just after the start of the race.
Expect to see both Jalabert and Virenque along with other climbers
head up the road on the first HC climb to garnish those big KOM
points. Jalabert could clinch the KOM title tomorrow with a good
ride by taking the first two HC climbs.
The second HC climb is actually the toughest of the three with the
climb to the finish being the second toughest climb for the day.
Therefore, expect to see some kind of effort on the second HC climb
that will probably at least drop most of the riders in the peloton
and/or break. The final battle for the stage could actually get
started on this climb and finish on the last climb. These two climbs
back-to-back will be very tough and will break a lot of legs. Expect
to see quite a few riders abandon tomorrow with some possibly not
making cut off. This will be a first class battle. Tomorrow, ONCE
must show their hand. Will it be to defend second, try to take third
and fifth, or try to take first? What do you think? What would you
do and why? The bike chess continues tomorrow. See you there.
