Stage 2

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Stage 2

July 7 Luxembourg - Luxembourg 192.5 km

Today went very much as I expected. The first break went just before the first KOM prime and stayed for some time. It also forced some teams to show their hands. CSC and Lampre both went to the front and did work in a clear effort to set Jalabert and Rumsas up for a shot at the Yellow Jersey. If you had referred to the lists I told you to make up, you would have seen during the race that Jalabert was in second on GC and defending the Points lead while Rumsas was in third on GC and Points.

Then on Cote de Wormeldange, just like I warned you, a number of riders including Armstrong and Botero attacked and shook things up for a while. This attack caused Moreau to get caught behind a break after crashing earlier and the chase tired Moreau enough that he later dropped and lost 3'20" on the peloton putting him out of any reasonable chance for the Yellow Jersey.

But everything came back together with team after team working to get their rider in position to gain points or time. Finally, Telekom took control to set Zabel for the lead in the Points Title and the Yellow Jersey but Bertogliat took a risk and made a great move one kilometer before the finish and managed to hold it gaining the Yellow Jersey, second in Points, and the lead for the White Jersey. He should get a good contract next year and make a little money in show money and endorsements over the next year.

Notice that USPS eagerly gave up the Yellow Jersey so they wouldn't get trounced defending it too early. Also, CSC only did a modest defense for Jalabert telling me they want to save something for Hamilton's try at the Yellow Jersey later. Oh yes, watch to see over the next few days if Hamilton sustained injuries in his crash today. This is one of those little notes you need to make on your rider list in pencil so you can erase it.

I mentioned a while ago that Moreau lost over 3 minutes. You only find these things out if you read the bottom of the GC list. You can learn a lot by reading the bottom of the GC list. You see whether there were any DNF's, who lost time and is no threat, and that the top subtitle riders slide out the back to rest after they have decided to not try for their subtitle or a stage win for the day. The reason the subtitle racers and riders trying to pick up a stage win slide out the back is because you can rest riding the remaining of the race at a slower speed to permit your legs to be as fresh as possible for a later effort. They don't care about GC time and only have to make cut off time to keep racing. Learn from these people.

Tomorrow

The Luxembourg/Sarrebruck stage is 181 km long over rolling hills with road sprints at 45, 95, and 155.5 km. There are only two cat 4 climbs at 60 and 132.5 km. The last climb is a 6.4% grade and about 49 km from the finish so there COULD be a move on it. It may be a little too far from the finish for most riders to consider a move on a flat stage. I think that some one will probably try something.

Lampre has a bit of work for tomorrow. They have Bertogliati in the Yellow Jersey, White Jersey, and second on Points. They also have Dierckxsens in second for Combativity and Rumsas in 4th on GC. You might see either Rumsas or Dierckxsens go up the road to force the early chase and protect the Yellow Jersey for the team. He will not be racing against his team mate but for him.

Telekom will be working for Zabel and Lotto will be working for McEwen for the Points Title. Expect to see Cofidis to work to put Millar back into the White Jersey and possibly also into the Yellow Jersey. Expect AG2R to defend the lead of Berges for Combativity and his second for KOM. Halgand of Delatour has already moved into the fight for KOM just like last year and we have gotten our first glimps of some former subtitle contenders such as Jacky Durand, Verbrugghe, O'Grady, Virenque, and others. Expect to see more of them.

Now, if you had marked your rider list like I told you, all of this would be obvious. You can do this by putting something like a P-1 by Zabel for first in the Points standing or W-2 and GC-6 for Millar.

Some of the action to look for from various teams over the next few days or until significant changes take place are as follows.

Telekom Zabel - Points
Cofidis Millar - White and Yellow
CSC Jalabert - Yellow
CA O'Grady - Points
Domo Virenque and Bruylandts - KOM
Fassa Basso - White
Baldato - Points
FDJ Mengin - KOM and Combativity
Casar and Cooke - White
Lotto McEwen - Points
Verbrugghe - Combativity
Lampre Bertogliati - Yellow, White, and Points
Dierckxsens - Combativity
Yellow will be most significant
Euskaltel Zubeldia - White
AG2R Berges - Combativity and KOM
Delatour Halgand - KOM
Lefevre - KOM and Combativity
Brochard - Yellow and Points

Of course there will be others entering the battles and some leaving as things develop. The teams will develop a focus towards just one or two riders and titles as the race develops and some riders drop out of contention for titles. Watching these subtitle races will permit you to see how the race evolves better and learn to anticipate actions.

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