Stage 20
Key Stage
July 27 Regnie-Durette - Macon TT 50 km
I am hoping that, with the accuracy of my predictions, you will
realize that this sport is much more predictable than the media
experts tell you. If you really know the sport, you can regularly
make very accurate predictions for the events in a race. This is
very important in anticipating the actions and results for the race
in that, by using these predictions, you can better design the
training techniques, strategies, and tactics which will regularly
lead to winning and placing.
Below are my predictions for the top ten on GC following today's
stage (on the left) and the actual standings following the stage (on
the right.) You will notice that I was off on the standings by only
one rider in that I expected Basso to pass Heras pushing Sastre out
of the top 10. But Heras had a better TT than expected (probably
because of the climb) and managed to hold onto nineth place. All of
my other placings are in the exact order I had anticipated.
You should also notice that the times down were relatively close for
most of the riders. My two worst misses were for Botero, who must
have had a bad ride to drop that much, which was off by only 2'11"
and Heras who was off by -1'42". The rest of my estimated times were
within 1.5 minutes with some as close as 32".
|
Place |
My Predictions |
Results |
Difference |
|
First |
Armstrong |
Armstrong |
|
|
Second |
Beloki 6'45"
|
Beloki 7'17" |
0'32"
|
|
Third |
Rumsas 7'45"
|
Rumsas 8'17" |
0'32"
|
|
Fourth |
Botero 11'00"
|
Botero 13'11" |
2'11"
|
|
Fifth |
Galdeano 12'30"
|
Galdeano 13'54"
|
1'24"
|
|
Sixth |
Azevedo 14'45"
|
Azevedo 15'44" |
0'59"
|
|
Seventh |
Mancebo 15'00"
|
Mancebo 16'05" |
1'05"
|
|
Eighth |
Leipheimer 16'30"
|
Leipheimer 17'11" |
0'41" |
|
Ninth |
Basso 17'45"
|
Heras 17'18" |
-1'42"
|
|
Tenth |
Heras 19'00"
|
Sastre 19'05"
|
------
|
I hope you also noticed that four of my top six placings were in the
top five, in the exact order I had predicted, and Armstrong and
Botero are in the exact places I had predicted.
The better you know the sport, the better you can predict the race.
The better you can predict the race, the better you can design your
program to develop the fitness, strategies, and tactics to win the
race. Learn the sport.
Me being able to consistently predict the out come of races and how
the races would be ridden is part of why I was able to take
beginners off the street, train them up, put together teams and
consistently win and place against internationally ranked riders,
teams, and coaches in Men's pro, Women's, Junior's, and Master's
racing. I knew what the other teams would do, knew how to prepare
for it, and had my riders ready for the race. It works.
I do hope you realize that, if I were coaching a pro team in Europe,
I would know the teams riders, and coaches much better and be able
to give more accurate predictions. That should be common sense. If
you knew how little work and research I actually put into my
predictions, you wouldn't believe it. I just know the sport very
well.
The only significant changes on the standings was Galdeano passing
Azevedo and Leipheimer passing Heras as predicted.
Tomorrow
Melun/Paris is the last stage at 144 km with only two intermediate
road sprints for points at 54 and 81 kms. This race is very flat.
Expect a mad rush to win the last stage with a heavy battle between
Telekom and Lotto for the Points Title. In spite of it being very
flat, expect the breaks to go early and long with Telekom and Lotto
trying to pull the break back in for the stage win. They will
probably succeed.
A race to watch other than the Points race and the stage win is the
race for the Combativity Title. There are at least four riders
within four points of a podium spot and five within only 19 points
of second place. One long break can earn at least that many points
so you can expect to see a really good team battle between BJR, CA,
RAB, LAM, AND LOT. The riders in contention are Renier, Hushovd,
Boogerd, Dierckxsens, and Aerts. Expect them to be very active
tomorrow.
Oops, did you catch that last tactical mistake? Lotto and Aerts wont
be too concerned with the battle for Combativity because they will
want to hold onto the lead (top podium spot) for the Points Title
which is one of the big three titles. Plus Lotto is down to seven
riders while Telekom still has their full nine riders. Oooo, do you
mean that those lost pairs of legs will effect their strategy for
tomorrow? Yep, if they do get in the battle for Combativity, it will
either be very limited or could be very costly for the Points Title.
Expect them to save everything for the Points Title win.
One more stage and this race becomes history!
