Stage 6
July 11 Soisson - Rouen 195 km
Before we get into today's stage, I need to address something. Last
night, for the fun of it, I went surfing on the posting board for
the Tour site and saw someone who needed some help with no real help
being offered. I joined the board so I could post an answer to their
plea for help. While on that board, I saw some of the most ignorant
and simple-minded drivel I have seen coming from some US "racing
experts." I was amazed at how many people were of the ignorant
opinion that Lance Armstrong is invincible and that he has won three
straight Tours because of his own might.
Armstrong, himself, would tell you other wise. Yes, Armstrong is
probably the strongest stage racer in the world but have you noticed
how few single day classics he has won? He is not Godzilla alla
bicycle.
One of the reasons Armstrong has been so dominant in stage racing is
because he has had a team strong enough to keep him close enough and
fresh enough to dominate his competition when it comes time to do
so. Without them, he could not have won even one Tour. Imagine
Armstrong in Leipheimer's place, being down over two minutes days
before the first time trial. That would be a tuff hole for even
Armstrong to dig out of.
Do you remember what I told you earlier about the possibility that
two teams having two strong GC riders like Galdeano, Beloki, Botero,
and Sevilla could spell trouble for Armstrong? Take a good look, it
is spelling that trouble. Armstrong is in the worse tactical trouble
he has be in for the Tour in four years. He has not only lost two of
his best domestiques but they are riding as team leaders against him
and, even though Leipheimer is over two minutes down, Armstrong will
have to defend against his eventual charge in the mountains. Then
you have Botero and Sevilla within three minutes of Armstrong which
can be achieved given the right tactical situation and you can bet
they are not sitting in their rooms whining and crying because their
team lost them that time. You know they are also planning a charge
in the mountains. But worst of all is the position ONCE has
Armstrong in. He is sitting behind two strong GC riders on the
strongest team in the world and with Armstrong having admitted that
he needs to be concerned about Beloki. This is that "chase my team
mate while I rest on your wheel" game I warned you about.
There are three big questions here. The first is whether ONCE can
keep the game close enough after the time trial to play the game in
the mountains. Second, can they play the game well enough to beat
Armstrong? Third, can Armstrong beat this game against such a strong
team and GC riders while also having to defend against Hamilton and
Leipheimer? This race is anything but over yet there were ignorant
people on that site saying that everyone else was racing for second?
Get real.
I can tell you what is going on behind closed doors. The ONCE coach
is talking to the coach for Botero and Sevilla about sending one of
the two ONCE GC riders up the road on a long mountain break with
either Botero or Sevilla forcing USPS to chase long and hard while
the other ONCE GC rider and the other Kelme rider rest on Armstong's
wheel. You also know that both Hamilton and Leipheimer are
anticipating the same thing coming from ONCE and Kelme and are
making plans to take advantage of it. Leipheimer may even be dealt
into the game with the hope of him making up some ground on a long
break.
Now imagine being Armstrong in the middle of this mess. If you have
gotten arrogant and cocky about being invincible, you are about to
get beat. You have to keep your head on your shoulders or you will
lose. Armstrong is sitting boxed behind Beloki and Galdeano. His
best hope is to put as much time as he can on them in the TT. ONCE
has two options. One is to gain a little extra time for Galdeano
with a minimum of effort like picking up some time bonuses with a
short break just before a prime. The other is to protect their GC
riders' legs as much as possible between now and the time trial so
they can do their best TT ride. They have shown that they can stay
close enough to Armstrong in the TT to be within striking distance
in the mountains with the right team tactics. Watch to see what they
do.
I don't remember if I told you about this on this site but in 1990 I
took my little pro-am team (one pro and a handful of amateurs) from
the 7-day Casper Wyoming Classic Stage Race to Super Week with one
day for travel and one day for rest between the two events. You know
my team had to be tired AND we showed up in time for the fourth
event in Super Week which meant we were starting down on points. The
Italian pro, Robert Gaziolli, who was ranked 26th in the world at
that time and was considered almost invincible in US criterium
racing while riding for the Coors pro team, had gained the lead in
the first event and had been opening that lead since. None of the
pro teams present could stay Gaz's assault. This was against about a
dozen pro teams including riders from 7-Eleven, Castarama, Eddy
Merckx-Lotto, and others.
At the first criterium, I watched my one pro get his butt ridden
right off of Gaz's wheel in the final sprint because he couldn't
spin that fast in his biggest gear. I changed my team structure and
strategy to keep that from happening again. Over the next week, my
amateurs took my one pro past all the other pro teams and pushed Gaz
out of first place. Of course, it infuriated Lynn Pettyjohn who flew
in more pro's to put Gaz back into the lead, not against the pro's,
of course, but against my "upstart pro-am team" as Lynn called it.
Zanolli and the other pro's Lynn flew in told me they weren't very
happy with me (something about being urinated off at me :-)) because
Lynn had pulled them out of a stage race they had earned placings
and money in and all they had to do was to finish the stage race to
get their money. None of them liked my "upstart pro-am team" costing
them money.
Of course, they were able to return Gaz to first place after about
three or four more races but we were one of only two teams to lead
Super Week that year because none of the other pro teams was able to
do what we did. My point here is, if I can do that to an
internationally ranked pro on an internationally ranked pro team
coached by an internationally ranked coach with nothing more than an
"upstart pro-am team", what can you do to a pro with one of the best
pro teams in the world. Do not ever forget that PROPERLY DEVELOPED
BICYCLE ROAD RACING IS A TEAM SPORT. Any one can be beat if you use
the right tactics.
It should be noted that that little pro of mine, never, ever did
anything like that after we parted ways. He was good but not that
good and definitely not a Beloki or Galdeano. Oh yes, I have often
wondered how funny it would have been (for everyone except Lynn) if
I had had the money to fly in more amateurs after Lynn flew in more
pro's. :-) Devious, aren't I?
Now, back to the bike race.
Today's stage started with a bang. Like I told you, the riders began
racing for a stage win and the two subtiltes of Combativity and
Points. Jacky Durand jumped into it several times to get a stage win
and extend his points for Combativity. Verbrugghe (who would of
guessed :-)) got in on it but all their breaks were brought back in
because of USPS forcing ONCE to defend the Yellow Jersey.
It looks like Armstrong didn't sit around waiting for ONCE to beat
him up. He went on the offensive and began beating them up. Don't
you just love riders who use offense? Take control and make things
happen!!! Yes, my favorite saying.
USPS suddenly changed their racing activity and any time any team
makes a change to their racing activity, you better know there is a
reason for it. Suddenly, USPS domestiques started going on break.
They very quickly became virtual leaders and forced ONCE to defend
the Yellow Jersey. They were using relay attacking to force ONCE on
the defensive while Armstrong rested in the pack. The idea is to
break enough ONCE legs over the next few days to force Galdeano and
Beloki to do some chasing in the flats before the TT and mountains.
USPS kept ONCE working for the first 75 kms of the race. Break those
legs and force those riders to go backwards!
You can bet that as long as ONCE continues to defend the Yellow
Jersey, USPS will continue this strategy. Remember that ONCE made
this same strategic mistake in 2000. We will see if they make it
again.
Shortly after the feed zone, ONCE got lucky and a group of five got
up the road who were all far enough down on GC that ONCE could let
them go knowing the sprinter teams would bring them far enough back
in so that ONCE could keep the lead. ONCE kept an easy tempo for
damage control and let the break get out to almost five minutes
before the sprinter teams went to work bringing the break back in.
But the sprinter teams misjudged their chase time and didn't catch
the break before the finish.
It was another fun stage with a lot of good team tactics. It caused
Kirsipuu to jump to fourth in the Points Title and Dierckxsens moved
up to third for the Combativity Title. Nothing else really changed
pretty much as I expected. Note that the break did stay off as I
told you it might in spite of the fact that some US "experts" said
it was foolish for riders to try to get off and stay off. Obviously,
these people have no clue about how and why breaks stay off.
Tomorrow
The Forges les Eaux/Alencon stage will be another long one at 199.5
km. The three sprints will be at 47, 133.5, and 164.5 km with two
cat 4 climbs at 61 and 71.5 km. Notice that there will be one sprint
and both climbs within 25 km of each other early in the stage.
Expect to see the KOM riders use the first sprint to make a break
for both climbs. Also expect to see other riders waiting to take
advantage of this attack to go for a stage win and gain points on
the Combativity and Points titles.
This stage will start with a bang and be hard fought. Also expect to
see USPS trying to break ONCE legs by forcing ONCE to chase USPS
domestiques in defense of the Yellow Jersey. If Once doesn't
relinquish the Yellow Jersey soon, they will pay the price in the
mountains. They do not want to defend the Yellow Jersey for the next
three days and then do the time trial and mountains.
Some of the riders to watch for tomorrow include Durand, Berges,
Mengin, Halgand, Chavanel, Renier, Verbrugghe, Agnoluto, Hushovd,
Jalabert, and others. ONCE has three choices. Either refuse to
defend the Yellow Jersey, send some one like Olano up the road and
force the other teams to chase him, or lose any hope at winning the
race. We will see what they decide to do.
Note that this is one of those stages where a break may or may not
stay off but there is a reasonable chance one may. Tomorrow should
be another fun day at the Tour.
