July 16 -
Rest Day & Coaches Analysis
We must remember that the reason for this tactical exercise is for
me to teach you team strategies and tactics. I strive to achieve
this goal by explaining what is taking place during the race from a
strategic point of view which must also include fitness evaluations.
I have received only a few emails from people who are a little upset
because I am pointing out possibilities they don't want to hear. You
have to realize that I am not the coach who may have overtrained
Lance and I am not the coach who may be strategically blowing the
race for Lance. I AM the coach who is reading the race to you so you
can better understand what is going on in the race. I am the
messenger, don't shoot the messenger. I am also the teacher, if you
shoot the teacher, you will quit learning.
So far, we have seen that Lance is off form and Bruyneel has done
worse than take the sucker punch that the Tour organizers programmed
into this year's Tour. USP was broken enough on L'Alpe d'Huez that
Lance had to take a beating with relay attacking from Beloki,
Hamilton, Vinokourov, and Mayo while other riders were able to catch
and finish with Lance. He did not have the strength to just crush
his competition this year but he did managed to hold on well enough
to take a marginal lead on Individual GC. He didn't even have the
strength to keep riders from catching him after they had been
dropped by his team mates just before his team mates were crushed by
Beloki. They beat Lance up but they did not break him, yet.
You have to realize that not only did Lance not gain ANY time on ANY
of his top competitors (8 riders finished with him or ahead of him)
on the most significant climb, L'Alpe d'Huez, in the most
significant mountain stage in the Tour, but he actually lost time to
most of them. Two riders gained from 1'30" to over 2" on the climb
to finish ahead of Lance AND five others caught him on the climb
while he was chasing and attacking AFTER those riders had been
dropped by Beltran's effort and Beloki's attack. That means that
seven riders put time into Lance on the most significant climb in
the Tour. Tactically, Lance lost the most significant stage in the
Tour while he was going hard. What are they going to do to him in
the rest of the mountain stages?
Lance should have finished with at least a two minute lead on Beloki
after L'Alpe d'Huez. He should have had a comfortable lead going
into the next mountain stage. He didn't.
The next day, in a mountain stage in which Lance should have rested,
ONCE broke the USP team, again, and got at Lance's legs again just
before Beloki crashed out of the race. Bruyneel's strategy has
failed in two consecutive stages this year but Lance has managed to
hold on to a marginal lead. I must repeat, a marginal lead.
Vinokourov is only 12" behind and there are five riders within 2'10"
of Lance when he should already have a lead of at least 2 minutes on
just second place.
If you don't think that USP was broken, then you have to answer some
questions. Where were all those expensive domestiques who were hired
to chase the attacks against Lance when Beloki, Hamilton, Vinokourov,
and Mayo were attacking Lance? What do you think, they were sitting
on Lance's wheel and Lance was protecting his domestiques by
covering the attacks for them? Those riders are hired and paid to
protect Lance from attacks by other riders by covering those attacks
for Lance. They are professionals and, when they are not there to
cover the attacks by other pro's, it means their legs were broken
and they can't be there to cover those attacks. USP has been broken
in the last two mountain stages with four more mountain stages
remaining. Clearly, Lance is in trouble.
Part of this has to do with the basis for the concept around which
the Bruyneel strategy is built. The basic concept is that a very
powerful team will tire out and drop all but a few of the best
riders who will also be tired from the pace, then a superior team
leader will attack and break the remaining competitors.
The problem with this strategy is that it only works if your team
leader is significantly superior in fitness than his competition.
You have to realize that your team leader is having to work as hard
on your riders' wheels as his competition is and, if he is not
significantly stronger than them, he is being made tired at least as
fast and possibly even faster than his competition. Lance has
already shown that he is not significantly superior to his
competition this year so the strategy MUST fail.
In the first flat stage since the mountains, we saw that USP towed
the peloton for most of that stage. True, they did not go very fast,
only about 25 to 26 mph, but the peloton riders were doing 30% less
work than USP on a flat stage when USP should have been resting. The
peloton should be 30% more rested tonight than USP. If they continue
with this strategy, they will be less rested than the other teams
going into the time trial where even the domestiques will have to
ride reasonably hard to make cut off or they will not be around to
ride for Lance in the mountains the next four days. With all this,
they will be far less rested when they reach the mountains than the
other teams and will be even easier to break again. Always remember
that bicycle road racing, especially stage racing, is a race of
energy efficiency.
Even if USP manages to not do much work in the remaining flat stage
and with the rest day, a lot of damage has been done which cannot be
undone before the mountains, much less the end of the Tour. Based on
what I have seen so far, what I expect to see is that USP will
continue with their forcing the pace in the last flat stage and then
in the Toulouse (Cite de l'Espace) - Plateau de Bonascre mountain
stage (the second most significant mountain stage in this Tour) to
set up Lance for the last climb. I expect to see the team broken by
the beginning of the last climb again and Lance will take another
beating that he may not survive. USP may even be broken on the first
of the two major climbs giving Lance's competition more time to work
him over.
Even if he survives that beating, the next day, in the Saint-Girons
- Loudenvielle mountain stage, which is the fourth most significant
mountain stage, I expect Bruyneel to continue what appears to be his
only strategy of putting what is left of USP on the front to police
the stage and force the pace. If this happens, USP will blow all to
pieces before the end of the stage leaving Lance completely exposed
to chase alone against a barage of attackers, Vinokourov, Mayo,
Hamilton, Ullrich, Manceb, and Zubeldia. Even if he doesn't break
and lose time during this stage, Lance's legs will be trashed going
into the third most significant mountain stage in this Tour, the
Bagneres-de-Bigorre - Luz-Ardiden stage.
If this happens, Lance's legs will be totally destroyed by the climb
to Luz-Ardiden causing him to lose ground and the Tour. If he tries
to gain ground in the last mountain stage on the next day, he will
be devastated and lose more time. His legs will be so trashed that
he will lose more time in the time trial.
At this point, you have to understand a little racer psychology. At
the start of the first set of mountains, most of the riders
currently strong enough to just stay with Lance had to be at least a
little intimidated because of Lance having won the Tour the last
four years, his commanding victors in these Tours, his team's
performance in the team time trial this year, and the fact that they
are still humans. I have see this intimidation in riders, even
pro's, for 35 years. It is a normal psychological phenomenon in
sports.
Having studied this phenomenon for over 35 years, I also know the
normal progression from intimidation to fearlessness. Basically, it
works this way. These riders who were strong enough to stay with
Lance on that last climb but were intimidated by him, were frozen to
his wheel even after they had gained time by chasing him down. They
sat fearfully waiting for Lance to crush them on the climb up L'Alpe
d'Huez afraid to move for fear of incurring the wrath and inevitable
destruction of and by Lance. But they did manage to stay with Lance
to the top of the climb even against his best attacks, chasing, and
counter attacks in the battle against Beloki, Vinokourov, Mayo, and
Hamilton. In the next day's battle with Beloki and Vinokourov, they
again watched fearfull that Lance would unleash his fearfull power
against them and destroy them. But, to their amazement, they had now
survived both battles finishing on Lance's wheel.
Over the next four days, they will think about the fact that they
had not only survived the two battles in tact but had actually
gained time on Lance in one of those two battles and they will say
to themselves, "You know, I not only survived the two battles in the
Alpes, but I also gained time on Lance in one of those two battles,
AND I still had something left in my legs at the end of the stages.
That wasn't that bad." They will think about this for a while and
come to the natural conclussion, "You know, I can beat Lance,"
whether they can or not.
Over the last 54 years of my life, God has taught me that for some
one to have the courage to wage war against you, it does not matter
whether they can beat you or whether you think they can beat you.
The only thing that matters as to whether they will wage war against
you is WHETHER THEY THINK THEY CAN BEAT YOU. If they think they can
beat you, then they will try to beat you. Bet on it.
When these riders begin to believe they can beat lance, in the next
mountain stages, they will join battle increasing the attacking
against Lance, increasing his already difficult work load, and
increasing the probability that he will be broken by someone. They
are hoping they will be one of those someone's when he does break.
It would only be natural for the riders who have not yet attacked
Lance but have managed to stay with him and even gained ground on
him during the most significant mountain stage in the Tour to join
the battle against him in the next three most significant mountain
stages. After all, it is only logical that, if they can stay with
and gain ground against Lance in the most significant mountain
stage, then they should be able to wage war against him in less
significant mountain stages.
I believe that these riders will join the battle against Lance in
the coming mountain stages. It will only get worse for Lance because
his competitors have "smelled the blood" of Lance Armstrong and you
know they liked the smell of it. They will want more and will want
to taste it this time. You can bet the battle will get very fierce
in the coming mountains.
It does not matter whether your competition can beat you, it does
not matter whether you believe your competition can beat you, it
only matters whether they believe they can beat you. If THEY believe
they can beat you, they will try. It works.
There is another psychological phenomenon which you may see happen.
If Lance does break, everyone who is still with him at that time,
even the riders who are struggling to stay with him, will see him
suddenly crumble, get an incredible adrenaline dump into their
blood, Psych up beyond their greatest imagination, and suddenly have
the strength to ride like they have never ridden before attacking
and blowing past a struggling Lance Armstrong. I have seen this
happen dozens of times in races. This kind of feeding frenzy could
cause a rider like Lance to go from first to tenth on just one
climb.
The human mind is a very powerful and interesting thing. And, when
you learn to understand these kinds of mental phenomenon, you
quickly realize that sports are better than 95% psychology. It
works.
If you don't believe you can do it, you are right, you can't. But,
if you do believe you can do it, it greatly increases the
probability that you can. It works. Try it. Believe in yourself.
It is much easier to hurt when you know you can beat them than it is
when you know you can't.
You will lose more races with your head than you will lose with your
legs.
Next Year?
But, even if Lance wins this Tour, we must take a look at what could
happen next year. First, we must imagine how much more difficult it
would have been for Lance this year if Galdeano had been permitted
in the Tour to help Beloki, Azevedo had been on form, and Beloki had
not crashed out of the Tour. If Hamilton had not gotten sick this
Spring, had not broken his collar bone in the first stage, and were
in better form. If Ullrich and Botero were in better form. If
Leipheimer had not crashed out of the Tour. Plus we must remember
that Mayo, Zubeldia, Basso, and Mancebo are young, improving riders
who could easily be better next year than this year.
Even if Lance wins this year's Tour, he is taking enough of a
beating that it will greatly encourage all the top riders to get in
better shape for next year. You know that they will really be
psyched to the max and Lance better be in better form than he has
ever been or he will get beat really bad. Especially since they have
figured out how to beat Bruyneel's strategy.
If you just put half of that together against Lance in his current
form, you realize that it is very probable that Lance will not win
next year's Tour, IF HE DOESN'T FIX WHAT IS BROKEN! If Lance doesn't
get back to form and still manages to win this year's Tour, I expect
to see him do a Miguel Indurain next year.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage will be flat except for one cat 3 climb at about
half way through the 153.5 km stage. There are only two road primes
mid to late in the stage. This is also the last stage before the
first individual time trail so many riders will probably want to
take it easy. Expect two possible separate battles to be waged. The
first would be a group of riders who are really behind on GC to go
up the road on a long break for the stage win. I expect the peloton
to permit a fairly good sized break to get away early to control the
peloton so they can rest. Towards the end of the stage, at least
some of the teams with sprinters who have a chance at the Points
Title may lead a chase to bring the break back in for a sprint. But,
with this stage being the day before the time trial, it may be a
repeat of the flat stage on July 15.
Again, keep an eye out on how much USP works at the front just
before the time trial and mountains.
