Course Analysis

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Course Analysis

In this year's Tour de France, there are TEN significant stages worth watching for GC. That is half the stages in the Tour and is HUGE! These are the team time trial, both individual time trials and the SEVEN high mountain stages. There are several significant aspects to this year's Tour. First, there are seven high mountain stages with three mountain top finishes and a lot of long, hard climbing. Before this, six mountain stages were considered to be a lot so this could easily be one of the most challenging Tours ever and it will clearly be biased towards climbing.

Second, the first and most significant mountain stage, where the lead is likely to be taken, is much earlier in the race requiring the team to defend the lead longer making it easier for the other teams to break that team and destroy their team leader's legs. The Sallanches - L'Alpe d'Huez is the eighth stage on July 13 which has 12 days of racing following it. Five of those stages are flat road stages which tire your legs more when you have to defend the lead on them.

In following the Tour over the last 35 years, I have noticed a trend in that, if the rider favored to win the Tour is French, the organizers tend to design that year's Tour to favor that rider. But, if that rider is not French, the organizers tend to design the Tour in a way that will most likely cause that rider to loose the Tour.

Remember a few years ago when I told you that Lance broke in a mountain stage, no one else noticed, and Lance admitted such after the Tour was over? That occurred in a Tour with a very similar format design to this one with fewer mountain stages and fewer days following the day he took the lead. Gee, what a coincidence. Then, remember last year when US Postal broke in the mountains TWICE and ONCE failed to take advantage of the opportunity? That occurred in a Tour with only six really long and hard mountain stages instead of this year's SEVEN long and hard mountain stages. Gee, what a coincidence.

So, what the Tour designers have done is combine the characteristics of the Tour that broke Lance's legs with the Tour that broke US Postal's legs and then made it tougher. Hmmm, could it be.....? You bet it is. This will be the toughest challenge Lance has ever faced. This challenge will not only be physically but also strategically and mentally extremely difficult.

In other words, the Tour organizers have designed this Tour so that, if Lance takes the lead on the most significant day in the mountains, he and his team will almost definitely break at least once in the last set of mountains. If this happens, the question will be "Will anyone realize and take advantage of the opportunity?" Remember that in the two Tours where Lance or his team broke, Lance won because his competition failed to realize the opportunity and capitalize on it. Will they be so stupid again? Possibly.

The other possibility is that Bruyneel will realize the threat and counter by forcing Lance to not take the lead until the first time trial four days later. Based on what I have seen of Bruyneel's strategies and tactics, I doubt it.

If you are familiar with Eddy Merckx's racing strategy, you will recognize the racing strategy used by Bruyneel, who is also Belgian. They both use the power racing strategy I warned you about in my site under strategy and tactics. I have never seen Bruyneel use any other strategy and it may be the only racing strategy he knows.

You will find this to be true even with most top coaches. They will learn one basic strategy or method of training and use that all the time never bothering to learn any other strategy. When a coach does this, he will always lose unless he has just the right rider with the right team in the right race. If any of those conditions change, he loses almost every time.

Bruyneel has strongly demonstrated this coaching trait. His strategy has failed twice in four Tours but, both times, his competition also failed to take advantage of his strategic mistake giving him the win. He has clearly shown that he cannot be strategically flexible. This is why it is important to learn a coach's basic methods and techniques so you can know their weaknesses and attack them. Fortunately for Lance, Bruyneel's competition has completely failed to attack his weaknesses and has persisted in attacking his strengths. That violates the most fundamental principle in Coaching 101. Go figure.

This Tour has clearly been designed to work against the power racing strategy of Bruyneel and be even less forgiving than either of the two other Tours in which his strategy failed. It is even more likely that Lance and his team will break in this Tour but, again, it becomes a question of "Will just one of the coaches for one of the stronger teams realize and take advantage of this failure or will they give Bruyneel the win again?"

Gee, I would love to coach against these guys. They really seem to hate winning and really want to give the win away. Anyone who wants to give me the win, I'll take it!!! :-) If I were their manager, I would be firing me a coach and looking for someone with some brains and balls. If my coach kept giving my wins away, I would give my coach away.

The Team Time Trial (Stage 4)

As you should have learned by now, the most significant aspect of the team time trial is that it eliminates GC hopefuls who don't have a strong time trialing team. If I were coaching a pro team preparing for the Tour and I had a rider who was even a modest hopeful for a top placing in GC, I would spend quite a bit of time working with my team on the fundamentals to improve their team time trialing ability. The 7-Eleven pro team did this for the entire year following their first Tour because they all lost so much time in the team time trial.

The Two Individual Time Trials (Stages 12 and 19)

The most significant aspect of the two individual time trials is that they eliminate the pure climbers from GC by causing them to lose so much time in the time trials that they couldn't hope to make up that time in the mountains against riders who can both climb and time trial. If you lose more than two minutes in these stages against a rider who can also climb, you are probably out of the race. If you lose five minutes or more, you are racing for a placing and not the win.

A very significant aspect about the first time trial this year is that it follows the first three days in the mountains, which include the most significant mountain stage and are followed by two flat road stages. This means that, if a rider takes the lead on the most significant mountain stage, he and his team will have had to fight for the lead for two days in the mountains and defend it for one day in the mountains and two days in the flats before riding the first time trial. This will this will take a little extra out of their legs making it possible for the other climbers to not lose as much time in the time trial. IF THE TEAMS FOR THE CLIMBERS WHO DON'T TIME TRIAL WELL PUT ENOUGH PRESSURE ON THAT TEAM!!! In other words, the team battle can change the effect the course has on the top teams. Don't forget that.

The same will apply to the last individual time trial only more so because it will be the next-to-last day following tens days of fighting for and defending the lead with four of those stages flat road stages. IF the teams ride this race right, they can also take some of the bite out of this stage. But so far, they have failed to impress me with such brilliance.

Lyon-Morzine Mountain Stage (Stage 7)

This is the first mountain stage of the Tour 2003 and is four stages earlier than the first mountain stage last year. It is the first of three mountain stages in the first set of mountain stages. I rate this as the sixth most significant mountain stage which is foreboding and shows how difficult this year's Tour will be when you realize that it is the longest mountain stage at 226.5 kilometers with five significant climbs of which one is the sixth longest climb at 14.8 km but only has a 5.5% grade and another climb is seventh longest with a 6.9% grade which is tied for 14th steepest. This stage also has a 7% grade that is only tied for 11th steepest but is only 6 km long. It also is the second longest stage in the Tour and follows the longest stage in the Tour which is 230 km long and is only the third stage after the team time trial. That increases the difficulty of this stage by tiring legs even more.

This stage is very long with a number of good climbs which will take strength out of legs for later climbing. One important aspect to this stage is that it precedes the most significant mountain stage with all the above difficulties. It is a perfect set up stage to help break legs on L'Alpe d'Huez.

And there are five mountain stages I consider more significant than this one. Did I say this will be a tough Tour?

Sallanches-L'Alpe d'Huez Mountain Stage (Stage 8)

I rate this stage as the most significant mountain stage in this year's Tour. It is the second longest mountain stage at 211 km with a mountain top finish on the most significant climb in the Tour following one of the better climbs in the Tour. This next to last climb is third longest in the Tour at 18.5 km with a grade of 6.7%. This is the third longest stage in the Tour, immediately follows the two longest stages, and is only the fourth stage following the team time trial. Legs are really going to break on this stage with 12 more days of racing left.

This is the most likely stage for the top GC riders to attempt taking the lead. If they do, it could be a trap set by the Tour organizers. You want to see who is wearing yellow at the top of L'Alpe d'Huez. He may not be wearing it in Paris. Did I say this is going to be a tough Tour?

Bourg d'Oisans - Gap Mountain Stage (Stage 9)

They will only be on stage 9 with 11 more stages to go and they will already be on the third mountain stage following the most significant mountain stage. Think about it, they will be less than half way through the Tour.

I rate this stage as the least or seventh most significant mountain stage. It is the second shortest mountain stage with only four significant climbs of which two are early in the stage and it does not have a mountain top finish. But this is not an easy stage. It has the two longest climbs in the Tour at 25.5 km and 19.4 km for the first and second climbs respectively and the next to last climb is tied as the seventh steepest climb at 7.4%. This stage will wear on already tiring legs.

It is interesting that the last climb is tied as 18th steepest at 6.7% and 20th in length at 3.9 km. There are a lot of hard climbs in this Tour.

This stage is followed by a day in the flats, a day of rest, a day in the flats, and the first individual time trial. They will need the day of rest but, as we have seen before, the rest day will not save tired legs from the miles to come. Remember that, when Lance broke in the mountains, there had also been a day of rest and two flat stages following the first set of mountains and that first set only had two mountain stages.

Toulouse (Cite de l'Espace) - Plateau de Bonascre Mountain Stage (Stage 13)

This stage will follow three mountain stages, a day in the flats, a day of rest, a day in the flats, and the first time trial. Even without all of this, I rate this as the second most significant mountain stage in this Tour. It is tied as the third longest mountain stage at 197.5 km and has a mountain top finish. It only has two significant climbs but they are both at the end of the stage with the first one being fifth in distance at 15.5 km and fifth in grade at 7.8%. The second of these climbs is 15th in distance at 9.1 km and 10th in grade at 7.2%. I consider these two climbs to be two of the most important climbs in the Tour and they are back-to-back at the end of the stage with the finish at the top of the second climb. This will be a very important stage, especially with very tired legs but it is followed by THREE more mountain stages and there will still be seven stages to ride after this stage. Did I tell you this is going to be a tough Tour? It keeps getting better because this stage precedes the third and fourth most significant mountain stages.

Saint-Girons - Loudenvielle Mountain Stage (Stage 14)

I rate this stage as the fourth most significant mountain stage. It is long at 191.5 km, has six significant climbs of which two are 13 kms or longer, one is the third steepest at 8.2% and another one is tied for seventh steepest at 7.4%, and ALL six climbs are between 6.6% and 8.2%. Ouch!!! This stage is interesting in that it does not have a mountain top finish but it does have an elevated finish meaning it is semi-mountain top.

With everything that has preceded this stage and it preceding the third most significant mountain stage, it makes this stage very important. You can see why I say that this Tour was designed to break legs and possibly break them twice. This has to be the toughest Tour in at least 30 years. You must ride this Tour right or you will lose it. I believe that this is the first stage to begin watching for the race leader to crack, especially if he took the lead at L'Alpe d'Huez. This Tour will be brutal and is perfect for the 100th Anniversary Tour. They will sweat blood in this Tour.

Bagneres-de-Bigorre - Luz Ardiden Mountain Stage (Stage 15)

They will be at the sixth mountain stage, it will be the third most significant mountain stage with a mountain top finish at the top of two of the most significant climbs in the Tour, and follows the second and fourth most significant mountain stages in the Tour. Fortunately, it is the shortest mountain stage at 159.5 km and only has two significant climbs. The next-to-last climb is 12th in length at 12.3 km and 21st in grade at 6.4% with the last climb being FOUTH in length at 17.1 km and tied for SEVENTH in grade at 7.4%. Watch for the Tour leader to break on these two climbs. It is very probable that he will, if he took the lead on L'Alpe d'Huez. The lead could easily change hands in this stage.

To add insult to injury, there is still one more brutal mountain stage left which can break legs and change the lead. I believe it was added and designed to do this. Fortunately, these last two mountain stages are separated by a day of rest which may or may not help. It is possible that the most significant day in this Tour may be a day of rest.

Pau - Bayonne Mountain Stage (Stage 16)

I rate this as the fifth most significant mountain stage. It is tied as the third longest mountain stage, has four significant climbs of which the last two climbs are the two steepest at 10.5% and 9.2%, the third climb is the sixth steepest at 7.5% and is tied as eighth longest at 14.1 km, and the last two climbs are piggy backed for a total of 11.2 kms of climbing with only a tiny break in the climbing. Fortunately, the stage does not have a mountain top finish and the significant climbs are in the middle of the stage. But, by this point, it may not matter much.

With all things considered, this stage will be brutal and the lead could change, if the right legs break. They should have signs on the roads for the last three mountain stages saying, "Watch For Breaking Legs!" But the hell may not be over yet.

Following this stage, will be two flat road stages, the last individual time trial, and the last flat stage finishing in Paris. It is very possible that all of this will cause legs to break in the last time trial as they almost did for Lance when his legs broke years ago. Remember how he didn't dominate that last time trial? He could lose time on this one.

Summary

This could be a pretty good Tour. :-) Possibly one of the best ever. Watch to see which teams lose time in the team time trail, who takes the lead on L'Alpe d'Huez, who does well in the first time trial, whose legs break in the following mountain stages, and who loses time in the last time trial.

The sub titles should also be more interesting this year and could have a more significant effect on who wins the Yellow Jersey. With only four flat stages before the first mountain stage and there being almost as many mountain stages as there are flat stages, the flat riders will have to ride the last five flat stages very aggressively to win the Points Title and the Points Title may be still won by a climber. With seven mountain stages and 27 significant climbs, the battle for KOM will be long and hard tiring legs even more in the mountains. Either of these two battles can seriously contribute to breaking the race leader's legs and causing him to lose the race.

It is possible that fewer riders will finish this Tour than any Tour in the last 50 years. This means that team attrition could be the most significant factor in this year's Tour. If enough team mates drop out of the race, the race leader simply wont be able to defend the jersey especially on flat ground. You are going to have to use everything I have taught you to very closely follow every aspect of the Tour this year. Predicting the top five will be more difficult than any year before and it is possible that the last rider standing will be the winner. We could end up with some completely unexpected, new face standing on top of the podium in Paris. Don't take it for granted that Lance will win his fifth Tour this year. This could be the year of surprises.

You don't want to miss this Tour!

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