Projections

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Projections

I expect the Tour to develop in this manner for 2003. The teams will begin battling over the Points and Combativity titles until the team time trial. After the dust has settled from the team time trial and we see who has lost time and who has not, then the big teams contending the Yellow Jersey in Paris, will settle to wait for the mountains. In the mountains, the battle will begin as the climbers hash things out. Then in the first individual time trial, the GC riders will sort things out. It is possible that the winner wont wear Yellow until after the first individual time trial because of the time the pure climbers will lose.

Again, I encourage you to try to pick the first five finishers as a good learning tool and to make it more challenging and fun. This year, I heard about the Bicycling Magazine million dollar contest to name the top ten to finish the Tour but I didn't get the information I needed to do the analysis in time for their deadline but figured it would be more fun and challenging, because of the increased number of variables, to try to name the top ten anyway. So we will see how close I can come to the top ten. I figure that, if I can just get 50%, that will be pretty good for some old guy sitting thousands of miles away from the race and circuit. But what the heck, after naming 80% of the top five in order last year, I figured I needed a better challenge. :-)

Therefore, I want to do an individual rider analysis for the riders I consider to be the main contenders for a top ten placing. My top guesses as the race favorites for this year are Lance, Belokie, Mayo, and Simoni to win. In hot pursuit will be Botero and Ullrich with Heras, Azevedo, Mancebo, Moreau, Miller, Leipheimer, and Beltran competing for a top five to ten position.

Lance Armstrong

Lance still has to be the race favorite but there are some things to watch for. First, is he really on form losing 10 seconds to Mayo in the mountains in the Dauphine and only beating Mayo by 1.26 in the time trial? Second, will his team still be able to hold off the improved teams in this year's Tour? Third, will Bruyneel adjust his team strategy for the new race format or cause his team to break in the second set of mountain stages and exposing Lance to an assault by improved climbing teams? If the answer is no to any of these questions, Lance could easily lose the Tour.

Remember that every five time Tour winner to date has lost at least one Tour in their pursuit of Tour fame with Indurain losing his sixth Tour very badly. No one is invincible.

If Lance and his team crack early enough on Luz Ardiden, he could finish as low as fourth. The competition is that good this year.

Jose Beloki

Beloki still has to be considered the top rider to compete against Lance but he has to keep one eye over his shoulder for Mayo, Simoni, Botero, and Ullrich. His team is still strong and I must assume that he is still just as strong in spite of the fact that he wasn't in any of the recent races I checked making it difficult to get an idea of how strong he is riding this year. His biggest loss this year is his team mate, Galdeano who finished top five last year and provided him with considerable team support and leverage.

His performance in last year's Tour is very close to Mayo's performance in the Dauphine this year with the possibility that Mayo may be even better at climbing. But I expect ONCE to put at least a few minutes into Euskaltel in the team time trial giving Beloki the advantage. If Euskaltel can keep Mayo close enough to Beloki in the team time trial, Beloki could find himself racing for second place which could distract him from attacking Lance. This could be interesting.

Iban Mayo Diez

This is a new, young rider who is very promising for this year's Tour. His time trailing and climbing have improved making him one of the top GC riders in the world and a favorite for the Yellow Jersey. I believe the biggest question for this rider will be the performance of his team in the team time trial. Can they keep him in the battle or will he find himself doing what Botero did last year, riding for a top five placing, stage wins, and the KOM? Remember, this is a team sport.

This racer definitely has the potential to make the racing much more interesting this year. He beat Lance in the mountains by 10 seconds at the Dauphine and only lost 1.26 in the time trial. That makes him a serious threat to Lance and Beloki. This could be fun.

Gelberto Simoni

Simoni is coming from a Giro win with a strong team that should keep him in contention for the Yellow Jersey. But I saw that his time trialing is just a little off and he will probably lose more time in the individual time trials than he can make up in the mountains. I expect him to lose at least five minutes in the two time trails forcing him to race for second with Beloki and Mayo.

The battle between these three riders could be so close that they will make it even easier for Lance to win the race. Or they could all attack Lance so aggressively that they break him and his team in the mountains. Four riders this close on four different teams could make this the most competitive Tour since the mid 1980's.

Santiago Botero Echeverry

With Botero's determination and riding for a stronger time trial team, I must consider him to be at least a long shot for the Yellow Jersey even though his climbing performance was very bad in the Dauphine. The only reason I am even considering him is because his time trialing was still top notch telling me he could still be in top form and was just hammering his legs in climbing shape. We must still watch this man especially since he is now riding for a much stronger team.

Even as a coach, there are some things you cannot tell about riders unless you are there working the race. Even then, a smart rider can still fool you every once in a while. It is always safest to assume your competition is at their best so you don't get any bad surprises. I hate bad surprises and prefer to get only good surprises. Therefore, I prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Jan Ullrich

This is another case of keeping a top rider in mind. But there are several big questions for me with Ullrich. First, his form was questionable but he showed considerable improvement in the later stages of the Tour de Suisse telling me his was training and is still in great form. Second, I don't know that much about the strength of the Bianchi Team. Will they be able to keep him within two minutes of Lance and the others? Therefore, I am considering him a close long shot at winning the race.

It should be pointed out that, with Ullrich, I have already listed six very powerful climbers who are close enough in time trialing that, if their teams keep them in the action in the team time trial, there could result a battle in the mountains of T3 fierceness. This battle could be so fierce with seven days in the mountains that it could break USP and Lance opening the flood gates for a five rider free for all that could be amazing. This could be one of the greatest Tours ever.

Roberto Heras Hernandez

Heras could be the salvation of Lance Armstrong this year. He is still climbing very well and has shown significant signs of improvement in time trialing. This will make him more of a threat to the top five contenders and could serve as a distraction or support for Lance. Heras should be able to improve on GC over last year and provide Lance with the team leverage he may need to win his fifth Tour. Keep an eye on this man.

Jose Azevedo

Azevedo was to Beloki last year what Heras should be to Lance this year and he should provide the same team leverage this year that he provided Beloki last year but he should still finish top ten on GC. Without Galdeano in the pack this year, Azevedo will have to do more work and could slip a little on GC. He should also drop a little because of the increased competition at the top. He will have to work harder to support Beloki.

Francisco Mancebo Perez

I expect Mancebo to ride just about as strong as he did last year with some improvement. Even with the increased competition at the top, his improvement should be enough to keep him in the top ten for this year. He may even be able to break into the top five but I don't think so unless Botero and Ullrich are in worse shape than I think they are and Azevedo and Heras have to work too hard for their leaders. He has too many good riders ahead of him.

Christophe Moreau

I am expecting the same from Moreau that I am from Mancebo. He should be able to keep a spot in the top ten or very close. His primary competition will be Mancebo, Millar, Leipheimer, and Beltan for a top ten spot. I think his team is just a little too weak and he loses too much time in the time trials to be a top five contender unless Botero, Ullrich, Heras, and Azevedo have a bad Tour. I see iBanesto.com, Credit Agricole, Cofidis, and Rabobank being very close to each other in team strength with their top riders also being very close to each other presenting a potentially interesting race for the top ten spots on GC.

David Miller

Miller is another one of those young riders who has improved a lot but is still losing too much time in the hills. His time trialing is superb and his team should not lose him too much time in the team time trail but I expect him to lose too much time in the mountians to be a top five contender. He will help make the race for the top ten. If he keeps improving the way he has since last year, he could be a top five contender next year. Keep an eye on him.

Levi Leipheimer

Leipheimer is not showing much improvement over last year and has remained consistent in performance. Unfortunately for him, there are more top riders in the race this year and riders who have improved. I believe this will push him into a battle just to finish in the top ten again and probably just out of it. It will be close.

Manuel Beltran Martinez

Beltran is a strong climber and reasonable time trialist but I feel he will lose just too much time to make the top ten. He should finish just short of it as he seems to manage in most stage races. He is a good domestique and should give a good battle for top ten but will be riding primarily for Lance and USP.

My Guess

Well, here goes my first ever guess for the top ten. This will be fun and we will see how many factors will blow this guess all to pieces. :-)

2003 Tour Top Ten

Lance Armstrong
Jose Beloki
Iban Mayo
Gilberto Simoni
Santiago Botero
Jan Ullrich
Roberto Heras
Jose Azevedo
Francisco Mancebo
Christophe Moreau
David Miller
Levi Leipheimer
Manuel Beltran

So, I fudged a little and named 13. :-) What is your best guess for the top ten?

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