Stage 10
Key Stage
July 14 Bourg d'Oisans - Gap 184.5 km
I want to start by saying that, as an American, I would like to see
Lance win this year's Tour but, as a coach, I have to recognize and
deal with the truth as I see it. I cannot afford to permit my
desires to taint my information and the analysis of that
information. To permit such would make me ineffective as a coach.
What I tell you on this site is the way I objectively read things as
a professional coach. If I am going to teach you bike racing right,
I can't lie to you or tell you want you want to hear. I must call it
as I see it.
As a learning rider, you should be glad about that because, if I
didn't teach you based on truth and only taught you based on my
bias, how could I teach you to read races right? The truth is not
always what we want it to be and can be ugly at times. Deal with it.
Second, I hate to see any athlete get hurt and definitely hate to
see any racer lose a race by crashing out. I feel that Beloki
crashing out of today's stage will probably be the most significant
event of this Tour because he was definitely Lance's strongest and
smartest competitor. I will explain more on this later.
Today's stage started out exactly as I expected with a lot of hard
attacking and racing for the KOM points. Virenque tried to go on
attack on the first climb but his legs have not recovered so he was
forced to sit in the pack and get leftovers when they were
available. He will rest for the next four days and resume his battle
for KOM.
Several times, a large number of riders got off and even looked like
they might stay. There was a lot of attacking for the KOM points
even within these breaks telling you that the breaks were primarily
for the KOM points and not the stage win though that was in the back
of their minds.
USP went to the front on the first climb with minimal assistance
from QSD and forced the pace for the entire stage. Did you notice
USP sending four riders out the back to rest today while four forced
pace? Bruyneel is using a four rider squad system where he works
four riders one day while the other four rest out the back and then
swaps squads the next day. This system is designed to keep his
domestiques fresher on each day extending the number of days they
can defend the lead.
The weakness to this system is that the four riders working on any
day will tire out twice as fast and are twice as easy to break so
you can get at the legs of the team leader. If you do manage to
break the legs of the squad in the peloton, the other riders are so
far back they can't help and your team leader is completely at the
mercy of his competitors. ONCE knew this and used it today, very
effectively.
ONCE finally did what I have been saying they should do for years
and it was working incredibly well until Beloki crashed out of the
race. They used the team leverage I have been teaching you to use.
They had Jaksche only 3'19" down on Lance and sent him up the road
on the break taking the virtual lead. This forced USP to chase hard
for the entire stage while Beloki rested on their wheel. Beloki sat
on their wheel watching them tire over the cat one climb, the HC
climb, and, when he saw they were tired, Beloki attacked at the top
of the cat 2 climb breaking the USP team and forcing Lance to chase.
GEE, WHERE HAVE WE HEARD THAT IDEA BEFORE?
Beloki shattered a tired USP team getting at Lance's legs and
Vinokourov, realizing the opportunity (smelling the blood), attacked
to never be seen again with only about 20 km to go forcing Lance to
continue his chase without his team support. GEE, WHERE HAVE WE
HEARD ABOUT THIS RELAY ATTACKING? Beloki dropped back on Lance's
wheel to rest while Lance chased Vinokourov who started the stage
only 1'17" down and then Beloki attacked Lance's tired legs again on
the last climb forcing him to chase harder with Hamilton, Mayo, and
Ullrich resting on his wheel. Vinokourov finished far enough ahead
so that he is now only 21" behind Lance.
Like I told you yesterday, the top GC riders have clearly gained
confidence from the beating Lance took yesterday and have gone into
a feeding frenzy. They know they can beat Lance and are working very
well and very hard to do it. Expect to see more of this in the
future. Beloki crashing may have saved Lance's bacon.....this year.
I will discuss next year later.
The USP team broke and forced Lance to start chasing FIVE days
earlier than I had told you they would because Bruyneel put them on
the front of the peloton two days sooner. People, it should be
common sense that you cannot tow your competition forever and expect
to beat them. Duh, hello!!! If your competition is sitting on your
wheel doing 40% less work than you are, you will tire out 40% faster
than they will and you MUST be at least 41% stronger than they are
to beat them!!! That is basic bike racing 101. Get a clue.
Lance had to chase hard for about 20 kilometers today on a flatter
mountain stage in which he should have rested. That is 20 kilometers
of hard work Lance won't get back before the end of the Tour making
it easier and, potentially, sooner that they will break his legs in
the next set of mountains. He is in even worse trouble than I had
expected because USP decided to defend the lead from the team time
trail and forced the pace two stages sooner in the mountains. USP
has taken the sucker punch the Tour organizers designed into this
Tour. Will they survive it? I warned you about this.
The big question at this point is whether the remaining top GC
riders, Vinokourov, Mayo, Mancebo, Hamilton, and Ullrich will be
able to keep enough pressure on Lance to keep doing the damage? Will
they attack him as aggressively or did Lance get handed the Tour by
a crash?
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage is the first of two flat stages before the first
time trial and the next set of mountain stages. It will be a long
219.5 kms which could easily end in a pack sprint. Expect some hard
racing for the first road prime which is only about 10.5 kms into
the stage. Also expect to see a long break of riders who are very
far down on GC go up the road right after the first road prime.
There is a fair chance that this break may succeed.
The big thing to watch tomorrow is how much time will USP spend on
the front of the peloton?
I am already working on what should be a very interesting coaching
analysis for the first rest day. You don't want to miss this one.
