Stage 12
July 17 Narbonne - Toulouse 160 km
The racing for the stage started fast because of the Points Title,
for the stage win, and because of the Centenaire Title. It looks
like the teams are finally getting interested in that 100,000 Euro's
up for grabs with the title. The attacking was hard and consistent
forcing the pace into a headwind.
The USP coaching staff completely blew me away today. I had expected
them to control the pace until the chasing teams took control but
they did much worse than that and left me questioning their sanity.
The coaching staff started out by having USP force the pace into a
headwind on a flat stage which was really bad to start with. But,
for reasons known only to them and God, they had USP chase down
every attack that went up the road until the first road prime. Why,
I ask!!! USP isn't defending the Points Title!
This strategy forced USP to race hard, into a headwind, towing the
entire peloton for a first hour average speed (remember into the
headwind) of over 27 mph. For what???
After that, USP stayed on the front of the peloton forcing the pace
hard enough so that the break gained relatively little ground in the
next hour. At least twice during this time, other teams went to the
front to chase, were bringing in the break, and the USP coaching
staff sent the USP team AROUND the other chasing teams to force the
pace on flat ground into the headwind?!? Duh, hello! If other teams
want to do your work for you, LET THEM!!!
Are Bruyneel and Carmichael trying to destroy USP??? Are they trying
to cause Lance to lose??? Is there any common sense left on the USP
team???
A really good break of eight riders got up the road and managed to
stay for the win with a pretty much shared emphasis on the Points
Title, the Centenaire Title, and the stage win. Towards the end of
the stage, a number of sprinter teams forced their way past Postal
(finally) and tried to bring the break back in but barely failed.
This hard racing was pretty much as I had predicted before the Tour
started.
Let's recap the race to this point. USP started towing the peloton
in the first mountain stage and has towed them for every road stage
since, even on flat ground, into a headwind, THE DAY BEFORE THE
FIRST TIME TRIAL. Gee, let's see if I can guess what are the
possibilities for tomorrow. The Posties will be going into the time
trial with tired legs from towing the entire peloton for the last
five road stages and must ride at least hard enough to make cutoff
or they will be out of the race.
With those tired legs, they are going to have to ride their butts
off to make cutoff. If there is a headwind or side wind, legs will
break like falling timbers and you will hear the sound around the
world as one or more riders fail to make cutoff.
Just in case you have not figured out yet, the expected strategy by
the USP coaching staff will be to have this quickly tiring team
force the pace in the next four mountain stages. What, do these
coaches think USP can tow the entire peloton for the last 13 road
stages in the Tour and have anything but stubs left for legs???
Just for fun, let's see if we can guess what will probably happen
here. If all of the USP riders survive the time trial, they will be
made to force the pace from the start in the second most significant
mountain stage of the Tour on the next day. Their tired legs will
blow apart at least by the bottom of the last of the two cat one
climbs with a hill top finish on top of the second climb. Lance will
be left at the mercy of about eight or more riders of which at least
three will begin relay attacking him. If Lance survives this with
legs that are even more tired, the next day you can bet the USP
coaching staff will have the team force the pace in the fourth most
significant mountain stage from the start with legs that are dead
meat. I don't think they will survive the entire stage before
blowing up like they did the last day in the Alpes. This will,
again, leave Lance to defend against attacks in a stage in which he
should rest as much as possible with the third most significant
mountain stage being the next day. By now, Lance's legs wont be much
better off than his team mate's legs. The next day, in the third
most significant mountain stage, USP will cease to be a factor in
the Tour when they totally self destruct on the last climbs.
Remember that, with what is happening, this is the best scenario I
can think of. The worst scenario has Lance losing the race in the
Toulouse (Cite de l'Espace) - Plateau de Bonascre stage. I believe
that it is probably already too late for USP to save the race by
changing strategy. If there is any hope, it will be that the USP
coaching staff will alter their team strategy in the Toulouse (Cite
de l'Espace) - Plateau de Bonascre stage but that is very unlikely.
Therefore, I think it will take a miracle from God for Lance to win
this Tour. I believe the coaches have already lost it for him.
There are several lessons I want to share here. The first is that
this fiasco seems to be one of over confidence and arrogance on the
part of the coaching staff. The worst thing any athlete or coach can
do is to begin to believe they can't be beat. If you believe you can
be beat, you will think through all the different possibilities for
losing the race and be prepared for anything you competition will
throw at you.
But, it is only human that, if you believe you can't be beat, to not
consider ways that you could be beat and you wont be ready when your
competition throws their best at you. Thinking you cannot not be
beat opens the door for your competition to beat you. God has taught
me that, if you want to get beat, just start believing you can't be
beat and you will get beat. I believe this may be what has happened
to the USP coaching staff.
The way I always taught my riders to think was that anyone who is
still with you can beat you. Everyone who is with you at the
starting line, can beat you. Everyone who is with you half way
through the race, can beat you. Everyone who is with you at the
finish line, can beat you. The only people who might not be able to
beat you in a race are those who are so far behind you that they are
out of the race BUT always be careful because they could recover,
catch you, and beat you.
I had them think that everyone who was with them was Eddy Merckx and
that they would have to ride their butts off to win. That way, you
only get good surprises and no bad surprises. I HATE bad surprises.
Second, you did it again. I put something wrong in this write up,
AGAIN :-), and you missed it. Don't you guys and gals know you have
to watch me better than that? I have been telling you that Lance
would probably lose this race, why, and how since before I made my
top ten guess. BUUUUT, I put Lance as my favorite to win it. Hold
it, coach!!! Isn't that a contradiction??? Yes, but why did it
happen?
The predictions are based on information, logic, and analysis. The
placing of Lance for my favorite to win was based on emotions. You
see, I had figured out that, unless Bruyneel, a human and creature
of habit, changed his ways (very unlikely), Lance would probably not
win. Buuut being an American and human, I permitted my emotions for
wanting Lance to win and me hoping that the USP coaching staff would
not make the mistakes my logic told me they would influence my
decision for my top ten guess, in spite of the fact that I knew the
coaching staff would make those mistakes. (I had not idea they would
make even worse mistakes.)
My logic or gut told me that Lance would lose this race because of
USP coaching strategies in relation to this year's race format but
my American heart refused to believe it AND I knew what was
happening but permitted it to happen anyway. This is what happens
when you permit your heart and emotions to make your strategic
decisions instead of going with the gut. If you have the knowledge
and experience, your gut will be right most of the time and your
emotions will be wrong most of the time unless they coincide.
Knowing this would happen, I still permitted it to happen because I
am not coaching a team in the race and wanted to cheer for Lance
hoping for the best. If I were coaching a team in the Tour, I would
have never let this happen and would have gone with gut.
I have been waiting for the entire Tour for some one to point out
this contradiction but not one person did. Gottcha again, didn't I.
:-) Keep it fun.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow will be the third significant sorting in the Tour. The sort
will cause the climbers who can't time trial well to drop in GC
while the GC riders will begin to congregate at the top of the GC
standings. We will find out tomorrow who will and who will not have
any chance to win this Tour. It will be one of the most significant
stages in the Tour.
Tomorrow, the cream will rise to the top. Don't miss it.
