Stage 13
Key Stage
July 18 Gaillac - Cap' Decouverte Time Trial 48.5 km
Some people have been emailing me asking questions and offering
ideas. Some of these include that Lance may have only been faking it
on L'Alpe d'Huez. If that is the case, he is doing an excellent job
of faking it because his performance also appeared down in the
Dauphine. After Mayo's performance of losing over 5 minutes in
today's time trail when he lost less than l.5 minutes in the
Dauphine time trial, that could be a possibility. Faking it is a
common strategy, especially when a rider is not riding as strong as
they would like. They are trying to save themselves and obtain the
element of surprise. You do have to watch out for this but I think
that probably is not the case though we do need to keep such things
in mind.
There is the possibility that Lance is off form as he appears to be
and that he has been riding defensively to save as much as he can
for the more significant mountain stages later in the race. It is
like he has been riding damage control. For example, the only riders
he let go on L'Alpe d'Huez were Mayo, whom Lance knew he would put
time into in the time trails, and Vinokourov, who was down
considerably at the time he got off on break. At the same time,
Lance kept both Beloki's and Hamilton's attacks in check.
That is one way you can conserve energy in a stage race. You don't
chase riders who are not a serious immediate threat to you
permitting them to close ground on you knowing you have some buffer
padded in to their time because they are either down on time now or
will lose time later.
After today's time trial, it is obvious that Lance is off form at
least a little. This has to be the worst he has been beaten in a
Tour TT and he did not gain that much on three of his top
competitors. He only gained 30" on Vinokourov, 34" on Zubeldia, and
37" on Hamilton.
I would say that, if anyone were faking it, it had to be Ullrich,
though he is claiming he had a fever. He got dropped on L'Alpe
d'Huez by Baltran and then gained time on Lance while Lance was
dancing with Beloki and Hamilton to diminish his losses. He then sat
quietly for the next three stages and hammered everyone today,
including Lance. It was awesome. I think he just got everybody's
attention.
Looking at the GC standings, there are a number of things. First,
the field has been thinned considerably with there still being two
riders within one minute of Lance. Tyler is 2'59" down and most of
that was lost in the team time trial. He has only lost the 37" he
lost to Lance in today's time trial since the team time trial. It is
also interesting that the two Euskaltel riders, Zubeldia and Mayo,
who are tied for fourth place at 4'29", each lost over 3.5 minutes
in the team time trail. If they had not lost that time in the team
time trial, they would both be within one minute of Lance and pose a
serious threat. You should be getting the significance of the team
time trial by now. If it were not for the team time trial, there
would be five riders within one minute of Lance and at least one
would be ahead of him or tied. It is possible, that with Lance off
form and playing defense, that he may win this Tour because his team
won the team time trial.
At this time, Ullrich and Vinokourov are the big threats to Lance
with Tyler being marginal. The rest are pretty much out of the race.
Zubeldia and Mayo will be racing for a top three to five placing and
the rest of the riders in the top 12 places will be riding for a top
five to ten spot. Lance can let Tyler gain 2.5 minutes before Lance
has to start expending energy to race against Tyler. He can permit
Zubeldia and Mayo to gain four minutes each and the rest can gain at
least 4.5 minutes before Lance has to start racing against them. You
can expect to see Lance let those riders go that far up the road
before he becomes concerned plus he knows that the other riders
under him can't let them go that far up the road without losing
their spot. These things will work for Lance.
The trick here is that you must be willing to risk losing your
position in order to force Lance to chase someone else so you can
attack Lance's tired legs. Most riders can't do this and pay the
price. You see, if you are riding in second place and ride to
protect second from a lower placed rider, you are not only
protecting your placing from the lower rider, but you are also
protecting first place from that rider and yourself. Sometimes, you
have to be willing to risk losing a place to move up on GC. It takes
guts and mental discipline.
I hope that you noticed that all of the other USP riders finished
over six minutes down in the time trial to save their legs for the
next four days. They will need it.
I am not doing too bad on my top ten picks. In spite of two of my
riders crashing out of the race, I still have six of my top ten
picks in the top eleven spots with two of them expected to move up
in the next four days. Without the two crashes, I would be running
very close to 70% to 80% right now. That is pretty good.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's Toulouse - Ax 3 Domaines is 197.5 km with two cat 1
climbs at the end of the stage with the stage finishing on top of
the second climb. It is the second most significant mountain stage
in the race and the most significant mountain stage left. There are
two road primes before the first cat one climb.
I expect an early break for the stage win, KOM, and Points. Look for
a rested Virenque to be in this break. You might also see McGee make
the break for the two primes and get dropped in the climbs. I also
expect USP to tow the peloton for most of the stage, hammering over
the first climb and part way up the second climb to eliminate most
of the riders from the coming battle.
Tomorrow, a number of questions will be answered. First, now that
Beloki is gone, will the other teams press Lance the way ONCE was? I
think that at least Telekom and Bianchi will with probably also CSC.
Don't be surprised if Zubeldia, Mayo, or Hamilton win tomorrow's
stage with a good lead while Lance is dancing with Ullrich and
Vinokourov. Will USP break tomorrow, again? Is Lance off form or
trying to win an Oscar from Hollywood for best actor in a leading
roll?
The race is very close and could be won by less than one minute. It
is an excellent race with a number of surprises but I told you this
one would have some surprises and be hard to predict. That is why I
am very happy with my top ten guess. The race is still fun. I had
trouble sleeping last night and will probably get even less sleep
tonight. Don't you just love bike chess? :-)
BIKE CHESS RULES!!!
