Stage 14
Key Stage
July 19 Toulouse (Cite de l'Espace) - Plateau de Bonascre 197.5
km
Wow, what a race. First, there is a coach's analysis which I forgot
to tell you about yesterday. You have to remember my rule that you
don't want to lose more than one minute in a time trial and Lance
broke that rule yesterday losing over 1.5 minutes to Ullrich.
Second, you have to assume that you will lose the same time in the
second time trial as you did in the first and possibly even more
time. This means that Lance had to go into today's race with the
understanding that he couldn't lose any time to Ullrich and actually
had to put at least 1.5 minutes into him in the mountains to have a
chance at winning the Tour.
Beginning today, Lance could not continue to play defense and damage
control. He had to go on the offensive. If he failed, he will lose
the Tour.
In understanding that Lance is really off form, you should have been
paying attention to the little news items on the Tour site when they
mention seemingly unimportant things like Lance has only won one or
two time trials in the Tour by more than one minute. He is not a
dominant time trialist like Hinault and LeMond. Lance's dominance
has always come in the mountains. For example, on the Tour site,
they stated today that, in the four Tours Lance has won, he entered
the second set of mountains at least 4 minutes ahead of his nearest
GC competitor. He gained almost all of that in the mountains. This
year, Lance started the second set of mountains only 34" ahead of
Ullrich who had just beat him in the time trial by over 1.5 minutes.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Lance was
in trouble at the start of today's stage.
The stage started fast and hard the way I expected. I expected at
least one rider in the top five or near on the Points Title to go up
the road for the points in the two road primes. Hushovd was the one
winning both primes gaining 12 seconds before getting shelled in the
mountains.
Most of the riders who did the attacking were great climbers looking
for KOM points and a stage win. It really looked like the USP
coaching staff finally quit using their butts for helmets and were
using some decent tactics to save team legs. The trouble is that is
was too late, just as I had figured.
USP sent Rubiera up the road in the break as a control. With him in
the break "for a stage win", USP did not have to chase. They started
out at the front with a really easy pace which forced others to
chase. About time they finally learned how to use team leverage for
peloton control. BLB started the chase and I couldn't figure out
why. I think they couldn't either because the coach called them off
putting USP back on the front.
The Saeco started the chase to get the break back in so Simoni could
go for a stage win. They did a lot of damage to the break lead and
dropped quite a few riders from the peloton. When the peloton hit
the first climb, Euskaltel took over the chase destroying the
peloton. If these guys get good at the team time trial, they will be
a force to deal with. All but a few of the USP riders were dropped
on this climb showing that USP was all but finished. As I feared,
the damage has been done.
At first, all the USP riders were dropped but Beltran and Heras
fought back to help Lance. Beltran finally took the lead and
hammered the first climb dropping all but about a dozen of the top
riders. At this time, Euskaltel probably had the best team advantage
in the break with both Mayo and Zubeldia. In a great team move,
Euskaltel had Mayo attack Beltran towards the top of the climb
dropping him and forcing Lance to chase but Beltran, the best
domestique in this year's Tour, fought back and helped Lance chase
down Mayo.
At the bottom of the climb, Beltran dropped and Heras assumed the
task of forcing the pace. Shortly after Heras caught his team mate,
Rubiera, he blew (someone told me he cramped up) forcing a tired
Rubiera to take over. This was a clear sign that USP is fried and
the last of the team broke where I said they would break EVEN AFTER
MANAGING TO TAKE IT EASY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE STAGE.
At this point, Zubeldia smelled the blood and launched an attack
that finished Rubiera and Lance. Vinokourov saw Lance fold and
attacked quickly followed by Ullrich. Lance had broken as I
expected. But Lance managed to fight back just enough to keep the
lead going into tomorrow's stage losing only 19" to Ullrich.
This is really bad. If Heras did cramp, there is a good possibility
that he will not be able to finish tomorrow's stage. The USP team is
dead in the water and I expect to see them fold even more tomorrow
with a strong possibility that some will drop out of the race.
Not only did Lance not gain the needed time on Ullrich but he lost
precious time. Now he must (1) not lose any more time to Ullrich in
the mountains and (2) must gain at least 2 minutes on Ullrich or he
will probably lose the Tour in the time trial. Not only do I believe
that Lance can't gain any time on Ullrich in the remaining
Mountains, but he will lose more time and the Tour. After today, I
believe the final battle will be between Ullrich and Vinokourov with
Zubeldia trying to add insult to injury by moving ahead of Lance to
get a podium spot. If Lance breaks bad enough in one of the
remaining mountain stages, he could do it.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's 191.5 km Saint-Firons to Loudevielle Le Louron stage has
the potential of becoming a horrible nightmare for USP and Lance.
There are three cat one climbs and two cat two climbs spread
throughout this stage. This means there will be a lot of long, hard
climbing for USP and their tired legs. I expect the stage to start
hard and fast with KOM and prime hunters along with riders looking
for a stage win heading up the road early.
It looks like USP is so dead that, regardless of the tactics they
use tomorrow, all that climbing will kill most of the team and could
leave Lance alone to be relay attacked again causing him to break
again and lose the lead. Don't be surprised to see USP riders quit
the stage. Heras may not even start it. Tomorrow is going to be a
death march for USP. I cannot believe the team can survive that much
climbing with dead legs.
I expect to see Ullrich take the lead tomorrow or on Luz Ardiden. I
think the USP coaching staff owe Lance and the USP team an apology.
The riders did the best they could but got bad team tactics because
the strongest team in the Tour got beat.
This is one of those times when you hate to say I told you so. But I
told you that, since USP started forcing the pace two stages earlier
than I had expected, they would break two stages earlier than I had
expected. I had expected the coaching staff to blow the race on Luz
Ardiden. But this race is almost over. It is only because of the
heroic efforts of the riders that Lance still has the lead. Heroism
can't hold out forever against an overwhelming force like Ullrich.
Will Lance be able to come back next year for his fifth Tour win?
Will he make the changes required to win the Tour again?
Is there a medical problem causing Lance to overtrain?
