Stage 15
Key Stage
July 20 Saint-Girons - Loudenvielle 191.5 km
The racing started fast and hard with a lot of attacking, especially
by climbers who wanted to go for the KOM Title and the stage win. It
was a perfect KOM stage but turned into a GC stage also.
USP is finally (probably in desperation) starting to use some
intelligent tactics for this race in relation to Lance's fitness
level. The question here is, "Is it too late?" They took control of
the peloton and let a break go up the road with Beltran in it with
Beltran being the best placed rider in the break on GC. Then they
rode slow to encourage other teams to take over the chasing but the
other teams let them tow the peloton for quite a while before doing
something about the situation.
It wasn't until Beltran became the virtual leader that Euskaltel and
Bianchi sent riders forward to work on bringing the break back in.
Later Telekom would also send riders forward. It looks like Bruyneel
has finally learned to use team leverage to force the other teams to
do most of the chasing.
As expected Virenque got into the break and started sprinting for
the KOM points at the tops of the climbs. He decided to eliminate
some of the other climbers from the sprints and broke away with two
other riders. They stayed off until the finish with some of the
other break riders also staying away until the finish. Virneque
greatly increased his lead for the KOM Title. Did you notice that
his team got two riders in the break to work for Virenque so he
didn't have to help with the pace setting and could save his legs
for the KOM primes? It was good team work.
USP's move of putting Beltran into the break worked very well
forcing Euskaltel and Bianchi to do most of the chasing for the day.
But the USP team still broke really bad because they are already too
tired. Now you have to realize that the first group of four USP
riders heading out the back of the peloton could have been USP
saving those riders for tomorrow's stage which is the third most
significant mountain stage in the Tour. But other USP riders
dropping early definitely was not them saving their legs for
tomorrow especially when it left Lance with just one team mate too
early in the race and several fought back on during the descents. It
is also important to note that, when the USP team reached this
point, the coaching staff pulled Beltran out of the break and back
to the peloton but Beltran was too tired to stay with the lead pack
when the attacking started.
As I expected, by the next to last climb, Lance was almost alone and
the other top riders began attacking him. He showed us that his
strategy is still defense and damage control. He decreased the
beating he took by letting riders go up the road who he had more
time on him and used their time deficits as a work buffer. Today, he
marked Ullrich and let other riders go up the road. He was hoping
that, if those other riders, especially Vinokourov, got far enough
up to threaten Ullrich, Ullrich would help chase. It worked and may
be what save Lance today.
It is at this point that you must understand something about
tactical psychology. When Ullrich put over 1.5 minutes into Lance
and everyone else, they suddenly had to set their thinking strategy
to include the idea that Ullrich would probably put that much time
into them in the next time trial. This means that all those riders
must race in the mountains to gain enough time on Ullrich so that,
if he does put that much time into them in the next time trial, they
will be far enough ahead so they will still win.
This means that Vinorkourov has to try to have at least 2.5 minutes
on Ullrich by the next time trial and Lance must have at least 2
minutes on Ullrich. It also means that Vinorkourov must have at
least one minute on Lance.
This gave Ullrich the tactical advantage over Lance in that he could
permit Vinokourov to gain enough time to lead Ullrich by 1.5 minutes
and Ullrich will probably still put enough time into Vinokourov in
the time trial to move back ahead of Vinokourov. But Lance can only
permit Vinokourov to gain enough time to be 20 seconds ahead of
Lance on GC for Lance to be expected to put enough time on
Vinokourov to retake the lead. Since Lance was only 1'01" ahead of
Vinokourov, he could only permit Vinokourov to gain 1'21" in the
break before he had to start taking back time. But, since Ullrich
was 46" ahead of Vinokourov, he could permit Vinokourov to gain up
to 2 minutes before Ullrich would have to work to bring him back in.
This gave Ullrich the tactical advantage of about 39" over Lance and
he should have used this advantage to force Lance to do most of the
chasing. But Ullrich failed to take advantage of this situation and
did much of the chasing.
This also means that Lance must quit racing defensively and go on
the offensive in the last two mountain stages to gain 2 minutes on
Ullrich or Ullrich will probably take the lead in the next time
trial. I don't believe Lance has the strength left to do this.
It is very important that Lance did do a lot of the chasing the day
after his legs broke in the mountains causing him to lose time and
almost lose the lead and the day before the third most significant
mountain stage with a mountain top finish. This means that Lance's
legs are more likely to break again on the climb to Luz Ardiden.
This time, he will probably lose the lead.
Lance is in serious trouble with two days left in the mountains and
the time trial coming up. Strategically, he must put at least two
minutes into Ullrich in the next two days in the mountains just in
case Ullrich puts another 1'36" into Lance in the next time trial.
If he does not do this, he has to hold the lead and do much better
in the next time trial. It is purely because of Lance's
determination, the determination of his team mates, Ullrich being
sick in the L'Alpe d'Huez stage, and the fact that USP won the team
time trial that he is leading the race at all. That determination
may not be enough to win this Tour. If Lance loses the lead
tomorrow, as I expect he will, he will probably lose the Tour.
Did you notice that Zubeldia is riding the mountains the way I told
you they should be ridden. Yesterday, he made up a little ground
with a good break but today, he sat on Lance's wheel to save himself
for Luz Ardiden tomorrow. If this man's team had not lost so much
time in the team time trial, he would be a serious threat to Lance,
Ullrich, and Vinokourov. Keep an eye on this guy. If his team ever
gets it together in the team time trial, he could win the Tour.
Expect him to do a break and gain more ground tomorrow.
Vinokourov is now only 18" behind Lance and puts Lance in a tight
spot. Vinokourov knows he has to put more ground on Lance and
Ullrich so expect him to ride hard the next two days to accomplish
this.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's 159.5 km stage finishes with one cat one climb and two HC
climbs. It will be vicious. There are three cat 4 climbs and a road
prime early in the stage. Expect early attacking to get a break off
by KOM riders, for a stage win, and at least one rider like Hushovd
to pick up the sprint points for the Points Title. The big question
is whether USP will tow the peloton and break on the first two big
climbs leaving Lance alone with tired legs or will they try to ride
smart a third day in a row? Even if they ride smart, I believe the
team is so tired that at least most, if not all of them will break
too early. It is very possible that Lance will find himself without
a team on the first HC climb and be forced to do all the chasing. I
believe this will finish him off.
Lance has run out of time with Vinokourov. He has been letting
Vinokourov go up the road to save energy until the end of today's
stage when he had to work to bring time back in. Vinokourov is now
close enough to Lance so that, when Vinokourov attacks on the HC
climb to Luz Ardiden or earlier, Lance must chase. He can't let
either Vinokourov or Ullrich gain any more time and this will put
him in a real tight spot tomorrow.
What I expect to happen tomorrow is that Zubeldia will attack early
on the climb to Luz Ardiden or the first HC climb as he did
yesterday. Then Vinokourov will attack almost immediately forcing
Lance to chase. This will present Ullrich with the opportunity to
sit on Lance's wheel until Lance breaks (if he doesn't break
immediately) and then attack Lance, catch Vinokourov, and take the
lead in the Tour with Vinokourov moving into second place.
If Lance breaks bad enough and early enough, he could even lose
enough time to fall behind Zubeldia and Mayo. I think the next two
days will be very difficult and ugly for USP and Lance. It wont be
pretty. I do believe that Lance will fight very gallantly to the end
of the Tour. He doesn't know how to give up. I really hate being
right about my predictions concerning this Tour and Lance but it is
playing out almost exactly like I said it probably would.
