Stage 16
Key Stage
July 21 Bagneres-de-Bigorre - Luz-Ardiden 159.5 km
As expected, the stage started off with a lot of attacking for stage
win and KOM points. Those early climbs and one early prime really
helped mix things up. Plus, everyone knows now that USP will let a
break go up the road for control.
USP put Hincapie into the break but they pulled it back in and
Hincapie wouldn't work in the break, which tells me they didn't like
the mix. USP finally let Botero and Chavanel go up the road. Botero
was probably going for the stage win and KOM Points. Chavanel was
going for the stage win and to move up for the White Jersey.
Chavanel succeeded only at moving up for the White Jersey. He passed
Petrov of iBanesto and has a solid fourth place for that race.
USP towed the race until they got well onto the cat one climb when
TBI moved forward and Euskaltel followed suit with Telekom just
behind them. This was a sign that those teams were getting ready for
a major battle. This stage was a last prime chance at gaining a lot
of time.
When TBI and Euskaltel took over the work on front, USP sent four
out the back which was probably them resting riders for tomorrow.
The rest of the USP riders slid back on wheel and rested for a
change. It paid off plus they will need the legs for tomorrow.
The attacking started on the first HC climb the way I said it might.
Mercado, Moreau, Mayo, and one other rider started the final battle.
Mayo was trying to set up an attack for Zubeldia that never came.
Remember that I told you that Ullrich made a mistake yesterday in
doing most of the chasing for Vinokourov while Lance mostly rested
on his wheel. Well, Ullrich made the same mistake today. Remember
what I told you about how, if you race to protect second, you are
also protecting first with your legs and will usually pay the price
for it? It works.
Ullrich initiated the chase by attacking and taking Lance and
Zubeldia. Ullrich did most of the work chasing this break. Ullrich
even dropped lance for a while but Lance fought back. I told you
this guy doesn't know how to quit. Lance then sat on Ullrich's wheel
mostly resting with Zubeldia. Their group caught the attack group on
the descent and several other groups caught them.
Mean while, out the back Vinokourov paid for his long hard ride on
the flat finish of yesterday's stage by losing ground today.
Remember that I told you that, if you go hard in the flats you will
lose more time in the mountains than you gained in the flats? It
works. I thought about this last night after I wrote yesterday's
piece. I don't go back and change my articles once they are posted.
About this time, Botero was sent back to wait for Vinokourov. He
helped bring Vinokourov back to the first pack but Vinokourov had
used up too much leg yesterday and ended up losing more ground on
the second climb. He is now over two minutes down.
Then the attacking started on the second HC climb and Lance sat
protected on Ullrich's wheel with Ullrich doing attacking and
chasing until everyone who was going to attack had. Their legs were
now softened up and Lance made Ullrich pay for making the same
mistake two days in a row. He launched his attack blowing everyone
away and putting 52" on the first pack winning the stage. He now
leads Ullrich by 1'07".
I told you that Lance had to go on the offensive today to gain time
on Ullrich and it seems, to everyone's surprise, that he did manage
to save just enough energy from his defensive riding and using time
as a work buffer by letting riders down on GC go up the road to get
the job done. You have to understand that, while that rider was
gaining time on Lance, Lance was resting and saving his legs. Today,
he went to the bank and got all that time back.
Remember that you only have so much energy to expend in a stage race
and you must expend that energy in the right places or you will lose
the race. Even though he was down in fitness, he played the energy
game better than everyone else. Today it showed because his
competition rode hard in too many of the wrong stages. Today, they
paid for it. Tomorrow, I will go over how you ride the GC stages
hard and rest in the KOM stages. Lances competition tried to ride
hard in all the mountain stages to force Lance to work hard in all
those stages also. He had to work hard a little but managed to use
others to do most of that work and it paid off big time today. Lance
has done an excellent job of controlling the race and energy
expenditure.
He knew that, being down in form, he could only go hard in one of
the three GC stages. For the rest of those stages, he had to rest
his legs. To do this, he used the time his team gained for him in
the team time trail as a buffer. That team time trial just keeps
coming back to haunt these guys, doesn't it?
Something Ullrich now has to worry about is that Lance may have held
back a little in the first time trial to save energy for the next
day's mountain stage and this mountain stage. If he did, he will do
better in the next time trial and could have enough time on Ullrich
to win the Tour. On the other hand, if he didn't hold back and that
will be his best ride, he is a little short of time because Ullrich
beat him in the first time trial by 1'36" and Lance only has 1'07".
You can bet Lance will ride his butt off and do his best possible
time trial, but then, so will Ullrich. This Tour could easily be won
by less than one minute and it isn't over yet.
What a great race by Lance. He has out foxed all of his competition
when he was down on form and needed brains to win in place of
lacking braun. They should nick name him the Fox. I just hope he
gets back to form by next year so he doesn't scare the crap out of
us again. :-)
Tomorrow
Tomorrow will be rest day and the Coach's Analysis.
