Stage 17
Key Stage
July 23 Pau - Bayonne 197.5 km
Today started fast, as expected. There were a lot of climbers trying
to get one last chance at a stage win before the race returns to the
flats. The attacks and even the bridging was almost constant for at
least the first 50 kilometers.
USP started the chasing and brought in a number of breaks but so
many riders were determined to go for a long stage win that they
just kept attacking. USP showed that they have converted back to the
two squad strategy to help save their legs.
In checking back over the race a few days ago, I realized that one
reason I had missed on the prediction that USP would crash and burn
as a team on Luz Ardiden is that I forgot to reevaluate the two
strategic changes made in their methods during the Tour. They
started out using the single squad strategy to force the pace but
the riders began to show signs of fatigue by L'Alpe d'Huez, only the
second day in the mountains. The following day, they converted to
the two squad system where they would use four riders one day while
sending four out the back to rest for the next day. The riders were
tiring out a little slower but still too fast so that, by the time
trial, the riders were still in trouble and almost all the riders on
the team finished at least 6 minutes down when a number of them were
good enough to ride a relatively easy TT and finish within three
minutes of the leader. The next day, the team finally began using
the team leverage system I teach to save the riders' legs even more.
They would send one rider up the road in the early break to force
the other teams to chase while the rest of the USP riders got to
rest.
This worked very well for the first two days back in the mountains
permitting them to rest even more and they started it again on the
day for Luz Ardiden but had to pull the break back in because of the
mix. At that time, Botero and Simoni went up the road and USP
decided to just let them go and set a slow pace. It wasn't long
after that that the teams for the other riders high on GC went to
the front and permitted the USP riders to save even more energy.
My original estimate for them breaking on Luz Ardiden was if they
continued with the single squad system all the way to Luz Ardiden. I
simply forgot to check my estimate for them fatiguing with the two
strategy changes which permitted them to rest more and work less.
With all of this and a day of rest, most of them should be fine for
the rest of the Tour(there may be one or two really dead riders who
could still blow, you never know.)
Part of this was that I get so mad when I see coaches hurt riders
who bust their butts with bad coaching. I have been trained to
believe that the most important job I have as a coach is to take
care of my riders and that includes using the best strategies I can
for the event and team. When I see really great athletes suffering
because of bad coaching and strategies, I get furious and can get
carried away. When that happens, you will see me rail on the coaches
involved to (1) teach you not to do what they are doing and why you
should not do it and (2) I know there are coaches reading who don't
have the training I have and I want these coaches to know not to
make the same mistakes. As a coach, your primary job is caring for
your riders. They should be like your children and you have a
responsibility to them.
I got carried away at being mad at the coaches for doing what they
were doing and forgot to check my estimate on when the riders would
fatigue. Sorry about that. I guess it shows I am human and can make
mistakes also.
BTW, if a coach starts to make strategy changes during the race,
even just once, it means that either there has been a surprise
strategy used which screwed things up or that the coach did a bad
strategic analysis and screwed things up. He is trying to save his
teams butt because they are in trouble. Doing it twice usually means
you screwed up really bad.
If I see a coach making a serious mistake, I feel it is my
responsibility to go after them so you wont make the same mistakes.
After all, these are supposed to be the best coaches in the world
and they are supposed to know better than to do some of the stuff
they do. If I had been the USP head coach and their staff had
brought the strategy package to me before the race they started the
mountains with, I would have chewed butt and and said, "How dare you
do this to my riders, we can do better than this." That strategy
just did not fit this Tour. Their riders deserved the coaches
reading the race better.
Back to the race.
Then Tyler Hamilton made a really great move. Knowing that most
riders would not be expecting some one high on GC to get away
because the other teams would chase really hard and bring any break
back in which had a rider high on GC, he attacked AFTER a break was
well up the road and at point in the race where he could quickly
bridge to that break. It was a brilliant move using the element of
surprise. By the time the teams could react, he was with the break.
Plus he had another thing on his side that I am sure he and his
coach had discussed. The team for the rider who was just ahead of
him on GC and would be the first team to chase when their rider
became threatened, Fassa, only had three riders in the race. The
other six riders have abandoned. This meant they would be less
capable of staging a chase to bring in a break of more than 15
riders. When Tyler got far enough up the road to force a chase, it
became a three rider team time trial racing against a 15 rider team
time trial. Guess who was going to win that one.
It wasn't until Tyler got far enough up the road to threaten Mayo
and Zubeldia that Euskaltel joined the chase and even then the
chasing riders were out numbered. It wasn't until Vinokourov was
beginning to be threatened that Telekom joined battle. At this point
and with Tyler solo and the break falling apart, they brought back
in enough time to keep Tyler from advancing past Mayo but not enough
time to keep him from passing Basso. Did I tell you this is a team
sport. It was a brilliant race by Tyler and his coach. I really
liked them shaking hands at the end of the stage just before Tyler
crossed the line. That is what good coaching and strategies can do
for you. It was brilliant.
Did you notice Ullrich riding out to the side of the peloton close
to the front on one of the climbs? He was probably checking to see
how smooth Lance's pedal action was to tell him if Lance was tired
enough to go after in the mountains in order to get a little time
back.
You never look at a rider's face to see how tired he is because some
riders don't show fatigue in their face. You always look at their
body English which includes their pedal action and the position of
their shoulders. If they start pedaling squares or their shoulders
slouch, they are close to blowing. If they have good shoulder
position and smooth pedal action, they are still riding strong. The
pro's can tell when a rider doing a solo breaks because, the instant
he does, his legs of steel turn to nerf and his shoulders and head
sag.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings us back to the flat stages. The 181 km stage is
almost as flat and level as your dining room table. It only has two
road primes and the first one is at 102.5 km. This stage could start
either way, fast or slow. There may be some attacking early because
this is the first of the last three road stages. On the other hand,
the first prime is so far into the stage and they have just come out
of the mountains, it may feel too good to just ride in a group for a
while telling lies...I mean...uh....war stories. :-) Yeah, that's
it.
The race will definitely be going strong by the first road prime and
the battles for the Points Title will heat up with other riders
trying to get one of the last three stage wins for a road stage. The
GC teams will settle in to protecting their top riders for the time
trial and let lower placed riders head up the road in breaks for
control.
Ullrich made obvious what his strategy is. He plans on saving his
legs to win the time trial by enough to take the lead. The USP and
Bianchi teams will spend the next two days getting their riders
safely to the time trial where the battle for the Yellow Jersey will
resume.
Meanwhile, enjoy the battles for the stage wins and Points Jersey.
They will be fast and fun.
