Stage 19
July 25 Bordeaux - Saint-Maixent-l'Ecole 200 km
As I told you before the Tour started, these last flat stages would
be hotly contested for the Points Jersey and stage wins. Partly
because of the tail wind but mostly because of the constant
attacking for the first 61 kilometers, today's stage was the second
fastest in the history of the Tour. At one point, they had a 30
rider break. It almost looked like the peloton had attacked and left
Lance and Jan chasing. Even Zubeldia and Mayo made the 30 rider
break.
Break after break went up the road and was reeled in because the
riders knew a long break would go today and probably stay while
certain sprinter teams wanted that first road prime because there
were three riders within 12 points for the Green Jersey with only
two road stages left. You can expect the ride into Paris to be
brutally fast.
I told you that this tour could be settled with the time bonuses
from the road primes. Apparently, Ullrich and Lance believe so also
because they already started sprinting for those bonuses. It appears
that Ullrich grabbed McEwen's wheel going into the sprint and rode
it to second place picking up 4 seconds with Lance getting third and
2 seconds. Now Ullrich has to beat Lance by 2 seconds less in
tomorrow's time trial to take the lead.
In the Points race, McGee tried to go up the road in a break to eat
up the points for the first prime so McEwen couldn't gain those
points to take the lead for the Green Jersey. He was quickly reeled
in. There was even a three rider attack by Lotto (McEwen's team)
just before the prime. But all the breaks failed and McEwen won the
prime tying Cooke in points. If it had stayed at that, McEwen would
have worn the Green Jersey tomorrow because he gained the most
points in this stage but McEwen also finished ahead of Cooke in the
sprint and now leads Cooke by only 2 points. Zabel is now only 13
points back. Sunday will see a brutal team race for this title. As a
matter of fact, you could see Lotto, FDJ, and Telekom battling for
the points in these primes against USP and Bianchi racing for the
time bonuses. They will be getting in each other's way. And don't
forget that QSD will be trying to get Paolini in for those points
because he is only one point out of fifth place behind O'Grady and
the top five is very important to these teams. Expect CA to fight
back. This could be very interesting with seven sprint trains racing
side-by-side for Paris.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's time trial is very flat for 49 kilometers. This will be a
very long, fast sprint for some of the riders. The rest just need to
turn a good time to hold position. This will be the last significant
sort in this Tour but there should not be too many riders trading
places.
I see three potential races in the top ten tomorrow. First, of
course, is the race for the Yellow Jersey. Ullrich beat Lance by
1'36" in the first time trial when Lance blew (possibly
dehydration). I would expect Lance to do better if the reason he
blew was for anything except that he is so out of form that going
that hard for that long is why he blew. You know he will leave it
all on the road but so will Ullrich. This race could easily
determine the winner of the tour. Even something as mundane as a
flat tire could be huge.
Lance has the tactical advantage because he leads Ullrich by 1'05".
Lance doesn't have to win the stage to keep the lead and win the
Tour. He can't lose more than 1'04" to wear the Yellow Jersey into
Paris. On the other hand, Ullrich did beat Lance by more than he
needs to take the lead and he is defending World Time Trial
Champion. This will be an interesting battle and is very difficult
to call. The fans for both have their valid arguments.
The second battle will be between Mayo and Hamilton for fifth place.
Mayo only leads Tyler by 1'10" but Tyler beat Mayo in the last time
trial by 2'20", twice the time he needs to move into fifth. But Mayo
did a much better time trial in the Dauphine. What it will come down
to is which time trial will Mayo most closely repeat.
This race could also easily end up seconds apart and give us two
more teams trying to pickup road primes Sunday. That would put us at
nine teams racing for road primes or almost half the peloton. Did I
tell you this could get exciting? If you think today's stage was
fast...Sunday's pace could destroy the peloton on flat ground and
could cause significant changes on GC because of top riders not
expecting the break up and getting caught in chasing groups loosing
time. I have seen this happen in more than one stage race. If this
happens and you snooze, you lose.
The third race in the top ten on GC is a little more of a long shot
but could still get interesting. It is for tenth spot between Sastre
and Menchov. They are only 57" apart but Sastre only beat Menchov in
the last time trial by 37". Most likely, if neither rider has any
problems or an unusually good day, there wont be a change, but, hey,
with what we have already seen in this Tour, don't be surprised if
the guy in last place wins this Tour. He could always take an early
solo flyer Sunday and the peloton get caught behind one of those
notorious French protests for just enough time for him to win. We
have already seen almost that strange happen. :-) What a race.
