Stage 20
Key Stage
July 26 Pornic - NantesTime Trial 49 km
What a crazy bike race. Tomorrow, don't be surprised if Hans De
Clercq, who is 4 hours 48 minutes 50 seconds down in last place,
wins the Tour. This has been one crazy ride.
Some really nasty weather, a wet and dangerous course, a strong tail
wind, plenty of crashes, and you get some surprises. This stage
really shows what I have taught about racing in bad weather. Go as
hard as you can because there will be plenty of riders who will back
off the pedals or crash giving you an increased opportunity to win.
Some riders are mentally and technically superior in bad weather and
others should stay home, even among the pro's.
Hamilton did just that with a really spectacular bad weather ride.
He finished second in the stage and not only beat Mayo but managed
to put almost two minutes into Zubeldia who had beat him in the last
time trial by three seconds. Some of this could easily have been
that Tyler's broken collar bone has been mending and was not as much
of a problem. He flew from sixth overall on GC to fourth giving the
US two riders in the top four. His was the most radical change in
the top ten for GC.
Both Zubeldia and Mayo dropped one spot and Mancebo swapped places
with Sastre after Mancebo, who beat Sastre in the last TT by 52"
finished an incredibly poor 63rd at 3'37" losing almost one minute
to Sastre and one spot on GC. Mancebo's finish may indicate a crash
but I didn't see anything about that. Other than that, no changes in
the top ten on GC.
Lance rode as if he is not off form and was just behind Ullrich in
the time trial when Ullrich lost about 25 seconds in a crash
finishing 9 seconds behind Lance for the day increasing Lance's lead
to 1'16". If he had not crashed, he might have beaten Lance by only
16 seconds moving him to about 49 seconds behind Lance. That would
not have put him close enough to have a chance at winning, well,
except for this year. Come to think of it, who knows? We will just
have to show up tomorrow and find out.
With these results, the race for GC SHOULD be over but then again,
watch Tyler pass everyone tomorrow. :-) Why not? The guy has
momentum.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's short 152 km stage starts in some small hills with only
one KOM prime on a cat 4 climb at 23.5 km. There could be a little
dash for this concerning the top five places because Mercado is in
4th spot with 133 points, Moreau is in 5th spot with 132 points, and
Mayo (who is probably smarting after dropping out of the top five on
GC) is in 6th spot with 130 points. Since the top five are so
important for all titles and there will be just enough points to
change these positions, keep your eyes out for this brief little
fight.
As a tradition, they tend to start the last stage a little slow kind
of like a parade but expect some early attacking with these three
riders trying to make the break to get those KOM points. If that
happens, there should be an early break up the road but expect it to
get pulled back in time for the two road primes on the Champs
Elysees.
Tomorrow's big battle will be for the Points Title. The top three on
Points are all within 13 points of each other and there are only two
points separating the first two riders. It is also important to note
that Hushovd is 14 points behind Zabel who is in third. I don't
think it is likely that Hushovd will displace Zabel from the last
podium spot but, in this race, why not?
Another important little race is with O'Grady on the bubble for the
top five only one point ahead of Paolini in 6th. This could be
pretty hotly contested with O'Grady and Paolini both trying to get
on break to get one or both road primes. Keep an eye on this race.
My congratulations go out to both Lance and Hamilton for a great
Tour. Here is hoping Lance gets back in form and Tyler keeps the
rubber side down next year for a better Tour. Also keep an eye on
how the others develop. Euskaltel has become a force this year and
should definitely be back to try again next year.
There were so many surprises this year that it would take a book to
count them all. What a race.
