Stage 5

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Stage 5

Key Stage

July 9 Joinville - Saint-Dizier Team TT 68 km

Today was the first significant sort of the Tour. There will be four more significant sorts where the riders will be shuffled around. The first of these will be the first set of mountain stages where the climbers will rise through the ranks displacing those who don't climb well. In the first time trial, riders who can time trail and climb well will begin to displace those climbers who can't time trail well. In the next set of mountain stages, the climbers who time trail well will make their way back towards the top displacing the GC riders like Millar who don't climb as well. In the final time trail, expect to see the GC riders fine tune the top ten or so positions.

What today's sort left was a grouping of riders based on team strength and in relation to their placings in the Prologue. USPS has a little problem in that they have taken the lead extremely early in the Tour and don't want to waste team energy defending the title this early. The only riders within one minute of Pena are members of the USPS, ONCE, and Bianchi teams. None of these teams should want to assume the lead this early in the race, especially for a domestique. The nearest placed riders who should want to assume the lead at this time are Kirsipuu at 1'35" and Flickinger at 1'38".

In order for USPS to give up the lead and save their legs for later when it will be needed, they have to encourage riders who are over 1'30" down get up the road, put decent time on the peloton, and stay off. I will address this more in my discussion about tomorrow's stage.

There is a very important rule you have to learn about stage racing that, I am amazed even most pro's don't know. It is very simple, YOU HAVE TO RIDE THE WHOLE RACE! You can't just ride part of a stage race. This means that, if you want to win a stage race, you have to be good at everything that is required in the stage race. It amazes me how many professional riders and coaches will work to become extremely good at one aspect of a stage race such as climbing and be lousy at the rest while hoping to win the race. Duh, hello!!!

I have seen few coaches and riders who really understand this very basic principle of stage racing. At this point, you must ask yourself what are the requirements for winning the Tour? There are five basic elements you must develop or you are not going to be in the race and are only kidding yourself and your sponsors about having a chance to win the Tour.

Tour Requirements
Flat Speed
Climbing Speed
Time Trialing Speed
Team Time Trialing
Team Tactics
Flat Speed

If you can't spin at 100+ rmps on flat ground at over 35 mph for hours, you will get dropped in the flat stages and lose time before you ever get to any of the most significant stages. This happened to the 7-Eleven and Columbian teams the first few years they rode the Tour.

I remember the cycling media ranting about how the Columbians were going to kick Euro butt the first year they rode the Tour because the Columbians were excellent climbers. The Columbians died in the flats before they ever reached the mountains. They lost so much time it was impossible for them to regain even half of it in the mountains.

Before the Tour, I would tell ranting cycling enthusiasts that the Columbians would not finish top ten but they would respond that Winning, Bicycling Magazine, and Velonews said they were going to kick butt. After their demise, everyone was amazed except me and the other riders and coaches who knew better. YOU CAN'T WIN THE TOUR JUST BECAUSE YOU ARE A GREAT CLIMBER!!!

If you can't go fast in the flats for hours at a time, you can't ride the Tour!!! End of story!

Climbing Speed

This is the one talent that everyone knows about and understands but over emphasizes. This is one of the most important talents but not the only important talent for a Tour racer. But it is a requirement that you must also be able to go fast vertically or you can't win the Tour.

Time Trialing Speed

I can't count the pro riders I have heard state that, in the mountains, they will make up five to ten minutes lost in the time trails and HAVE NOT SEEN ONE DO IT IN 35 YEARS OF RACING!!! IT WONT HAPPEN!!! If you can't go fast by yourself on flat to rolling ground, you will lose time and get to race for leftovers! Bet on it!

Team Time Trialing

This one really blows my mind. It absolutely amazes me how many people and even professional riders and coaches don't get this one. TEAM TIME TRIALING IS A TEAM SPORT WHICH REQUIRES EFFICIENT CHANGE OFF'S AND RIDING TECHNIQUES!!! If your riding habits and techniques cause you to waste just 10% of your energy in an 80 minute team time trial like today's stage, YOU WILL LOSE EIGHT MINUTES!!! If you only waste 5% of your energy, you will lose four minutes and, if you just waste 1% of your energy, you will lose 52 seconds.

Team time trialing is more than a group of dummies getting together and going fast. It requires the finest tuned riding skills and habits developed by working on your riding skills and habits. I have told you repeatedly that road racing is an energy efficiency sport where you get the most you can out of the energy you have to expend during the race understanding that you only have so much energy you can expend during the race before you blow up.

How many times must I state that properly developed bicycle road racing is a team sport? All team sports require that you develop the best sports play efficiency with your team mates. HOW CAN YOU WIN A TEAM TIME TRIAL IN A STAGE RACE WITH SLOPPY RIDING HABITS AND SKILLS??? IT WON'T HAPPEN!!!

Team Tactics

It amazes me that, even with riders like Lance and LeMond telling us that this is a team sport, how many people keep wanting to believe this is an individual sport. Get a clue.

If you want to beat good teams, you must become a better team. If you want to keep getting beat by good teams, keep believing this is an individual sport. It works.

You must learn complex team tactics to be a success in bicycle road racing. If you fail to do so, you will just make the rest of us look much better than we are. On behalf of all those good teams out there, to those who want to believe this is an individual sport, I want to say thank you for staying stupid. You really make us look so very good. Thank you.

My point here with the team time trail is that most of the teams with riders who have potential to be competitive in the top five positions handicap their top riders by not developing their teams for team time trialing. Their riders are great climbers and time trailists but their teams are not great time trail teams and keep putting their team leaders out of the race with bad riding.

Botero is down 1'30", Simoni is down 3'09", and Mayo is down 3'35" because their coaches did not properly prepare their teams for the team time trail. They left out the preparation for one of the most important stages in the race and have paid the price again. Once again, Botero is relegated to racing for a top three spot when he should be racing for the win. It is not as bad as it was last year when he lost over 5 minutes and was only racing for a top five spot but he has still become a long shot for the win. Euskaltel did better than last years 5 minute deficit but they still lost Mayo almost three minutes. Why give your competition that much of an advantage. Make them earn it!!!

This has almost certainly become a three rider race with Botero being a decent long shot as a fourth competitor. Pena, Heras, Azevedo, Mancebo, Mayo, and Zubeldia are now racing for a top five slot with the rest of them racing for a top ten slot.

In looking at the standings, you have to understand that there are a lot of riders closer to the top who are there largely because they were on a strong team and will drop down quickly when they get to the mountains and time trials. You have to understand two things about using these standings. First, you can tactically use these placings to provide or understand tactical potentials for the flats and for the first set of mountains.

USPS has several options because they now have four strong climbers ahead of the next team leader, Beloki, and five ahead of Ullrich with the mountains being the next major sort for the race. This will provide potentially very powerful team leverage where Lance can send any of four riders up the road in the mountains and Beloki and Ullrich must chase. It gives USPS a strong tactical advantage going into the mountains.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, USPS will begin dealing with a strategic problem. They have taken the lead too early in the race. If they try to defend the lead at this point, they will break their legs, and lose the race in the second set of mountains. They need to get rid of the lead until at least L'Alpe d'Huez or the first time trail.

Tomorrow morning, I expect Lance to make the announcement that USPS will not defend the Yellow Jersey at this point. When the racing starts, they will let a break go up the road and make a token effort of chasing at the front permitting the break to quickly gain ground. This will force the teams competing against the riders in the break for the titles those riders are after to force the chase themselves permitting USPS to slide back into the peloton to rest for the mountains and later stages.

After Lance makes this announcement, the riders like Flickinger will see the opportunity and the racing at the front will be hot and furious with many riders trying to get up the road early. When a break is finally established, USPS will settle the pack down by setting pace until other teams begin to force the chase.

Look for very early and hard attacking with riders like Flickinger, Mengin, Beneteau, Finot, Jegou, Hushovd, and others trying to get a last minute chance at a jersey. These riders only have two more days before the mountains to secure a temporary hold on a jersey. They will probably settle with a six rider break, let it gain over ten minutes, and let the break finish over three minutes ahead of the peloton giving the Yellow Jersey to some one else.

Deals are probably being made by teams tonight to put riders up the road who are not high in more than one subtitle. The teams are deciding who will go on the attack tomorrow. It will be a very aggressive and fast stage.

This is why you must learn to read the subtitle races and learn to use them to your benefit. They are not insignificant races. If I were coaching USPS, I would be making offers to riders like Flickinger and Mengin letting them know that, "we will let you go up the road early and will work to keep you there to the finish if you take the lead away from us." USPS will get it back when it counts.

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