Stage 7
July 11 Nevers - Lyon 230 km
Wow, what a stage. Tactically, this was the most brilliant and
exciting stage so far this Tour. It started as I said with plenty of
early attacking for an early break and almost finished with a
winning break. A few small breaks were brought back and it looked
like an eight rider break might begin to make it but the sprinter
teams decided they wanted to go for the points in the first prime
and pulled the break back in. Then O'Grady and Gesline spoiled their
plans by taking an early flyer for the prime. It was great timing
and great racing.
O'Grady and Gesline took the first places in the prime,
respectively, with Fassa putting Petacchi across for the last two
points giving Petacchi the lead for the Points Title. It was one
great move after another.
Following the first prime, the peloton settled down and let the
O'Grady/Gesline break go up the road for control and to keep the
second longest stage in the Tour from turning into a sprinters
slugfest. The teams working for GC were more than willing to let the
other teams fight it out over the subtitles at a controlled pace
with the second longest stage and first day in the mountains coming
up tomorrow.
Now some really great tactics began to unfold. You have to
understand that the French are very romantic and nostalgic. Today's
stage was finishing within seven kilometers of the first stage
finish for the first Tour de France. Of course the French would love
to have a Frenchman win this stage. They knew that, if it came to a
pack sprint, the stage winner would probably be a German,
Australian, or Italian. So how do you try to improve the chances
that a Frenchman will win the stage?
Simple, you get a Frenchman in a two man break giving France an
almost 50% chance of winning and keep the break off. Why do you
think three French teams set at the front of the peloton going just
fast enough to keep other riders from attacking and other teams from
joining the chase while permitting the break to open such a big
lead? Think about it.
It almost worked too because the break didn't get caught until the
last 500 meters. As a matter of fact, Fassa thought it would not get
caught and quit chasing about 10 kilometers from the finish but
other sprinter teams refused to let it happen and ended up giving
the sprint to Fassa rider, Petacchi, anyways.
Then McEwen's team faked a bad day as an excuse to not help with the
chase forcing Fassa to do a lot of chasing hoping the extra work by
Fassa while Lotto rested in the pack would help them beat Petacchi
in the sprint. It was a good idea but fell apart when McEwen and
Zabel crashed only 10 kilometers from the finish putting him out of
the sprint completely and causing him to lose the lead for the
Points Jersey. McEwen dropped to third and Zable dropped to fifth.
I hope you paid attention to the team tactics Lotto used for the
second and third primes to help McEwen regain the lead for the
Points Jersey when Baguet took a flyer for the third spot in the
second prime to keep Petacchi from getting those points also and
then Brandt lead out McEwen for the third spot in the last prime.
There was some great team racing going on out there.
In the middle of all this excitement, Mengin managed to pick up
enough KOM points to regain his lead for the KOM Jersey the day
before the mountains start. For the last KOM prime, Mengin was lead
out by Casar who got the points just behind Mengin increasing his
lead even more. It really helps if the leadout rider hangs in to
pick up some points also.
I am seeing Bruyneel using some very progressive and brilliant
tactics to keep the Yellow Jersey without one of his riders taking a
stroke at the front. This is the best coaching I have ever seen him
do and, if he can be as successful at it for the rest of the Tour,
Lance could take the lead on L'Alpe d'Huez and still win the Tour
with a strong team intact. What he is doing is just what I have been
telling you to do for years. He is using the races for the subtitles
to control the peloton and race to keep Pena in the Yellow Jersey.
For example, today, USP had three French teams controlling the race,
followed by the chase efforts of the sprinter teams with their
combined work keeping Pena in Yellow. Bruyneel had at least half a
dozen teams expend their energy to keep Pena in Yellow while his own
team rested all day. It is absolutely brilliant and, so far, is
working great. We will see how well it will work later. Remember
that the other teams will have to work very hard to take the lead
away from Petacchi in the remaining flat stages. Can Bruyneel use
those teams to protect Lance's lead for the rest of the flat stages?
Tomorrow
I have this stage as being rated as only the sixth most significant
mountain stage this year but it has a lot of potential. It is the
second longest stage in the Tour following the longest stage and
preceding the most significant mountain stage. It doesn't have a
mountain top finish but the finish is slightly elevated and is only
22 kms from the top of the only cat one climb with a cat three climb
in the last 22 km. The climbing is spread throughout the long stage
and legs will get really tired towards the end with a 14.3 km, 6.9%
grade close to the finish.
What I expect to see happen tomorrow will be that the non-climbers
will drop down in GC while the climbers will begin to work their way
towards the top. Look for an early break of riders going after the
KOM title and a stage win knowing that the top climbers will want to
save as much as possible for L'Alpe d'Huez on the next day. You will
see the top GC riders and climbers bunching towards the top with the
stage possibly finishing in groups.
I expect to see major changes in the top standings for the Yellow
Jersey, White Jersey, Team GC, and KOM Jersey. Over the next three
days, new riders will move towards the top for the Points Jersey and
Combativity Jersey (unfortunately, they are not posting the results
for the Combativity Jersey this year.)
Will Bruyneel find a way to use Pena in the Yellow Jersey to tire
out the other team's GC riders and set up Lance for the win? We will
see.
I expect to see more riders quit tomorrow because their injuries
will be too much in the mountains. It appears that Hamilton is
hanging in there for the mountains. I am wondering how bad his
collar bone is really fractured. The media often over sensationalize
such things. It may just be a microfracture that will hurt but he
may still be able to do well with it. We will see over the next
three days.
Don't you just love bike racing?
