Stage 8
Key Stage
July 12 Lyon - Morzine 226.5 km
Today's stage went pretty much as I expected. It sorted the
non-climbers out of the top GC standings, broke the peloton into
groups, and the top GC riders and climbers did not gain time on each
other. The main focus for the day was (1) the KOM race and stage win
and (2) getting the non-climbers out of the top GC standings.
I hope you are realizing that racing for GC and racing for KOM use
opposite strategies. For KOM, you go on long breaks to eliminate as
much competition as possible in long stages with a lot of hard
climbs to maximize potential points. For GC, you focus on the few
stages with really hard mountain top finishes and try to gain as
much time as possible in as short a distance as possible to conserve
energy and maximize energy expenditure efficiency.
The three most significant mountain stages for GC are the three
least significant mountain stages for KOM and the four least
significant mountain stages for GC are the four most significant
stages for KOM. Today and Monday are KOM stages with tomorrow being
the most significant mountain stage for GC.
Just like I told you, the titles that would undergo the greatest
change today were the three timed titles for the Yellow Jersey,
White Jersey, and Team GC along with the KOM Jersey. Today's first
sort left the top climbers and GC riders mixed at the top based on
their times from the team time trial and prologue. The next two days
will continue this sort with the GC riders and climbers moving up
more but the pure climbers will temporarily displace some of the
weaker climbing GC riders. When they leave the mountains, the GC
standings will be primarily based on climbing, the team time trail,
and the prologue in that order. The first time trial will sort the
climbers out of the top GC standings and the ranks will close
between the GC riders. Following that stage, the next mountains and
time trial will be used to position the GC riders at the top based
on ability and tactics.
The basic strategy for the top GC riders in today's stage was one of
damage control. They wanted to be sure not to lose a lot of time to
the other GC riders. Several, Simoni and Botero, did lose
considerable time. They lost more than I had expected telling me
that Botero may still be more out of form than I had thought he
would be or it is possible that both Simoni and Botero just did not
do well climbing in today's heat. Some riders don't do well in
either hot or cold weather and the weather is something you really
can't predict. It is the little things like this that will shoot
holes in your guesses for the top spots. Get used to it.
Tyler did very well in today's climb telling me that either the
climbing was not bad enough to bother his collar bone enough to put
him out, it will take several mountains stages to put him out, or
his collar bone is not as serious as the sensationalizing media made
it out to be. We will find out in the next few days. It is possible
that his shoulder will be so sore tomorrow morning from today's
climbing that he wont be able to start tomorrow's stage. I have seen
this happen a number of times. He may not get any sleep tonight.
As I told you earlier, Petacchi didn't finish the stages in the
mountains. As a matter of fact, he didn't finish the first mountain
stage. I figured this might be the case when he got dropped on the
cat 4 climb but then he did manage to win a stage sprint after a cat
3 climb so it became a question of whether he would finish the
mountains. Today, that question go answered. He is out and Cooke has
taken the lead for Points. Like I told you, it is the little things
which can tell the big stories. Keep an eye on them.
Petacchi wasn't the only one to abandon today. In all, there were
seven riders who quit today. Two teams dropped by two riders each.
The rider attrition has begun and we will see who will have the team
strength to support team goals. Remember that you have to follow
this attrition of riders for each team. This is a team sport.
Today's stage started with early attacking and the winning break got
its start in the first kilometer with a number of unsuccessful
bridging attempts before Virenque managed to bridge to the break
with a powerful effort. It was a great ride today by Virenque. He is
looking good for winning the KOM title his sixth time this year.
Kelme did a lot of the early attacking which should tell you they
are really focused on getting the KOM title this year. Watch them
for future KOM stages.
Then the USP team started their defensive chasing and race control
two stages earlier than I had previously said would not be smart for
them to do. If they can't use the subtitle racing during the two
flat stages between the two mountain sets to control the peloton and
defend their lead and they have to ride the front of the peloton
during that time, I don't see any way the team can last through all
the mountains intact without blowing apart. I don't care how strong
you are, you can only take so many pulls on the front of the peloton
before you legs blow and your butt slams through the back door. The
Posties have already expended energy for one stage. How much longer
can they do this before they break like last year? Will Lance be
able to defend his lead without them like he did last year with an
extra day in the mountains?
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage is 219 km with one cat 2 climb and two HC climbs.
The stage finishes at the top of the second HC climb, L'Alpe d'Huez,
the most feared climb in the Tour. This is the most significant GC
mountain stage in this Tour. It will be the first time the GC riders
begin to gain time on each other but look for pure climbers to be in
the mix on GC by the end of the day.
Expect to see an early break for KOM and the stage win with riders
hoping they can have enough time by the bottom of L'Alpe d'Huez to
hold off the Armstrong charge for the stage win. Virenque should sit
in to rest from today's hard effort and for another hard effort the
next day while doing damage control tomorrow by getting as many
climbing points as he can from within the peloton. The Posties will
probably control the front of the peloton for the stage to set Lance
up for L'Alpe d'Huez. I expect to see Lance, Beloki, and Ullrich
finish the day in the top five on GC with Lance in Yellow.
My top ten guess is already beginning to take form with five of my
riders already in the top ten, Lance, Beloki, Heras, Ullrich, and
Azevedo. With Simoni and Botero losing so much time today, my top 13
guesses, Millar and Beltran may also finish in the top ten. Beltran
is already there but I expect him and Heras to lose time in the time
trial. More of my riders will move up by the end of the first time
trial. Of course, there is always the attrition thing to mess things
up for me. :-) That is bike racing.
