Stage 9
Key Stage
July 13 Sallanches - L'Alpe d'Huez 211 km
Again, the stage started out pretty much as I figured. There was a
lot of attacking to the point that it briefly broke the peloton
apart. I told you that, after yesterday's long break, Virenque would
defend his KOM Jersey from within the peloton. He did an excellent
job of doing this by brilliantly using his QSD team to bring the
early breaks back in so he could win the first two KOM primes. After
that, he used them to keep him up front so he could place high in
the remaining KOM primes for the points left over by the break
before the climb up L'Alpe d'Huez. His break yesterday finally
caught up with him on L'Alpe d'Huez where he blew up but struggled
to the top and kept his KOM Jersey. This strategy worked so well
that Virenque almost doubled his KOM points from within the peloton.
We will see if he has anything left for tomorrow.
Tyler Hamilton has to be the toughest rider in the Tour. I just saw
him on television and he was clearly in pain for at least the first
few days following his crash. Today, he rose to the occasion by
attacking Lance on L'Alpe d'Huez. He is riding much stronger than
his performance in the Dauphine indicated. It is important to
understand that some athletes will actually do much better if they
have an incident like this than they would if nothing had happened
to them. But then again, maybe there is a conspiracy to destroy my
top ten guess. :-)
USP did an excellent job today of letting QSD keep things together
and force the pace for the KOM title while USP rested. Just before
the first HC climb, USP took control and used the strategy Bruyneel
always uses in the mountains. He has the USP riders force the pace
to break and drop as many riders as possible and then Lance will
attack the last major climb in the desired stage to break and drop
the rest. The team did their job this year but the strategy failed
really bad because Lance couldn't devastate the remaining riders on
the most significant climb for this year's Tour.
On the last climb up L'Alpe d'Huez, Beltran shattered the first pack
brilliantly and then Heras took over forcing the pace with just a
few riders left in an effort to drop more riders before Lance took
over. At this time, Beloki attacked Heras and the resulting chase by
Lance dropped everyone except Tyler and Mayo. After the trio caught
Beloki, Mayo took off to never be seen again. Then Beloki attacked
Lance with Lance covering the attack. Even with all this going on,
Zubeldia caught the small group, Tyler attacked Lance, Beloki
attacked again, and then Vinokourov, Heras, and Laiseka caught the
group. Next, Vinokourov attacked to never be seen again, Mancebo
caught the group, Basso caught the group, Tyler attacked again, and
Beloki attacked again just before the group of seven riders crossed
the finish together.
This is clearly not the Lance Armstrong of the past few years when
his team would destroy almost everyone and Lance would destroy what
was left to cross the finish going away. I know that some will say
that Lance was marking Beloki but that only proves my point because
Lance has never had to mark Beloki or Ullrich. He would just crush
them relentlessly.
This is the first time in years that the first pack on the last
climb of a significant climbing stage grew after the USP team
finished their job. After Beloki's first attack, six riders caught
the group before the finish and there were eight attacks against
Lance all the way to the top of the climb with Beloki making four,
Tyler making two, Mayo successfully making a winning attack, and
Vinokourov successfully making his attack for second place.
For the first time in years, Lance was forced to race defensively on
the most significant climb in the Tour repeatedly chasing down
attacks by other riders. last year, he would have put at least one
or two minutes into Beloki and the others. This year, Lance is only
leading Beloki by 40" with the first seven riders within 2 minutes
of Lance and the first nine riders within the first 3 minutes of
Lance following the most significant climbing stage in the Tour.
Then there are those who will say it is just that the other riders
have all improved so much in just one year. It is very unlikely that
nine other riders would improve that much in just one year with
Lance remaining the same.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that Lance is clearly
off form. It seems that those first two red flags I told you about
meant something. Lance could be in trouble this year. If Lance can't
put time into the top eight climbers on L'Alpe d'Huez, then can he
hold onto the lead? Will he have the strength to make up any real
time in the coming time trial? Will the relay attacking of Beloki,
Mayo, Tyler, and Vinokourov break Lance in future climbing stages
causing Lance to loose time and the race?
This problem means that the tactical design of the Tour will be even
more significant than I had thought. First, USP has been forcing the
pace on the front for at least part of the first two mountain stages
or two days earlier than I had anticipated meaning they will be even
more likely to break in the second set of mountains. If Lance is off
form and his team breaks, he probably wont have the strength to
defend his lead without his legs breaking, especially if his team
breaks one or two days earlier than I would expect it to break.
To help you learn, I want to give you an analysis of what I would do
as a coach if Lance was my rider and off form. First, considering
his medical history, immediately following the Tour, I would have
him see a doctor to make sure there is nothing wrong with him
medically, especially to see if his cancer has started coming back.
But I would look for other things like low grade infections which
can also bring your performance down.
I would take the results from the medical tests and discuss the
outcome with Lance. If he has a medical problem, we must consider
whether it can be cured and how long it will take or whether he will
be able to continue competing. If he doesn't have a medical problem,
then we must consider that he is overtrained. If he is overtrained,
then we must determine why he is overtrained and rebuild his
training program.
Some of the things we have to watch for at least the next week are,
will Bruyneel change his team strategy, does Carmichael have Lance
overtrained, will the other pro's be encouraged by today's
performance with riders attacking and catching Lance and start a
"feeding frenzy" of attacks in the mountains, and will USP be able
to hold together and defend the Yellow Jersey?
It is interesting that all three of my top three picks are already
in order with three more of my top ten picks already in the top ten
and several more not far out of it. Vinokourov will undoubtedly
replace Botero as team leader for Telekom. I expect to see Basso and
Jaksche drop from the top ten in the next week with Beltran moving
up. Other riders who could barge into this elite group are Zubeldia,
Menchov, and Moreau.
If you remember a few years ago that I told you to keep an eye on
Zubeldia because I thought he had potential as a GC rider. It looks
like that day is getting close. He is greatly improved this year and
doing very well. Watch this guy.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage will be 184.5 km with one cat one climb, one HC
climb, one cat two climb, and one cat three climb. The stage starts
hard and steep but gets easier so it will be difficult to keep a
break off. I do expect early attacking with a big race for KOM
points on the first few climbs and a break for the rest of the KOM
points and the stage win. This is more of a KOM stage than a GC
stage.
Watch for Virenque and his QSD team to work hard to get the points
for the first two and biggest climbs in the stage. Then watch a good
sized group get off after the second major climb with a good
possibility of staying off with a small pack sprint at the end.
Lance and the other GC riders and teams will police the peloton
while trying to rest. Keep an eye on how much the USP team works
tomorrow and the next two flat stages.
