Rest Day & Coach's Analysis
Situational Analysis
If we only look at the top GC contenders, we see that Mayo and
Zubeldia are in serious trouble at over 5 minutes down primarily
because of the crash a few days ago putting them out of competition
for first place but they still have a chance to make top three to
five on GC. You can bet that they are not just going to lay down and
roll over for the other riders. It is most likely that they
will give their best battle and will, therefore, play a significant
part in the coming battle. Don't just ignore them. They
are too good.
Heras is in a little trouble at 1'45" down but he has Galdeano
positioned just above him on GC at 1'29" providing Heras with some
team leverage. He can still win the race but, first, he has to
dig his way out of a nice little hole. Basso and Leipheimer
are in fair condition at 1'17" and 1'08" respectively. They
are within striking distance of first place plus Basso has Julich at
1' for team leverage. They could easily be a factor in this
race and could even upset the race, if things went right but I
expect them to be more of a factor in who will finish in the top
five.
Armstrong, Hamilton, Mancebo, and Ullrich are all within 55 seconds
of each other and should make up the main battle with Armstrong
having Azevedo positioned only 22 seconds behind Lance and Hamilton
having Sevilla only 8 seconds behind Hamilton. Mancebo may or
may not play a significant factor in the final battle for the Yellow
Jersey because he has been racing hard in the flats the last few
days telling me that either his coach doesn't believe he has a
chance and is going for what he can get now or they messed up.
He could easily get a podium spot by using the right tactics.
Tomorrow will be the last flat stage before the first and longest
mountain stage. The first mountain stage will be followed by
another flat stage. The next two stages are two of the three
most important stages because they are both mountain top finishes.
This is also important because the riders will be forced to race
hard for a mountain top finish two days in a row, will get one flat
stage and one rest day before riding the fourth most significant
mountain stage which is followed by the most important stage, the
time trial up Alpe de Huez.
If they race hard up both mountain top finishes, their legs will be
very tired and some legs my either be about to break or will have
broken. With one flat day and one rest day, their legs
probably wont be completely recovered by the next mountain day and
Alpe de Huez TT. Legs could break on Alpe de Huez causing one
or more riders to lose a lot of time. Watch for this.
If you are Mayo and Zubeldia, you have to make up your time on the
two mountain top finish stages and the Alpe de Huez TT. Every
one knows this and you should expect to see one or both of them take
off early on these two mountain top climbs. This is where
being able to predict the actions of other riders gets important.
If you are Hamilton, Mancebo, Ullrich, Heras, or the other top GC
riders, you can mark Mayo and Zubeldia to try and go with them
forcing Lance to chase you while you rest on a wheel OR if
you are Hamilton, Heras, or Basso, you can have your team mate mark
Mayo and Zubeldia to go with them forcing Lance to chase your well
placed team mates while you rest on Lance's wheel. The latter
is using team leverage.
Of course, Lance's expected counter would be (if he has not used up
and dropped Azevedo) to have Azevedo chase while he rests on
Azevedo's wheel and then attack later. BUT if Lance were to
use team leverage to force his competitors to race Azevedo for
second, he would send Azevedo up the road with Mayo and Zubeldia
forcing his competitors to chase Azevedo while Lance rests on his
competitor's wheels and then attacks his competitors later.
Don't you just love bike chess?
These are some of the things you should watch for over the
next five days. Keep in mind that strong GC riders who may not
be able to win the race can still be a factor in the race. You
have to take them into consideration when developing your strategies
and tactics.
Tomorrow
The St Leonard de Noblat-Gueret stage is 160.5 kilometers long and
is mostly rolling hills. There are two Cat 4 climbs at 34 km
and 92 km. The three road primes are at 55.5 km, 77.5 km, and
116 km. The primes are all far enough into the stage so that
no teams SHOULD (that doesn't mean one or two wont do it) try to
keep the breaks in until they reach a prime. Expect pretty
much the same group of riders to attempt to break away tomorrow that
you would have expect for yesterday. These will include riders
like Voigt, Bettini, Tomback, and others. Remember that there
are only three more flat stages, including tomorrow, and the riders
who have the best chance of winning a flat stage only have three
more chances to win a stage this year. There should be a lot
of early attacking and the break could stay off especially if they
have large enough group and/or open enough time very quickly.
I expect the sprinter teams to begin trying to bring the break back
in at about the mid point in the stage. Remember that this is
one of the shorter road stages making it a little easier for the
break to stay off.
