Rest Day & Coach's Analysis
I wanted to watch the Tour on TV before writing this analysis and am
glad I did. I am finding the news flashes at the Tour site to
be less dependable concerning information. This is the second
year in a row that I have had this problem. What I saw on TV
today was a very different story than the information I have been
getting from the news flashes. It turns out that the only top
contender put out of the race for the Yellow Jersey because of being
off form was Ullrich. The other four top contenders and four
of my top six picks, Hamilton, Heras, Mayo, and Zubeldia were put
out of contention and even out of the Tour because of crashes.
We know that Mayo and Zubeldia were put out of contention for the
Yellow Jersey because of the crash just before the cobbles.
What was not made known to us was that the reason Zubeldia quit and
Mayo tried to quit is because of the extreme anxiety and depression
caused by dropping from being a potential winner to racing for a top
five placing. It is normal among most top athletes when they
are being portrayed as potential winners and suddenly have no hope
of such to become so despondent that they simply can't focus enough
to continue the competition. This is what happened to both
Zubeldia and Mayo. They were not dropped do to a lack of
fitness as the news flashes made it appear.
Hamilton being dropped and withdrawing from the race was because of
a lower back injury caused in his crash. I know from personal
experience as both a coach and racer how extremely difficult it is
to climb with a lower back problem. It is almost impossible
and is much easier to climb with any number of other injuries such
as a broken collar bone. I don't blame Hamilton for being
dropped and having to quit the race. You would be surprised at
how much your use your lower back to climb.
Heras being dropped and losing enough time so that he is now out of
contention was because of a crash on a decent. He seems to
have also been injured and is having trouble climbing.
This means that 80% of Lance's top competition for this year was
eliminated because of the crashes and we were denied the expected
battles for the Yellow Jersey because of the crashes. It
should also be pointed out that Lance was denied the battle and
chance to prove how strong he really is against this competition.
I am sure he is disappointed. Something that you have to keep
in mind is that any one of these crashes could have just as easily
taken Lance out of the Tour and still can. There are still
four road stages left in the Tour. The only reason we didn't
get so see a really great battle in the Tour this year, tactically,
the Tour is almost already over, and we are going to get a boring
Tour for the next week as far as the Yellow Jersy is because these
riders were on the wrong wheel at the wrong time. And just as
bad as this is that the same thing could just as easily happen to
Lance in the remaining road stages denying him his sixth Tour win.
Think of it, if Lance finds himself on the wrong wheel at the wrong
time in one of the next four road stages, we could easily end up
with Basso wearing the Yellow Jersey into Paris.
Something has to be done about the crashing. The Tour
Organization said they wanted to make the Tour closer and more
exciting but there will be no significant competition or battles for
the Yellow Jersey for no other reason than crashes taking the
competition out. We will never know how close and exciting the
battle could have been. The Tour is going to be relatively
boring concerning GC because of too many crashes. The Tour
Organization must realize that in order to decrease the potential of
this happening to the Tour again and to increase the excitement of
the Tour, something must be done about the crashing.
It turns out that the dark horses did not stampede over the top Tour
contenders. They rode by them all wounded and behind on time
because of crashes. This will instead be known as the Tour of
too many crashes. I apologize to these riders for the comments
I made concerning their fitness. I was wrong.
Tomorrow
The Valreas-Villard de Lans stage is 179 kilometers, has seven rated
climbs of which two are cat 2's and one is a cat one climb, and
there are two road primes. The first two KOM primes are at 15
and 38 kilometers and the first road prime is at 34 kilometers.
Expect to see considerable attacking since there are so few stages
left but this is also a stage with a large number of rated climbs
which should tell you that the battle for the KOM Title will
continue. The KOM contenders will try to get in the break to
increase their chances of getting most if not all of the wins for
the KOM primes.
The peloton will probably want to keep the breaks in check until the
second KOM prime which is just after the first road prime.
Then watch for a break to go up the road.
Most of the top riders on GC will want to rest their legs as much as
possible for the Alpe de Huez TT on Wednesday. They will want
to let a break go early so the peloton will settle down and they can
rest.
