Pre-season Teams Analysis | Course Analysis | Riders & Teams | Prologue | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage 4 | Stage 5 | Stage 6 | Stage 7 | Stage 8 | Rest Day & Coach's Analysis | Stage 9 | Stage 10 | Stage 11 | Stage 12 | Stage 13 | Stage 14 | Rest Day & Coach's Analysis | Stage 15 | Stage 16 | Stage 17 | Stage 18 | Stage 19 | Stage 20 | Post Tour Analysis
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Course Analysis
In this year's Tour de France, there are nine significant stages to
watch with a number of differences in structure, format, and rules
which will affect the strategy of the race. I believe there is a
strong probability that the Tour organizers have made a number of
changes in this year's Tour in order to at least give the other
riders a better chance of beating Lance Armstrong. This could have
been done for any number of reasons or combination of reasons. For
example, they could have done it to keep the race close and more
exciting longer into the race. They could have done it because they
don't want anyone to win a sixth Tour or because they don't want any
one other than a Frenchman to be first to win a sixth Tour. They
could have done it because they don't want Lance to win a sixth Tour
this year knowing that him coming back next year for a sixth Tour
win after losing a Tour will increase the interest in the Tour for
2005.
For whatever the reason, I am certain you will see that the Tour
organizers have designed this year's Tour to give Lance's
competition a better chance of beating him.
Team Time Trial
The first of these changes has to do with the team time trial rule
change. Under the old rules, a rider lost as much time on his
individual GC as his team lost in the team time trial. This
automatically eliminated quite a few of the best GC riders in the
race because their teams would lose enough time to put their top GC
riders out of contention for the Yellow Jersey. Generally, if a
rider loses five minutes or more, they are almost certainly out of
the race for the Yellow Jersey.
The new rule states that a rider cannot lose more than two and one
half minutes in the team time trial. This means that a rider can be
put into a serious time deficit but cannot be put completely out of
the race in the team time trial. Basically, what the organizers
have done is to say that we will permit your team to put some of
your competition into serious trouble for you but they will not be
permitted to put that competition completely out of the race for
you. You will have to finish the job yourself.
This is a good rule because being 2:30 down is a pretty deep hole to
dig your way out of but not an impossible hole to dig your way out
of against the best GC riders in the world. This rule will keep the
competition closer and make the racing more exciting even though it
works against Lance Armstrong who has one of the strongest teams in
the world.
Mountains
This year, there is one fewer mass start mountain stage in the Tour
but one of the two normally flat individual time trials has been
changed into a very significant mountain time trial. Therefore,
there will still be seven days of racing in the mountains.
The most significant mountain stage and most significant stage in
the Tour this year will be the individual time trial up Le Alpe de
Huez. This stage is extremely significant in a number of ways.
First, many of the top climbers and GC riders who would have lost
significant time in a flat time trial will gain significant time in
a mountain time trial. For example, if a rider would have lost four
minutes in a flat time trial and he will gain two minutes in this
mountain time trial, that is a potential time benefit of six minutes
for that rider. That rider will finish this years Tour six minutes
closer to the race leader than if this stage had remained a flat
time trial. You have to look at both the time they would have lost
and the time they will gain to see the difference such a change will
make in GC standings. The difference is cumulative.
Second, Lance Armstrong has said for years that he has placed his
training focus on attacking towards the tops of significant climbs
at the end of mountain stages to make short, quick time gains while
most of his competition has focused on making longer attacks up
climbs. This in conjunction with the fact that Lance has lost
mountain time trials in the past should tell you that this stage
along with the rule change for the team time trial were obviously
made to give Lance's competition a better chance against him.
Knowing this about Lance, if you want to design a race which will be
easier for others to beat him, what do you do? You eliminate one of
the flat time trials and replace it with an individual time trial up
the worst climb in the Tour, Le Alpe de Huez. This will remove his
team's ability to help Lance weaken and destroy his competition
before or on this climb and will maximize the time gain potential
for every rider who can beat him in the stage because of the climb's
length and difficulty.
A great example here would be Heras who normally loses at least five
minutes to Lance in just one individual flat time trial. If he can
beat Lance on this climb by just two minutes, he will be at least
seven minutes closer to Lance or even ahead of him at the start of
the flat individual time trial on the next-to-last stage.
Next, you have to understand how the mountains stages are
structured. This series of stages starts with the longest stage in
the race at 237 km (stage 10) which is also a mountain stage but it
is not a mountain top finish though it does have numerous climbs.
The obvious reason for this stage is to begin tiring climbing legs
for later climbing stages.
The first mountain stage is followed by a flat stage (stage 11)
which is meant to force the race leader's team to defend the lead in
the flats tiring the team's legs.
The next stage is the third most significant mountain stage (stage
12) in the Tour at 194 km with a mountain top finish. It is long
but there isn?t a lot of climbing until the end of the stage. This
means the race leader's team will have to defend for a long time in
the flats (two days in a row) before the two significant climbs at
the end and that significant time can be gained in this stage. The
lead could be taken in this stage by the potential race winner.
The fourth stage (stage 13) in this serious of stages is the second
most significant mountain stage with another mountain top finish
and is also the second longest stage in the Tour at 217 km with a
total of six significant climbs. This will probably be the most
difficult mountain stage in the Tour.
The 14th stage is another flat stage but is the fifth
longest stage in the Tour at 200 km. This stage is obviously
designed to tire the legs of the race leader's team. This stage
will be followed by the second rest day in the Tour.
The 15th stage of the Tour is the fourth most significant
mountain stage in the Tour. It is 179 km long with a serious of
significant climbs towards the end of the stage. This is not a
mountain top finish but the down hill following the last long climb
is short enough and is followed by a hard 200 meter climb so that,
if some one attacks at the right time on the last long climb and
holds it to the finish, they could gain significant time on this
stage. The gamble being that this kind of effort just before Le
Alpe de Huez could cause a rider to lose more time on Le Alpe de
Heuz than he will gain with the effort. But, by using the right
team leverage tactics, you can take some time out of your
competition's legs for the next day's time trial by forcing them to
chase a team mate at the end of this stage. Watch for tricks on
this type of stage.
The 16th stage is Le Alpe de Huez, the most significant
stage in the Tour, and, by this time, the riders? legs should be
getting pretty tired so that some legs could easily break with this
effort. We could see some real drama and surprises on this stage.
It should be exiting.
The 17th stage is a mountain stage and is the third
longest stage in the Tour at 212 km. There are a number of
significant climbs spread throughout the stage but unless someone's
legs break from all the climbing, this stage should not make much of
a difference in time gain. Most of what it is designed for is to
tire out legs for the individual time trial just two days later.
One of the most important things about this stage is that it is the
next-to-last stage for the King of the Mountain prize with plenty of
climbs.
The 18th stage is the shortest mountain stage at only 166
km with a number of climbs spread throughout it and it is clearly
designed to tire legs more before the flat time trial on the next
day. One of the most important things about this stage is that it
is the last stage for the King of the Mountain prize with plenty of
climbs.
Individual Time Trial
This stage will be very significant because it will be the only flat
individual time trial this year and the only chance for the top GC
riders who are very good time trialists to put away the GC riders
who are primarily climbers. This stage will probably be one of the
two or three most significant stages in the race and could possibly
be the stage in which the race winner takes the lead. I believe the
race is designed to increase the chances of this happening.
Summary
In conclusion, I believe the Tour organizers have used Lance's past
Tour performances, his comments, and, possibly, the comments and
ideas of others to design a Tour in which it will be more likely for
Lance to be beat or be his toughest Tour win ever. When I do the
teams analysis in a few weeks, you will see that this should be a
very exciting Tour and, if Lance wins it, he will definitely go out
with a really big bang. This could easily be one of the closest
Tours in history and has considerable potential for an upset of some
kind. At the very least, Lance will definitely have his work cut
out for him because the Tour organizers are determined to not just
give Lance the win for this Tour. He will have to earn this win the
hardest way possible.
See you at the Tour.
