Riders & Teams

T
D
F

2
0
0
4

Back to Main Tour Index
Go to coachcarl.com Home Page

Riders & Teams

Remember that the reason for this exercise is to teach you about bike racing and how to analyze a race. This is meant to teach you how to think a race through. Anyone can get lucky and guess who will win a race but it takes study, thought, and research to even reasonably guess the top five placings in an event. Plus it is meant for fun and to challenge you and let you see how much you really know about the sport. Enjoy.

I feel there are only five teams which present a major threat for the Yellow Jersey this year. Of course, there are a number of other teams which present a some what lesser threat and will be racing primarily for a top ten spot on GC. I will start with my top five pick for the Tour and build from there. Some of the most important information isn't who is in the Tour but who isn't in the Tour. Vinokorov and Beloki will be missed this year and that is very key to the potential out come of the race.

US Postal

Lance seems to be riding very strong except for his showing in the Dauphine which could be more for training purposes than anything else. He was surprised at how much time he lost in the hill climb TT to Mayo and Hamilton which could mean that either he is a little off form or that Mayo and Hamilton are riding significantly stronger. The latter seems to be the case with their performances this year, especially for Mayo.

One really big addition to the team is Jose Azevedo who has finished in the top five in the Tour before in spite of riding as a domestic for Beloki. With Azevedo on the team, an excellent tactic that you need to watch for would be for Lance to take the lead in either the second or third mountain stage and have Azevedo race for second place on GC in subsequent key stages. This would force the other top GC contenders to race against Azevedo for second while Lance and the rest of the team rest on their competitor's wheels. The question is whether Bruyneel will be that innovative.

One big thing that removes some pressure from Lance is that he and his team just signed a three year deal with the Discovery Channel. Of course, Lance wants to win his sixth Tour this year, but with a three year contract beginning next year, it is not as critical that he win his sixth Tour this year because he can come back next year and the two years after to achieve his goal. In other words, winning his sixth Tour this year is not a do-or-die situation because he wont be retiring for at least three more years. Psychologically, this can be very significant.

T-Mobile

My second pick is Ullrich even though he seems a little off form this year. Remember that last year, he rode himself into shape in the first part of the Tour and ended up with second. The loss of Vinokorov will hurt the team tactically and relieves some of the stress on Lance. Ullrich should be expected to be the number one competitor this year but the competition has tightened up to the point that a not-so-bad day on the wrong day could really shift things around this year.

Liberty Seguros

Heras is riding very strong recently winning a stage race in Spain with class. He is both climbing and time trialing very well. This Tour could easily have been designed with him, Mayo, and Beloki in mind. He could be Lance's worst threat on Le Alpe de Huez and, if he can hold his losses down in the last time trial, he could up set Lance. I believe Heras will do a little better than Mayo because he did much more damage to Zubeldia than Mayo did. But, one slightly off day could easily change things.

Euskaltel

Mayo has become a serious threat to Lance this year and being backed by Zubeldia will only make things worse for Lance. They are both climbing and time trialing strong enough that one good break for them or mistake by Lance could put either of them in first place. Mayo is carrying quite a bit of momentum into this year's Tour with six stage race wins including the Dauphine against Lance. He should be difficult to stop and the team leverage created by his powerful team mate, if used properly, could create an upset.

This team has quickly risen from being one of the worst teams in the Tour to being a real power. Keep an eye on it especially since this Tour was designed for riders like Mayo and Zubeldia.

Phonak

Hamilton is leading a very strong team with a team mate which should offer interesting potentials. Hamilton and Sevilla both just finished ahead of Lance in the Dauphine and are coming into the Tour with some promising momentum. If they use their team leverage right, they should make Lance earn his sixth Tour win and could upset him.

My Pick

I feel that these are the teams which will be leading the battle for the Yellow Jersey but there are some others which can add to the battle and possibly surprise everyone with an upset. Most likely, they will only be racing for a top five to ten spot. You should keep an eye on CSC with Basso, Banesto with Mancebo, Rabobank with Leipheimer, and Saeco with Simoni.

My top six pick for this year will be as follows:

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Jan Ullrich
3. Roberto Heras
4. Iban Mayo
5. Tyler Hamilton
6. Haimar Zubeldia

I believe that the last four are riding so close to each other that this group could easily shift around considerably. It should also be noted that those four have improved enough so that any one of them could have a great day and upset the Tour. This is promising to be a very good battle and I would not be surprised to see all six of them finish within a few minutes of first place. This should be a fun and interesting Tour. It should be noted that sixth place could also be taken by riders like Basso, Leipheimer, or Simoni.

There will also be other fun in the Tour with a number of teams competing for the sprints, Green Jersey, and stage wins. The best of these include teams with the best sprinters in the world like Domina Vacanze with Cipo, Fassa Bortolo with Petacchi, Fdjeux.com with Cooke and McGee, Lotto-Domo with MeEwen, T-Mobile with Zabel, and AG2R with Nazon and Kirsipuu.

Then there will be teams competing for KOM like Quick Step with Virenque and for stage wins on long break aways with teams like Credit Agricole with Hushovd. To truly enjoy the Tour, you have to watch the entire Tour.

Please note that as of the day before the Tour began, the Tour web site had not posted the official teams list with riders. One or two of these riders may not be in the Tour.

Back to Main Tour Index

Top of Page