Stage 10

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Stage 10

Limoges - Saint Flour 237 km

Analysis

The tenth stage in this year's Tour started out as expected with a huge amount of attacking. The riders realized that there was a good chance the break would stay off to win the stage and really went for the break. Break after break went with there being as many as a dozen or more riders in the breaks on a number of occasions. But, also as expected, the peloton kept the breaks in check until after the first road prime and first KOM prime. Then they let Virenque and Merckx go up the road.

Both were really low on GC so they could gain a lot of time before they became a threat to anyone. They did just like I taught you and worked to gain as much time as possible as quickly as possible to increase their chances of winning the stage. At one point, their lead grew to 10' 50" before the chase to bring the break back in really began. Late in the stage, Virenque dropped Merckx on a climb and soloed for the win.

Helping this was the fact that most of the sprinters and leaders for the Points Title were dropped on the larger climbs, especially the cat one climb, so there was no need for most sprinter teams to bring the break back in. Also, Virenque was on the same team as Bettini and he was taking all the KOM primes so that QSD would retain the lead for the KOM Title.

The most significant changes to the titles include that Virenque moved up to fourth on individual GC while Backstedt dropped out of the top ten and there was some minor shuffling below Armstrong but none of the top GC contenders lost any significant time. For the Points Title, Zabel moved up past Hushovd and O'Grady because he stayed with the first pack and got in the top placings. This was an excellent performance for a sprinter. The KOM Title had the most significant reshuffling with only Bettini remaining in the top five by the end of the day. Even he dropped to third behind Virenque and Merckx respectively. Moreau moved into fourth and Mancebo moved into fifth so that Quickstep now has 1st, 3rd, and 5th for the KOM Title. This title will change even more over the next nine days and the KOM Title will be one of the hottest battles until then. In the White Jersey, Voeckler and Casar kept first and second respectively while Scarponi, Chavanel, and Pineau moved into third, fourth, and fifth respectively.

I hope you are keeping track of the riders who drop out of the Tour because this will begin to show up as decreasing team strength. We saw a case at the end of the Tour last year where Hamilton took advantage of a team only having a few riders left to take a stage win and move up on GC. They didn't have enough riders to bring him back in and no one else cared. Smaller and weaker teams create opportunity. There are now only 170 riders left in the Tour.

Did you notice that Marichal took the third place points for the second road prime to keep Zabel and O'Grady from taking those points and gaining even more on McEwen for the Points Title? Team work works.

Tomorrow

The Saint Flour-Figeac stage is only 164 kilometers long and is rated as a flat stage even though it has a cat 2 climb. With a stage that is this hilly and short, there is an increased possibility that the break will stay off to win. This will be especially true if enough of the sprinters get shelled out the back on the cat 2 climb late in the stage and can't get back to the peloton. There are five categorized climbs and only two road primes.

Again, tomorrow, there should be a huge amount of attacking especially since the top GC riders are going to want to rest their legs with the next two days in the mountains having mountain top finishes. I expect the peloton to keep the breaks in until the first KOM prime which is only 6.5 km into the stage. Don't be surprised to see Bettini and Voigt fighting very hard to make the break tomorrow. Bettini should be expected to attempt to regain the KOM Jersey or at least move back ahead of Merckx giving Quickstep the first two places.

I would not be surprised to see O'Grady and possibly even Zabel try for the break tomorrow in an effort the get the stage win (the closing kilometers are mostly down hill) and gain more points against McEwen. If they make the break, they could take the lead for the Points Jersey. It is an excellent opportunity since McEwen doesn't climb very well.

Tomorrow should be another really fun stage with plenty of action. The Tour just keeps getting better. Enjoy.

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