Stage 11

T
D
F

2
0
0
4

Back to Main Tour Index
Go to coachcarl.com Home Page

Stage 11

Saint Flour - Figeac 164 km

At the beginning of today's stage, there was a huge amount of attacking with riders like Voigt, Halgand, and Flecha trying to get into numerous breaks. Here is a great example of why I am trying to teach you to read and anticipate the tactics of others. Voigt has been trying for days to get into a break but has failed. He almost always is in the last one or two breaks before the final break goes. If he would read and anticipate that the teams are going to hold the breaks back until after a certain prime, he could position for that prime and attack just after the front of the peloton crosses that prime line. This would almost certainly guarantee him a spot in the break.

Another thing here is that, if you think they will let the break go after the first prime and they keep chasing the breaks in, then you have to read that and figure out when they will let the break go. Have you noticed a trend here, yet? They are letting the break go after the last prime within 40 kilometers of the stage start. Therefore, you should plan your attacks for that prime and you will be able to make most breaks. Think before you leap off the front of the peloton.

Also, note that they let riders go up the road who are really down on GC. They are usually over ten minutes down. If you don't make the break today and you are not riding for a spot on GC, how do you increase your potential for making the break tomorrow? You wait until about the last third of the race, slide out the back of the peloton in a small group, and lose about three to five minutes on GC so that you are no longer a threat to anyone on GC. PLUS, going that much slower during the last third of the race when the peloton is winding up for the sprint will help you save energy increasing your chances of staying away on a break and winning the stage. This is a sport for thinking people and not for stupid people. It is bike chess and you have to see moves ahead just like in regular chess.

At the start of the stage, the attacking and chasing was so fast that the peloton split in two on the first cat 4 climb. They kept pulling the breaks back in until after the second KOM prime at 48.5 which is about the furthest into a stage they have kept breaks from getting away. Then they let two riders go and a third bridged to the break. The break quickly opened enough ground to make sure they were not caught and waited late into the stage before they began racing against each other. Some of the breaks that failed did so because the riders began racing against each other too soon.

Did any one notice the cows blocking for the break? :-) That is a new tactic on me. I have never seen that one. They didnt' say which jerseys the cows were wearing so we don't know which team they were on. They gave the break a full minute of extra time. I assume that since there were two Spaniards in the break that it must have been Euskaltel or Fassa. Either that or Team Toro Grande. Notice that the cows waited until after the break had gone by to take control of the road. :-) A little lesson here is that, if you see something like that coming up, attack because the peloton will probably get slowed down by it.

Interestingly, this is probably the first stage this year in which none of the standings were changed in the top five to ten. It was just a good fun race with a well done break and a little bovine adventure. :-) It was the cow's stage. Yeah, that's it. When they said there were cows in the road, at first, I thought it was the feed zone. Got milk?

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's stage from Castelsarrasin to La Mongie is 197.5 kilometers and is the third most significant stage in the Tour. It only has two rated climbs but they are both category one climbs at the end of the stage with the stage finishing on top of the second climb. There will be only two road primes with the first 21.5 kilometers into the stage and the other one at 153.5 kilometers. Most likely, the stage will start with a lot of attacking and they will let the control break go after the first road prime in order to settle the peloton down.

Tomorrow's stage will be the first of two consecutive mountain top finishes and will really sort out the top GC and White Jersey standings. US Postal has traditionally taken control of the peloton in these stages and ground out most riders on the largest climbs. We will see very soon if they have changed their tactics at all. I expect this to be a good race for GC but the next day's stage will be even better because the stage finishes on top of an HC climb.

If I were trying to win the stage with a long break, I would plan on attacking following the first road prime, gaining at least ten minutes before the bottom of the first climb, limit the damage the peloton will do to me on that climb to less than five minutes, and then limit the damage they will do to me on the last climb to less than five minutes. That should give you the stage win as long as your break companions don't beat you.

Some of the things you have to understand about the situation Mayo and Zubeldia are in with them having lost over five minutes and being two of the strongest GC riders in the Tour is that them being put out of contention for first place is not the only benefit Armstrong will get from their unfortunate situation. He also has the potential for this to be a very powerful tactical tool to use against his competition especially with him ahead of his competition on GC. Lance should not only permit either or both of these riders to go up the road to attempt to regain their lost time in the key mountain stages, he should want them to make this effort and gain significant ground.

What will happen is that Lance will want them to gain up to at least three minutes on him and the others as quickly as possible but not more than four minutes. What this does is that it puts all of his competitors in danger of being passed on GC before Lance will be in danger of being passed on GC. This will force Armstrong's competitors to chase long before Lance has to so that Lance will be able to rest on his competitor's wheels while his competitors chase the break.

A third factor to their situation is that now Lance doesn't have to ride fast and hard enough to stay with Mayo and Zubeldia in order to defend against their attacks. He only has to ride hard enough to keep them from passing him on GC permitting Lance to defend against their attacks by riding much slower and can now save a lot of energy to be used against his other competition. This is also true for the other top GC riders like Hamilton, Ullrich, and Heras. They should all permit Mayo and Zubeldia to go at least three to four minutes up the road (Heras less because he is further down on GC) to conserve their own energy while Mayo and Zubeldia work hard and use energy to catch up.

Mayo and Zubeldia also know this and will use it to attempt to get back into the race. If they use the right tactics, they could easily make up as much as four to five minutes before the top GC contenders ride to stop them. This means they could get back to almost where they would have been without the crash but it will cost them dearly in effort and energy and may cause them to lose time in the Alpe de Huez TT especially if they use bad tactics. But, by the end of the Tour, they could be almost where they would have been in relation to the other top GC riders less a few minutes. They can make it back to the top five or six on GC.

The strategy here is to gain at least 3.5 to 4 minutes in the next two stages and close the rest of that gap on Alpe de Huez. They can do this with several tactics. First, you have to understand that a great climber like Mayo or Zubeldia will gain the most time on the HC climb because it is tougher and Mayo has been riding stronger than Zubeldia. You don't want them to both ride both stages hard because tired legs wont gain much time on an HC climb. One tactic you might want to watch for would be Euskaltel sending Zubeldia up the road tomorrow gaining as much time as possible forcing the others to chase while Mayo rests on their wheels. Then on Saturday, send Mayo up the road against tired legs to gain the maximum time possible. Next they both try to close the rest of the ground on Alpe de Huez.

Tomorrow will be fun and interesting, again. :-) Maybe the Euskaltel cows will be on the road again. :-) Let's hear it for Team Toro Grande! Great blocking, guys. :-)

Back to Main Tour Index

Top of Page