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Stage 16
Alpe de Huez TT 15 km
Analysis
Today was the most significant stage in the Tour and Lance locked up
the win unless he has a really bad day for the flat time trial or
gets hurt in a crash. He is only 3' 48" ahead of Basso but
Basso has traditionally lost from three to over four minutes to
Lance in the flat time trials.
I don't know how well Kloden time trials because he wasn't
considered a top GC contender before the others crashed out and I
didn't research him. If he just does well, he could pass Basso
in the individual TT. Kloden is over five minutes behind Lance
which puts him out of contention for first. You have to also
remember that Kloden is riding for Ullrich. You might ask why
is Kloden still riding for Ullrich when he is ahead of Ullrich on
GC? It is very common in upper level pro racing, in order to
get a team leader like Ullrich, his contract will be written stating
that he will be team leader even if he is passed on GC by a team
mate. That is probably the case here.
On the other hand, Ullrich is a great time trialist and he could win
this TT taking enough time out of Basso to pass him on GC so that
Ullrich could move up to either second or third on GC depending on
how well Kloden time trials. Ullrich is almost 8 minutes down
on GC and is, therefore, out of contention for the win but he is a
little over four minutes out of second which he can gain on Basso in
either mountain stages and/or the TT. Watch for this race to
happen.
There will probably be some continuing battles for top tens spots as
the race comes to a close. From about fifth down, there are a
number of riders who are close enough that a battle could develop
for a spot.
Tomorrow
The Bourg D'Oisans-Le Grand Bornand stage is 212 kilometers with
five rated climbs. The two largest climbs top at 36 and 86 km
with the three smaller climbs towards the end of the race.
Expect USP to use its standard towing-everyone-around-France
strategy to control the stage. There will probably be a KOM/stage
win break established on the first climb. I don't know if
Ullrich will fight hard to move up on GC to second place or not.
If he does, expect some kind of attack or break action from him some
time tomorrow and he could even try to make his move on the first
climb. There are two basic strategies he could use. He
could try to make his break on the first two large climbs of the
tour by making a strong break go up the road or he could do a late
stage move to gain some time quickly to increase his chances of
passing Basso.
