Stage 2

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Stage 2

Day 3 - Charleroi ? Namur

Stage Analysis

The stage started very much as predicted. The first attack came early at the 2 km mark and the break was quickly pulled back in because Quickstep wanted to get Bettini one of the two KOM primes as a buffer to protect his lead in the KOM jersey before letting the break go. Shortly after the first KOM prime, there was another attack by six riders who were quickly let go. A group of three tried to bridge but they started loosing ground and quit the pursuit to save energy for another day like I explained yesterday.

None of the riders in the break were high on any of the standings so they were let go. You can bet that the first thing all the coaches did was grab their standings sheets to see if any of the riders in the break were a threat to their team in any way. When they saw there was no threat, they got word to their teams to let the break go. The break quickly opened a five minute lead.

Note that the riders in the break worked very hard to gain all the ground they could as quickly as possible and were, therefore, opening ground on the smaller chase break forcing them to quit. These pro's know that the more ground they open at the start of a break, the better chances the break has of staying off to win just like I teach in my ebook. But better chances don't guarantee the win, they just increase the chances of a win.

After the first road prime, the peloton started working the break back in as I said they would but CA didn?t want the break back in before the last road prime because no one in the break was a threat on GC and they didn?t want Hushovd to have to compete in the road primes before trying to win the stage like he did yesterday. Therefore, they kept the break out until after the last road prime giving Hushovd fresher legs for the final sprint. Again, energy conservation is the rule. I call it bike chess for a reason.

Have you noticed how many teams have one or more road sprinters this year? There is a huge number of them. They are paying a few riders a lot of money to try and win one or more stages showing just how important those stage wins are. Therefore, you should expect more teams to want the breaks to not get caught until after the road primes have been passed to keep their sprinters? legs fresh for the stage sprint. There has to be at least 15 to 20 top road sprinters in the Tour this year which could be a record.

Please notice how the teams keep moving into action for reasons and not just to ?take their turn at the front? or impress their girl friends. :) There is a reason and purpose for everything these pro teams do and there should be reason and purpose for everything you do in a race or even in just a recreational ride, whether training or racing/recreating. They may not always be right and they don't always succeed but these team efforts do considerably increase their chances of success just like I teach in my book.

Also notice how the top GC teams keep moving their top riders to the front of the peloton when things get moving inside the peloton increasing the chances for a crash. They know that the more riders you have in front of you, the more likely you are to have riders crash in front of you taking you down. There were a number of times in today's and yesterday's stages that the top GC teams moved their leaders to the front such as when it started raining. Your leader can?t win if he gets hurt.

Tomorrow

The Waterloo ? Wasquehal stage is 210 km long and is very flat. There are only two climbs, a cat 4 climb at 14 km and a cat 3 climb at 61 km. There are three road primes at 42 km, 72.5 km, and 176.5 km.

You should expect more early attacks. If a break doesn?t get off without any threats to any one before the first KOM prime, expect Quickstep to take control of the race to protect Bettini's lead for KOM just like they did today and Cofidis will probably attempt to get those six points to move Tombak into a tie or lead for KOM just like they tried to do today. That could be the first battle of the stage.

If the break has no one who is a threat on GC, you can expect teams like CA to try to keep them off until after the last road prime to save their sprinters for the stage win while some other teams may want to force the race for the road primes. Tomorrow's break should be up the road before the first road prime.

It is a shame the Tour organization has dropped keeping track of the points for the Combativity Title because it was always so hotly contested and added color to the flatter stages. It was probably the most fun title to follow in the flatter stages. I hope they will bring it back for next year.

Note that we are only two days from the team time trial which will be the first sort for the GC riders. Expect a little harder racing tomorrow for a stage win because most teams and riders trying to do well on GC will not want any of their riders to get tired with a break effort the day before the TTT. They will want to start the TTT with the freshest possible legs. Tomorrow should be fun and would be more fun with the Combativity Title ? hint, hint. :)

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