Stage 3

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Stage 3

Day 4 - Waterloo ? Wasquehal 210 km

Race Analysis

As predicted, the attacking started very early and CA permitted the first attack to be the control break which would stay of for most of the stage.

At this point, I need to make clear there is a reason for me confirming my predictions when they come true. I have noticed a considerable number of people including at least one European based coach who believe and state that you cannot reasonably predict the tactics of other coaches much less the out come of a bike race. I am trying to confirm and stress that they are wrong and that, with enough knowledge about the sport and information about the race, riders, and coaches, you can reasonably predict the tactics that will be used in any race.

I hope you have all noticed by now that, if you know anywhere as much about bike racing as I teach on this site and in my book and you have even the limited information provided on a few web sites about the race and riders, you can predict what riders and teams will do with reasonable effectiveness. That is also why I encourage you to make predictions about who you think will finish in the top five and set an example for you by making my top five pick. Even without having ever been to Europe or the Tour and not being around the riders and coaches to talk to them, I can make reasonable predictions concerning their tactics and the end results of the Tour. I have learned from experience that, with what I know about bike racing and the limited information I have about the riders, being able to predict the tactics and results at better than 50% is better than even most cycling coaches can do. If you can get close to that, you are doing well.

Understanding this will make it more enjoyable to watch bikes races because you will be better able to read the action during the race and understand what they are trying to achieve. It is even more important that you as a rider or coach learn to do these things because, if you can reasonably predict the tactics of other teams, you are more likely to develop tactics to either counter their tactics or use their tactics to beat them. If you don't learn to predict your competitions? tactics with at least reasonable effectiveness, they are going to hand your butt to you at every bike race.

Therefore, when I say, ?as predicted? or ?as I predicted?, I am trying to drive home the fact that bike racing can be reasonably predicted and you can see moves ahead in this game of bike chess just like you can see moves ahead in regular chess. With the right knowledge and information, you too can learn to make reasonably accurate predictions in bike racing and then take advantage of those predictions.

Now, back to the race. CA immediately took control of the peloton and, if you looked at your standings, you would know why. Neither Voigt or De Groot were a threat to any one on any thing. De Groot was not even in the top five or ten on any standing and Voigt was too far down on GC and Points to be an immediate threat to Hushovd, he was too far down to be an immediate threat to Bettini for KOM, and he is too old to be a threat to Cancellara for the White Jersey. This was a great control break to settle the pack down and, as predicted, the veterans Voigt and De Groot opened as much ground as possible as quickly as possible taking advantage of what they knew would probably happen. At one time, they had over six minutes on the pack. You can bet THEY predicted in advance that, if they got off, they would be permitted to open so much ground and have a better chance to win the stage.

Also, remember what I told you to keep an eye on how these veteran pro's will work hard one day, rest one or two days, and work hard again for energy conservation. Two days ago, Voigt was in the controlling break, he rested yesterday, and was in the break again today. It works.

If you look at the current standings, you will notice that Voigt has moved up to where he is only 9 seconds out of first place on GC and only 10 points out of first for KOM. If tomorrow were another flat stage, Voigt knows they would not be as willing to let him off in another break anyway, so you might as well rest, let the other gain a little time or points so you will be more likely to get off in a break a day or two later, and try to capture a stage win or sub title that day. don't waste energy with stupid moves in stage races.

Did you notice the fact that only having two riders in the break only shut down the attacking but did not completely eliminate the sprinting for the primes. The sprinting for the primes was diminished but not completely eliminated. You did see the leaders for the different classifications going for the points awarded to third and fourth places to pad their leads a little AND keep the others from gaining on them.

In today's stage, the thing I have told you to watch for the most in flat stages happened. That is for the top GC contenders to not lose significant time in flat stages. A panic was created at the front of the peloton over the fear of crashing on the cobbles. The panic resulted in a crash which caused a split in the peloton causing some of the best GC riders in the peloton, Mayo and Zubeldia, to lose almost four minutes today virtually putting them out of a chance to win the Tour. The best they can hope for now is a top three to five finish or to go after the KOM Title or mountain stage wins.

Please notice that it was the panic created by the fear that caused the crash which caused the peloton split and top riders to lose ground. There was not one crash on the cobbles which caused this to happen. Therefore, the panic caused by the fear of the cobbles was more dangerous than the cobbles themselves. don't become so paranoid about crashing that you cause a crash and watch for others who do become that paranoid. It is not a good thing.

I hope you also noticed that the other teams jumped on the opportunity to put Mayo and Zubeldia out of a chance to win the Tour. There was none of the chivalry you saw when Lanced crashed in the mountains last year. This is probably due mostly to two things. First, Lance was the defending champion when he crashed and it may not be acceptable to take advantage of the defending champion crashing to put him out of the race, if he quickly remounts. The rest of you are screwed when you crash. :) don't expect mercy unless it is given.

Second, if you look closely at the footage of Lance crashing, you will see a hand with a yellow strap suddenly appear at handlebar level causing the strap to catch Lance's right brake lever and then very quickly pull back in turning Lance's handle bars. It is very possible that this was an intentional grounding by an over zealous fan that the other riders saw and refused to take advantage of. In other words, if Lance had not been intentionally crashed, they may have just left his butt in the dirt and screwed chivalry. :)

Another thing you need to know about concerning this is that the history of the Tour is replete with incidents of over zealous fans trying to stop some one from winning the Tour and not all of them have been French fans. It is very possible that some French fan did not want to see an American win five Tours and we may see others do stupid stuff this year who don't want to see an American be the first to win six Tours. Just be aware of it.

So the really big news of the day is that Mayo and Zubeldia got screwed big time by a crash caused by panic and paranoia. That is a shame but, unfortunately, it is bike racing. What this does mean is that the other teams will permit both of them to get up to three minutes up the road in the mountain stages before they will give serious pursuit making it easier for them to move back up on GC to, possibly, a top three to five spot.

When things go bad like this, you have to look for what ever opportunity is left and race for it. You can best do this by predicting the actions of the other riders and teams. You can?t just quit. You still have to give them your best bike race, you just have to change your strategy.

But they were not the only ones hurt by this irrational behavior. Hushovd lost the Yellow Jersey and the Green Jersey costing him untold thousands of dollars.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow is the first sorting of the team leaders by design. Today was the first sorting by accident. The Cambrai ? Arras 64.5 km Team Time Trial will be tomorrow. Here again, the main thing to watch is which teams will cause top GC contenders to lose time and how much time will they lose. Watch teams like US Postal, T-Mobile, Phonak, CSC, Illes Balears, Rabobank, and SAECO. Euskaltel can?t afford to lose much more time. They really have to ride their butts off tomorrow just for damage control.

Wow, what a Tour already. It should get better. I just regret that two of the best combatants are already out of the fight for first. It would have definitely made the race more interesting. Enjoy.

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