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Stage 9
St Leonard de Noblat - Gueret 160.5 km
Before we get into the stage analysis, there is a matter I need to
address concerning the new team time trial rule. I just
received an email from some one who is furious about this rule and
could not resist ranting to me about the rule and my support of the
rule but was not brave
enough to include his name and email address for an intelligent
response.
The first thing is that I am not the person or group of persons who
obvious designed the Tour this year to make it more difficult for
Lance to win his sixth Tour. Second, in their efforts to
decrease Lance's chance to win, they actually made a good rule for
everyone when they made the new time trial rule. There is a
group of Americans out there who are furious about this rule and you
should not be. The shoe could just as easily be on the other
foot. What if these sports hating people who put pressure on
US Postal to drop their sponsorship for Lance and his team beginning
next year had successfully pressured USP to drop that sponsorship
this year and Lance's team couldn't get replacement sponsorship?
He could just as easily have ended up trying for his sixth Tour win
on a pro team that would have lost him five or more minutes in the
team time trial putting him out of any hope of a bid for a sixth
Tour win this year.
Lance is very fortunate to be on the most powerful time trial team
in the world and I had intended to address the fact that a lot of
his winning the last five Tours goes to the fact that his team has
done a lot of the winning. There is a thing, I discuss in my
ebook, called the battle of the domestiques which almost always
determines who will win a race. If your domestiques win this
battle, they have broken the domestiques for the other teams and
their victory forces the other team leaders to race against them
while you rest on their wheels. Your domestiques soften up the
other team leaders for you so that you can jump into the battle
against tired legs with your fresh legs greatly increasing your chances
of winning.
This is exactly what US Postal has done for Lance for the last five
years. If you read back through the news flashes on the TDF
site, you will see USP hammering away the other domestiques
stripping them away from protecting their team leaders so they can
get to those team leaders and hammer on them for a while before
Lance starts his dance up the mountain. This is why bike
racing is a team sport and it is a very important part of bike racing.
But that is very different from your team being so weak in one stage
like the team time trial that your team completely takes away any
chance of you winning the Tour. At least, when your team loses
the battle of the domestiques, you can fight on with the hope of
defeating the other domestiques and still have a chance that, though
remote, with the right tactics and superior fitness, you can still
beat their team leader. When your team loses the TTT, you
don't have that chance.
I know that everyone of you who hate this new TTT rule now would
love the same rule if Lance had been forced to a weaker TTT team or
if you or a friend of yours found yourselves riding the Tour on a
weaker TTT team with no hope at winning for NO other reason than
your team mates are not good enough at the TTT to keep you in
contention. You would be be on your knees praising God for
such a rule while the fans from other countries would be complaining
about this same rule giving YOU a chance to win the Tour.
The reason I support this rule is because it protects every one from
being penalized completely out of contention by being on a weaker
TTT team. If Lance had been forced to race for his sixth win
on a different and weaker TTT team, you people who are now mad would
be very glad with this rule. With this rule, he would still
have a chance to win but he would first have to dig his way out of a
really deep hole with a three minute loss BUT it would only be a
three minute loss and not five or six minutes.
The most important thing about this rule is that, hopefully, it will
be around after Lance's team is through dominating the Tour TTT and
the next American or any contending rider from any team will be on a
weaker team but wont be completely eliminated from the race because
of the TTT. That racer could be you, your friend, your son, or
a former club mate of yours and, I guarantee, you will then love the
rule that will provide him with at least a little protection from
being completely eliminated in the TTT.
Don't be hypocrites, support the rule. It is a great rule that
levels the playing field for everyone and protects every rider from
being completely eliminated by the TTT. It protects Lance just
as much as it protects anyone else because Lance's team could have
any number of difficulties between now and next year which would
greatly weaken the team in the TTT. THAT is why I support the
new TTT rule.
After all, if I wanted to design a Tour that would make it even more
difficult for Lance to win with him being on the strongest TTT team
in the world, I would just completely take the TTT back out of the
Tour. It doesn't have to be there. Lance is fortunate
and I am surprised that the TTT is even in the Tour this year and
that his team can put any time into his competition for him.
Analysis
Today's stage started out very much as expected with a lot of
attacking. Probably the most in this Tour because they are
running out of flat stages for these riders to win. Voigt and
a number of other expected riders kept trying to make the break but
the breaks were kept in check until the first KOM prime and first
road prime. Following this first road prime, two riders were
let go up the road and all bridge attempts were stopped until the
two rider break was over one minute ahead of the peloton. At
that time, they let one rider go up the road who failed to catch the
break and finally just stopped and waited for the peloton.
It is interesting that three strong climbers including Virenque,
Mayo, and Galdeano took the first KOM prime today. This could
mean they are getting ready to begin chasing the KOM Jersey tomorrow
in the first mountain stage. Does this mean that Mayo has
given up on trying for a top five finish or will he try to get back
into the top five by also riding for KOM points in long breaks
during the mountain stages?
As expected, the control break almost stayed off to win the stage.
It was caught in the last 50 meters. Notice what I told you
about having at least 15 seconds with 1 km to go or you will be
caught by the bunch sprint. They had 15 seconds and were
caught only 50 meters from the line. They needed another five
to 10 seconds at 1 km to win the stage. One more rider or just
a tiny bit faster over the last 50 km would have won the stage.
Note that they also did as I teach and quickly opened the lead to
over 10 minutes at the start of their break.
The only significant change on the standings today was that Hushovd
moved up from fourth on the Points Title to second ahead of O'Grady.
Did you notice McEwen take the third place points for the second
road prime and that O'Grady's team mate, Casper, sprinted ahead to
take those points for the third road prime protecting O'Grady like I
told you to do. You have to learn from the pro's to be as good
as the pro's.
Tomorrow
The Limoges-Saint Flour stage is the first mountain stage in this
Tour and is the longest stage in this Tour at 237 km. There
will be 8 KOM primes of which there will be one cat one prime, and
two cat two primes with the first cat 4 prime at 39.5 km.
There will only be two road primes at 32.5 and 105.5 km. Of course,
expect the breaks to be kept in check until the first road prime and
first KOM prime. After that a controlling break will be let go
up the road which will include riders going for the KOM Title and a
mountain stage win.
It will provide a major sorting on all classifications. The
riders who can't climb will drop out of most standings (except for
the Points Title) and the climbers will begin replacing them.
This will be especially true for both the Yellow and White Jerseys.
Tomorrow you will see the more true picture begin to develop
concerning the soon coming battle for the Tour win. The top GC
riders will begin to collect at the top of the standings with fewer
riders mixed in between them. Notice that the non-climbers
will collect in small survival packs behind the main peloton trying
to make cut off so they can try to keep their leads for the Points
Title or win flat stages later. O'Grady can climb well enough
that you may see him try to make the break tomorrow to pick up the
road prime points and maybe win the stage to regain the lead for the
Points Title.
After tomorrow, we will have a much better picture of who to watch
for the coming mountain top battles coming this Thursday and Friday.
Things will just keep getting better.
