Pre-season Teams Analysis

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Pre-season Teams Analysis

This preseason teams analysis is meant to provide you with a better understanding of team structuring and give you some things to watch for the next few months of this season. You need to watch for developing strengths and weaknesses.

Postal

Lance Armstrong has been stating that he is back to form and riding stronger than last year proving that he was off form, probably from overtraining and not from increasing age as rumored last year. Common sense should tell you that, if his lack of form last year was caused by aging, as stated following the Tour, he could only be in worse form this year since he would be older. Since he is now in better form, his lack of form had to be caused by overtraining. If he maintains this improved form through the Tour this year, he will be the hands-on-favorite to win the 2004 Tour de France.

Powerful domestique, Heras, has left the team but Spanish pro, Azevedo, has been added to the team. Azevedo makes the team even stronger and increases its tactical potential in several ways. Heras was one of the top climbers in the world but his weaknesses was time trialing. Azevedo is one of the top climbers and top time trailists in the world which should increase Postal's team time trialing ability meaning that it is more likely that Postal will help Armstrong more by increasing their time gain in the team time trial.

The second way that Azevedo improves Postal is that he has proved he can be a top five GC rider providing Postal increased team leverage opportunities. The other teams will be forced to cover any moves made by Azevedo providing Postal with what is possibly the most powerful 1-2 punch since Hinault/LeMond.

Last year, we saw Postal evolve from their normal team strategy at the start of the mountains to the strategy I said they should have started with. Adding Azevedo restructures the team at the top end more for the type of team leverage tactics I have said they should use which will take some of the pressure off of Armstrong and increases his chances of winning his sixth Tour.

T-Mobile

Ullrich has returned to a restructured T-Mobile team. The team is already working on their team time trialing showing the significance of the team time trial I have been stating for years. Ullrich is also backed by two of the best GC riders in the Tour, Botero and Vinokurov, providing him with considerable team strength and team leverage with a potential triple punch or attack. This will probably be the greatest threat Armstrong will face in the Tour this year.

Liberty

With a few acceptions, Liberty is ONCE reborn. They should still be one of the best pro teams in the world and a force in the team time trial. They lost Beloki but picked up Heras and Galdeano should be back in the Tour this year. Coach Saiz is the key to this team. He is probably the best developmental coach in the world for the Tour de France because he has consistently produced top ten riders in the Tour having as many as three to four riders finish the Tour in the top ten in one year. He is excellent at developing the climbing, time trailing, and team time trialing required to win the Tour. If he does as well with Heras this year as he has with most other riders, Heras could easily become one of the most lethal Tour riders in the world with an improved time trialing ability. Keep an eye on this. The Liberty Team could have the second strongest 1-2 punch in the Tour this year with both Heras and Galdeano and it being very likely that there will be one or more other team riders finishing in the top ten.

Remember that, last year, Saiz was effectively using the team leverage tactics I teach when Beloki crashed out of the race. You can bet he will be a strategic force this year also.

Euskaltel

Last year, Euskaltel proved itself to be one of the most improved Tour teams in recent history. They made significant improvements in time trialing, team time trialing, and climbing. If they improve as much this year as they did last year, they could be a serious threat this year. They have a very powerful 1-2 punch with Zubeldia and Mayo. The team's greatest weakness has been time trialing but they have been improving.

La Boulangere

The addition of Beloki has made the La Boulangere Team a contender for this year's Tour but there are some serious questions which need to be answered. First, how well will the team do in the team time trial and is Beloki going to be back up to form by this year's Tour? If the team loses Beloki too much time in the team time trial, he wont be a threat this year. We need to watch and see how strong his team rides this year. Second, Beloki didn?t get to start training following his injury until early December last year. The big question is how much form will he regain by this year's Tour?

Phonak

The addition of Hamilton has made the Phonak Team a contender for this year's Tour but, again, there are some unknowns. How well will this team perform in the team time trial and how well will the team be able to otherwise support Hamilton? We have to keep an eye on how strong the Phonak Team rides this year.

Rabobank

The previously improving Leipheimer requires that we keep an eye on the Rabobank Team for the next few months. Will he continue to improve and be more of a contender and will his team be able to provide him with the support required to be a contender, especially in the team time trial?

Banesto

We also need to watch the significantly improved Mancebo. He could easily pose a threat in any year for which he makes adequate progress. Again, properly developed bicycle road racing is a team sport so we also have to see how strong his team remains as he develops.

Summary

I believe that these are the most significant teams to watch concerning the Tour this year but there are other teams which could make a jump in performance in just one year with good coaching. Keep one eye open for surprise performances from other teams to keep from being taken by surprise. For example, Riis has shown he is an outstanding coach and can quickly build a strong Tour team. Keep an eye on this great coach.

There will be a pre Tour teams analysis just a few days before the Tour de France starts, as always. The racing just seems to get better, doesn?t it? :)

Comments? I'd like to hear from you,

Coach Carl Cantrell
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