Rest Day & Coach's Analysis
Situational Analysis
First, we have to look at what has happened and then what will
probably happen. We saw Lance dominate the first time trial
over the other GC riders by enough that, if he holds even in the
mountains, he can win the race in the last time trial, of course,
pending team tactics and if any of the other riders improve time
trialing form by then. We saw Discovery barely beat CSC in the
team time trial and become so over confident that they ignored my
warnings about defending the Yellow Jersey too long. A few
days ago, we watched as the invincible Discovery machine folded from
towing the peloton too many days with still more than two thirds of
the race left. Basically, they paid for their arrogance and
were forced to make the next move, a tactical retreat.
I have taught you riders for years that every rider only has so many
hard pedal strokes they can make on the front of the peloton within
any given time period such as the Tour de France. If you waste
those pedal strokes in one place, you won't have them when you need
them to win or save your butt in another place. Therefore,
bicycle road racing is energy efficiency. You would think
that, with Bruyneel and Carmichael broken Lance and the team at
least four or five times in the last six years, they would have
learned this lesson. They refuse to learn the lesson so they
keep having to live through it again and again. From what I
have seen this year, I believe that Lance and company could race the
Tour six more times and still not learn this lesson.
I clearly stated on this site in my course analysis that, if
Discovery started towing this peloton before stage 15, they would
break and get beaten because of the race structure. They
started towing the peloton after stage four and thought they could
tow all the way to Paris after the their team having been broken in
at least two or three previous Tours? I think that most of you
are smarter than that.
It is as if they have been reading my site and are trying to prove
me wrong by riding stupid. Instead, they have proved me
consistently right through the past six years by struggling to save
their butts time after time. The only reason Lance has won the
last six Tours is because of a combination of Lance's tenacity and
the tactical stupidity of their competition. I have been
telling you for years that the way to beat Lance is to put together
three or more strong riders to attack him repeatedly for days to
break him, after his team is broken. That is the most
fundamental principle of team tactics for bicycle racing.
Yesterday, I saw a brief interview with Hinault where he said
exactly that.
The big problem is that the other teams have been able to break
Lance's team at least three or four times and have never succeeded
in breaking Lance because they don't have the strategic and tactical
discipline to force him to chase his competiton after his team is
broken. Like fools, as soon as Lance's team is broken, they
start racing against each other before Lance is broken and Lance can
play that game all day long. If they don't learn to beat Lance
before they go after each other, they CANNOT beat Lance.
If Lance and company think they can prove me wrong in my course and
strategy analyses (they just proved me right again), they need to
know they can't because everything I teach is based on rules and
fundamentals I learned by studying the greats of cycling like Coppi,
Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Van Looy, Kelly, and others. I
noticed decades ago that, if riders stuck to certain principles and
rules, they consistently won and, if they deviated from those
principles and rules, they consistently lost. The principles
and rules I teach about cycling and everything else I teach on this
site and in my book is based on, have been proven with over 150
years of cycling. I found that, as long as I stick to those
rules and principles, I can't be wrong and I want to thank Bruyneel
and Carmichael for proving me right again and again.
In yesterday's stage, I saw Discovery controlling the stage with
tired legs and noticed that Voigt went up the road on break without
Discovery trying to bring him back in until late in the stage.
When Discovery did start chasing, they brought the time back down to
about 3 minutes and then let it fluctuate at 3 minutes without
bringing in more time. Lance was doing a tactical retreat and
giving away the Yellow Jersey to buy some peace and time for his
team before it was completely shredded. He let CSC have the
lead and be forced to defend the peloton so his riders can rest and
get their legs back enough to help him later in the race.
When will or should he make his move to regain the lead? He
would be foolish to regain it tomorrow and I think he knows it.
It would be best if he just rode damage control to keep his time
within about one minute of the GC leader while permitting his team
to rest until at least stage 15 and possibly the time trial.
Waiting until the time trial is too risky and putting all of your
eggs in one basket so I would expect him to try to regain the lead
in stage 15 which is the most significant mountain stage in this
Tour.
Now for the threat analysis. Lancing is committing two sports
sins which have put him in this trouble in the first place and can
cause him to lose the Tour. First, he is determined to just
ride this Tour "for fun" and is not focused enough to keep his head
strategically in the game. He bragged about this before the race
saying he is the only rider who has been able to ride the Tour just
for fun. That just blew up in his face and he is currently trying to
control and undo the damage it caused. You have to be focused
to win sports events and such over confidence will beat you every
time. The time when you are most vulnerable to being beat is
when you think you can't be beat.
Second, he is so focused on Vino as a threat that he has failed to
recognize that there may be other threats about to bite him in the
butt. What he is saying, is not what I am seeing. I see
a number of other riders who pose a significant enough threat to
Lance so that, if his team is broken and doesn't recover, they can
all beat him with the right team tactics.
I see six riders who pose a significant threat to Lance at this time
and three of them are on CSC making CSC the more significant threat
than T-Mobile. Yet, Lance is focused almost entirely on Vino
from the T-Mobile team.
All of these riders are either 2'18" ahead of Lance or within 1'50"
of Lance putting them within reasonable reach and posing a
significant threat. All but Kloden finished within 1'26" of
Lance in the first time trial so that, if they can break Discovery
and put only 3 minutes on Lance, they have a good chance of holding
him off in the last time trial.
Voigt: He finished only 1'04" behind Lance in the first
time trial and already has 2'18" on Lance for the lead. If he
gains another 42" on Lance, it is very reasonable to see him holding
Lance off well enough in the time trial to win the Tour. You
would be surprised how hard you can ride with that Yellow Jersey on
your back and only two days left in the Tour. You also have to
remember that he is coached by Riis, the same person who surprised
everyone with Basso. Voigt can easily be another surprise.
Vino: He is recognized as a threat by Lance openly.
He is the only GC rider who finished less than one minute behind
Lance in the time trial and he is a proven climber. His big
question is the team chemistry and it is very apparent that the
coach of T-Mobile is working for Kloden to win instead of Vino
causing considerable team friction. This is the greatest
weakness in this team and decreases its potential to win because
properly developed bicycle road racing is a team sport. Quit
trying to read it as an individual sport.
Julich: A year ago, Julich was no threat because he
couldn't time trial his way out of a closet. This year, he
finished only 1'07" behind Lance in the first time trial riding what
had to be his best time trial ever and Lance is ignoring him?
Not smart, because Julich is already a proven climber. Julich
is in the same boat as Voigt in that all he has to do is put about 3
minutes on Lance and he could hold Lance off well enough in the last
TT to win the Tour. Julich is only 1'07" behind Lance and
being ignored by Lance. He could easily make for a nasty Riis
surprise.
Basso: He has already shown what Riis can do with a
former no-threat rider. Even Lance has admitted that, if Basso
can time trial as well in the Tour as he did in the Giro, he is a
threat. Basso lost a little more time than most of the other
GC contenders but still only lost 1'26" which means he would only
have to put about 3 to 4 minutes on Lance in the other stages to
hold him off in the last time trial IF Basso doesn't improve in that
last time trial. Basso is suffering from riding sick in the
Giro like I told you he would but he has also been lying low resting
his legs with no attacking so that he may very well be more
recovered by the last time trial than he was for the first time
trial and do much better. Lance isn't paying attention to this
and Basso could easily be the nastiest surprise of the Tour, if he
recovers during most of the Tour. He has been doing that.
Ullrich: In the past, Ullrich has shown up so out of
shape that he lost five minutes or more in the first few mountain
stages before he found his form putting him out of the race.
So far, in the mountains, Ullrich has been in the mix and, if he
doesn't lose time in tomorrow's stage, he will be a major threat.
He did lose time in the first time trial showing he was off form a
little but only lost 1'08" and should be in full form by the last
time trial posing a serious threat of beating Lance in that time
trial. He may only have to be even with Lance to win the Tour
in that last time trial. Lance may have to be significantly
ahead of Ullrich by then and he only has 1'36" on Ullrich.
Lance cannot lose any time to Ullrich.
Kloden: I consider Kloden a long shot unless he
improves considerably in the last time trail or has a significant
lead on Lance going into it. He will need at least four to
five minutes on Lance, if he doesn't improve in the last time trial.
But He has to be considered a threat partly because he has T-Mobile
behind him to help give him the time he needs.
In the teams analysis, Lance is focused on T-Mobile because of Vino
and them having two other strong GC riders to help him. He
seems to be missing the big picture that the coach seems to be
coaching for Kloden to win and not Vino creating team friction the
way I warned you before the race it could pose a threat. This
team friction could be T-Mobile's biggest weakness and eliminate
them as a threat. On the other hand, CSC has great team
chemistry and has three of Lance's worst threats plus a strong and
well placed Sastre for tactical support. They have three
strong GC riders with one of them 2'18" ahead of Lance and the other
two only 1 to 1.5 minutes behind him. That can easily
disappear in one mountain stage.
T-Mobile only has one rider as well placed as CSC's three best
placed riders, they only have two riders as well placed as CSC's
four best placed riders, they don't have half the team chemistry as
CSC, and the CSC coach, Riis, should be famous now for pulling
rabbits out of hats and surprising everyone. If Lance doesn't
start paying more attention to CSC and CSC uses the right tactics,
Riis is about to walk away with the bunny farm.
Lance better circle up the wagons because his butt is in big
trouble. If Riis is smart enough to finish off Lance before he
wages war with T-Mobile or the other teams, he is the man who can
beat Lance.
The most significant remaining stages are 10, 15, and 20 but, I have
already stated again and again that, the way this Tour is
structured, most of the other remaining stages can break any team
and turn this Tour around on a dime. That has already been
proven with two insignificant mountain stages breaking Discovery.
To show you how severe this really is, there MIGHT be three stages
left that are flat enough that Boonen can be with the first pack and
win the stages with two weeks of racing left. It is possible
there are only two. The rest of the stages are at least
semi-mountain to mountain stages which are easier for breaks to win
than for a pack sprint to win.
With dead teams that can't bring back breaks, those stages become
strategically significant also. All that needs to happen is
for your team to break so you are left to defend by yourself, the
other teams box your butt in, they send their top riders up the road
in a break, put 10 to over 15 minutes on you, and your race is over.
The GC leader MUST have a strong team to defend the lead following
stage 15 or the other teams can kill him in any one of those stages.
This is a team sport and don't forget it.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage is the second most significant mountain stage in
this Tour. It is 192.5 kms long with two long cat 1 climbs and
a mountain top finish. This stage will tell us who the top
three to five riders are which should have a good chance of winning
the Tour. It will also tell us how Discovery is doing as a
team, if the T-Mobile soap opera will continue, and if CSC can do
descent battle. Watch for the battle for the White Jersey also
with Karpets.
There is one road prime before the first climb at about 40 km into
the stage so I expect to see the sprinter teams, especially Cofidis,
to keep the peloton together for that road prime. That road
prime will be one of the few chances left Boonen has to keep his
title. Then there
should be a KOM break to win the KOM points for the first climb and
win the stage. They may or may not stay off.
I expect a lot of attacking on the last climb and we will see how
well Discovery does. This is a stage you don't want to miss.
