Stage 1

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Stage 1

Day 1 - Fromentine - Noirmoutier en I'll 19 Km

Stage Analysis

This stage was much more important than a regular prologue because the time trial was long enough to cause riders to lose significant time and it shows how the different riders should be expected to perform in the last time trial on the next to last day. By looking at the times for the top riders on the teams, you should also be able to get an idea of what to expect in the team time trial. Being the first stage in the Tour, it also requires you be in top form earlier in this Tour or lose time.

You have to remember that every second you lose in one stage, you will have to make up in another stage just to break even. It is crucial to not lose much time in this time trial, especially as short as it is. I would say that their goal should have been to keep their loses in today's stage to less than one minute, preferably 30 seconds. Keeping all of that in mind, I was absolutely amazed at how much time some riders lost today.

First, let's look at the riders who did well. Zabriske won the stage and will be only the third US rider to wear the Yellow Jersey in the Tour. Congratulations Zabriske but I expect him to lose considerable time in the mountains. The most significant riders who did well are Armstrong, Vinokourov, Landis, Voigt, and Galdeano. Since Lance put 51 seconds on his nearest serious GC competitor, Vino, this is an excellent victory for Lance and a great way to start his last Tour. Vino and Landis have set themselves well to be in the battle for the Yellow Jersey with only a little time to make up in the mountains and Vino has set himself up to be the best rider on the team when going into the mountains.

Interestingly, Voigt and Galdeano have both set themselves up to be the potential team leader for their teams because their stated team leaders did poorly and Voigt and Galdeano both do well in the mountains. Basso is already 1'24" behind Lance and over 20 seconds behind Voigt so that one has to wonder if this is a sign that he did not recover well from riding sick in the Giro. Heras finished 2'18" behind Lance and should be expected to lose at least another three to four minutes in the last time trial while Beloki finished 2'03" behind Lance and should be expected to lose just about as much in the last time trial. They will be hard put to make top five on GC so Saiz should seriously consider putting the team behind Galdeano who is also a strong climber and has finished top five on GC in the past.

Voigt only finished 1'02" behind Lance, Galdeano finished 1'04" behind Lance, and even Jullich finished only 1'07" behind Lance so that there are two climbers ahead of Basso on GC with only a short time trial behind them. Though it should be pointed out that this does give CSC a great team position for the rest of the race with three riders reasonably close on GC.

For such a short time trail, Ullrich finished a surprising 1'08" showing that he is, as usual, starting the Tour off form and has already lost valuable time to Lance in a discipline in which Ullrich depends on to beat Lance. This makes today's stage a significant victory for Lance and a significant loss for Ullrich. Another surprising loss of significant time was Kloden losing almost two minutes to Lance which puts him in serious doubt of being able to be the second rider on the team. These two riders may even find themselves riding the race for Vino and it has to be stated that the T-Mobile results sets them up to be one of the top teams for the team time trial.

Concerning the team time trial, I have to say that Discovery has to be the favorite with Lance at 2 seconds, Hincapie at 57", Rubiera at 1'16", Popovych at 1'18, Savoldelli at 1'35", and Azevedo at 1'39". They definitely have a strong time trialing force but they need to keep an eye on CSC. CSC had Voigt at 1'04", Julich at 1'07", Basso at 1'26", and Zabriske won the stage. Landis should also have a good team time trial since they had four riders in the first 1'31". On the other hand, Galdeano has his work cut out for him because their team didn't have many riders in the top ranks for today's stage. He may lose some time in the team time trial.

Remember that, in the Tour, you have to time trial with the best and climb with the best or get served butt by the best.

This race is already shaping up to be a four team battle for the race win between Discovery, T-Mobile, Phonak, and CSC. Others like Liberty have a chance but it is going to be a long shot. At this time I think the top riders you need to keep an eye on are Armstrong, Vino, Landis, Voigt, Galdeano, Julich, Ullrich, Leipheimer, Basso, and maybe a long shot for Kloden.

The next major test and culling or sorting out of riders will be the team time trial coming up this Tuesday. What you will need to watch out for will be which teams and their hopeful riders will lose too much time. It will also be interesting to see how the flatter stages are ridden with the new Tour format.

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