Stage 11

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Stage 11

Day 12 Courchevel - Briancon 173 km

Analysis

This Tour has been full of surprises and even Lance has to be surprised about some of them. Before the Tour, Lance stated that he felt his greatest threats would come from Vino and Ullrich who are all but out of the running for the Yellow Jersey.

Then there is the big question about whether Discovery broke on stage eight or faked it. Last night, I realized that question would be answered today. It is possible for Discovery to break on stage 8, give up the lead during stage 9, have the rest day, not have to lead for the first of stage 10, and still ride the last climb in stage 10 strong. But, if they did break on stage 8, then they should have at least struggled and probably broken on stage 11 with two long HC climbs after riding the last climb hard in stage 10. They did neither telling me that they faked the bonk and sucker punched all of us, especially the other teams.

Did you notice the overwhelming power of Discovery today? They were the only team who had more than three riders in the first pack late in the stage and had from five to seven. It is a dominant team unless they break and we have seen them break two or three times in the past six years.

What I believe happened is that Lance knew we expected anyone who tried to tow as long as they had to break so he used everyone's expectations to gain the upper hand in the race. By having his team fake the bonk and back off leaving Lance alone, he knew it would start a feeding frenzy because he had been there before.

So, when Discovery backed off, the other top riders began trying to tear Lance apart and wore their own legs out on two KOM mountain stages. Lance also permitted Voigt to take the lead so CSC would have to defend in the first half of the 10th stage permitting Discovery to rest. When Lance and Discovery lowered the hammer in stage 10 on the last climb, everyone who had been attacking in stages 8 and 9 broke their legs and went backwards losing a lot of time. Today, Voigt's legs were so trashed that he completely missed cut off and is out of the race completely.

Now all of those riders are in a time hole they have to dig out of just to be even with Lance. All Lance has to do is play the delaying game he is so good at. He just sits behind his team while permitting riders who are really down on GC to slowly gain time in long breaks and tiring their own legs out more. For example, in today's break, Lance could have easily permitting Vino to gain 6 minutes and still have a 30 second lead but Vino would have taken well over 6 minutes out of his legs for the 14th and 15th stages.

Did you notice that they pulled Vino back in to within 3 minutes several times but permitted Vino to have time back until the end when they pulled Vino and Botero back in to less than 2 minutes? Even though Discovery didn't have a rider in the break, they used it as a control and controlled the amount of time they permitted Vino to get back. He is still well down on GC and out of the race but his legs are even more tired and Lance got to rest his legs.

Vino may have gone on attack hoping to gain back some time but most likely he knows he is out of the running for the Yellow Jersey and was riding for a stage win and maybe even KOM. Botero was clearly riding for KOM and a stage win.

With all the top contenders out of the running and so far down on GC, the Discovery Team can ride an easier pace and still control the race permitting riders to get back some of their time but not enough to be a threat. The question is, will this be enough rest for Discovery or will they actually break leaving Lance vulnerable later in the race? There are still six mountain stages and two flat stages they will have to defend after today and before the time trial.

Today's race was ridden as a standard KOM stage with the top GC contenders content to sit in the pack and rest their legs for the 14th and 15th stages while the KOM and stage win riders did their thing. The pride of the GC riders is probably still stinging from the sucker punch they took from Lance and they even seemed intimidated by him today.

If Discovery can keep it together and Lance doesn't have any problems, it looks like the race for the Yellow Jersey is all but over though anything can still happen. The biggest question at this time is who will get second and how far behind Lance?

Did you see Hushovd's effort to make the first road prime with the leaders by taking a head start? It almost worked but didn't. Good try but I thought it was probably doomed by the HC climb when he took off. BTW, when the flat riders who can't climb try to give themselves a head start by going on break before the climb and using the lead as a buffer against the climbers, the climbers call that break the fat boy pack. :-)

Tomorrow

Tomorrow is another KOM stage with five rated climbs of which two are cat 2. It is a moderate 187 km and mostly downhill in nature so that the downward slope of the course will help them carry their speed over most of the climbs. It should be a fast stage though I don't expect most sprinters to make the finish because of the cat 2 climbs. O'Grady, Hushovd, and McGee might be there for some points in the Points Title race.

There are two road primes in the first 45 km and before any climbs so watch the sprinter teams go for at least the first prime before permitting the stage break to go up the road. Then there should be the usual stage break which might make it if there isn't anyone in it high on GC. Some of the riders going for this break will also be trying to win the KOM Title.

We are only two days from the beginning of the two most significant mountain stages and there are still six stages with significant climbs. This is a very tough Tour.

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