Stage 13

T
D
F

2
0
0
5

Back to Main Tour Index
Go to coachcarl.com Home Page

Stage 13

Day 14 Miramas - Montpellier 162 km

Analysis

Some interesting things happened in today's stage. First, Discovery controlled the peloton at the first when it was expected the sprinter teams would keep it together for the first road prime. Discovery kept bringing back break attempts and I couldn't figure out why until they let a break with American Chris Horner in it go up the road before the first road prime. They accomplished two things with this move. First, they protected Lance from a possible crash during the sprint for the prime. Second, they got a friend of theirs, Chris Horner in the stage break for a possible stage win. That was a nice move and dispels any of the cloak and dagger crap you often see printed in cycling magazines.

For the first half of the stage, Discovery controlled the peloton permitting the break to gain up to a little over 9 minutes before the sprinter teams took control and started working to bring the break back in and they did so quite rapidly. It was at this point that Discovery surprised us again by taking control and dropping the pace just enough to keep the break at ten seconds. They were riding with Lance at the front to protect him from crashing during the sprint action in the narrow, winding streets of Montpellier, where the stage finished. Second, they were trying to block by slowing the pace just enough to keep the break from losing any more ground so they could stay off. Read my chapter about blocking in my e-book, "A Better Way To Train" for sale here on my site and you will understand what and how they were doing much better.

It almost worked but the sprinter teams took back control in the closing kilometers and caught Horner and Chavanel in the last 400 meters with McEwen taking the stage win. Discovery managed to make what would have been a boring stage a little more interesting and fun.

The biggest news of the day was when Valverde retired from the Tour after having been sick for two days. This is a shame because I was looking forward to the battle in the mountains during the next two stages and he was one of the more promising contestants for that battle. This was a big plus for Discovery and a big let down for us fans.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's stage is 220.5 km with a long HC climb at the end just before the cat 1 climb the stage finishes on top of. There will be four lesser climbs at the midpoint of the stage, which is the second most significant mountain stage in this Tour and the day before the most significant mountain stage, which is 205.5 kms. In the next two stages, there will be 426 kms of hard racing with one cat 2, five cat 1, and two HC climbs with two mountain top finishes in both stages. It will be brutal racing. Legs will break and riders will retire from the race in large numbers.

It is very likely that Discovery will break in one of the next two stages, probably by the end of the 15th stage leaving Lance to fight on his own, especially with Beltran out of the race. Beltran was one of Lance's strongest and most dependable domestiques in the mountains and losing him is a major blow against the team with these two long, really hard stages coming. Valverde dropping out of the race will help this a little.

I expect the looming battle to come from a number of quarters. First, Rasmussen, who is only 38" down on GC, may have enough leg left to give Lance a run for first place and should be expected to try IF he doesn't just drop from riding so hard in all those KOM stages. I have noticed that he has been resting more and riding off the front less since he moved into second on GC.

I also expect Mancebo to give us more action in the next two stages because he was in there trading blows with Lance in stage 10. He is climbing very strong and is only 2'34" down on GC.

There are still four very dangerous riders just within reach of the Yellow Jersey lurking on the horizon. They are just barely inside the five minute mark that normally puts a rider completely out of the Tour and, if Discovery breaks and they can break Lance, as he has twice in the past, Lance could lose five minutes in one bad day in the mountains putting them back in the race. These riders are Ullrich, Kloden, Landis, and Vino. Did you notice that Vino's ride a few days ago brought his time back up to only 4'47" down on Lance? He is now back within striking distance and you know he won't just sit and watch the race.

I expect some battle from Botero and Leipheimer but not a lot though they have been riding and climbing significantly stronger this year. It could be just enough battle to make a difference in the outcome of the Tour and move them up in GC and, with the right break, into the lead. Why not, haven't we already had plenty of surprises this Tour?

I have been quietly watching Basso through the mountains. He started the Tour a little off form from riding the Giro sick but he has been riding his own race very quietly resting his legs. He has not permitted Lance to pull him into any of Lance's traps and has been sitting very quietly only 2'40" behind Lance doing damage control the same way Riis had him doing last year until the last critical mountain stages. If Basso has recovered enough from his ride in the Giro and/or the other riders have tired themselves enough for him to be a serious threat, I expect this little Italian lion to roar quite loudly in the next few days. Riis used Voigt and Julich to pull Lance out for battle in the first few mountain stages while he had Basso quietly resting on Lance's wheel. Keep an eye on this guy. The big question is, "Will Basso have the legs to be the Italion lion?"

This race is about to get very interesting.

Back to Main Tour Index

Top of Page