Stage 16

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Stage 16

Day 18 Mourenx - Pau 177 km

Analysis

Today's stage went pretty much as expected. It started with a lot of attacking and counter attacking with large numbers of riders trying to get off. Did you see Popovych make a break? At first I thought he might have been sent up as a control by Discovery but then I saw Kashechkin in the same break and realized that, since Popovych is wearing the White Jersey and Kashechkin was in second for that title, Popovych was marking Kashechkin and followed him into the break with Kashechkin trying to make the break to gain time for the title. There was a great race for the White Jersey in the first 30 to 40 km with Contador and Iglinskiy also making breaks and being brought back in. Kashechkin made another break later but some fan punched him in the face giving him a bloody nose forcing him to drop back to see the doctor.

These out of control fans need to be arrested and thrown in jail. You do not have a right to physically assault and batter a human being just because he is an athlete and you are a fan. I don't blame athletes for fighting back in self defense and find it deplorable that the media put athletes down for defending themselves. Let's see the fans physically attack the journalists for a while and see how they like it.

The break was finally let go up the road right after the first road prime even though none of the top Points leaders were in that prime. The breaks were most likely kept in because of teams not liking the make up in the breaks.

Did you see Vino attack on the cat 1 climb? He let the break go up the road until it was established because he knew Discovery wouldn't permit him in it from the start and then attacked on the climb to attempt to bridge to the break and gain time for GC. Good move even though it didn't work because he got caught on the HC climb by Lance's group.

The peloton really broke up on the cat 1 climb with all of Lance's support getting dropped except for Hincapie. Once the cat 1 and HC climbs started, there was a lot of attacking by good climbers trying to bridge to the winning break for either a stage win or to gain time.

On the HC climb, did you see the T-Mobile and CSC riders attacking, first to break Hincapie and, then after Hincapie was dropped, to get T-Mobile and CSC riders up the road. When I saw the latter, I knew what was next and so did Lance. As soon as both teams had riders significantly ahead of Lance's group, both Ullrich and Basso attacked Lance but Lance had it covered. Great anticipation by Lance because they were trying to get riders up the road, attack Ullrich and Basso to those riders, and use those riders to put time into Lance on the rest of the climb and downhill just like I said they would try to do. It was a great effort but they couldn't break Lance.

Did you see, after that attack, that Hincapie forced himself back to Lance's group but one attack put him back out of it and Lance was forced to the front to set pace to suppress the attacks. That was great racing.

After they made the top of the HC climb and Lance had not been dropped, T-Mobile changed its racing strategy from trying to put time on Lance to trying to gain back time from Evans in the winning break for Kloden to keep Kloden in the top 10 on GC. Then four Discovery riders used the downhill, along with a lot of other riders, to catch up to Lance's group but T-Mobile still tried to bring back time for Kloden.

The four survivors of the break won the stage and Evans moved from 11th to 7th on GC bumping Kloden to 11th. Most of the rest of the break came in behind the winners and then Lance's group.

I think it is important to mention that a few fans who have been watching OLN have emailed me telling me that my analysis is wrong because the OLN experts have said something different. For example, the OLN crew (I don't know who they are; I don't watch them) said that Discovery has not been breaking because of their tactics but that, when they reach a point to where Lance is alone with from 10 to over 30 of the best climbers and GC riders in the world, Lance looks back at his team and says something to the effect, "You guys can take a break now; I will handle these boys!" Give me a break. What a bunch of nonsense. Who in their right mind would send their entire team back to rest when they are in the middle of being attacked repeatedly and having to cover those attacks by themselves? I truly believe Lance isn't that stupid.

Today's stage proved me right in that, when Ullrich and Basso started attacking Lance, Discovery had Hincapie force himself back into Lance's group but Hincapie was dropped again the first time Ullrich attacked forcing Lance to do the pace setting to suppress the attacking. Their legs are dead from all that towing.

I want to know how many of these experts writing or talking about the Tour on other sites or TV told you yesterday that T-Mobile and CSC would try to break Discovery on the first cat 1 climb, try to break Lance on the HC climb, and then try to go up the road to put time on Lance on the HC climb the way they did? Don't send me emails telling me I am wrong with my read because some expert, who can't call the moves as well as I do, says something different. Get a clue.

Probably the main reason why I am not working for one of those sites or media is because I tell you things about your heroes that some of you don't want to hear and it offends some of you. The media, advertisers, and sponsors know it and don't want to be associated with someone who offends fanatical fans by telling the truth about their heroes. They would rather hire some one who will tell you the nicy-nice crap and keep being surprised and causing you to be surprised. I don't tell you just the nicy-nice crap the other media tell you and you don't get the surprises on this site you do with those media. Here, you have a much better idea of what is going to happen and why because I am right about what will happen most of the time and more often than those experts which is why so many of you come to this site.

Just because those over-paid experts say something different from me doesn't mean I am wrong. It usually means they are wrong because my reads are very close most of the time. I am human, make mistakes, and try to admit it when I do, but I am right a lot of the time.

Tomorrow

First, understand that we are getting very late in the Tour and there are few stages left to win and one less stage to win each day. Most of the titles are reasonably set with increasing numbers of domestiques being freed up by their teams to race for stage wins. Expect to see more and more attacking with each day by larger and larger groups of riders for stage wins.

Tomorrow's stage is very long at 239.5 km with four rated climbs and only one road prime. I believe this stage and the following stages were designed to specifically weaken and beat Discovery and keep Lance from winning his 7th Tour. The reason being is this stage is very long, flat enough that the peloton will stay pretty much together but hilly enough for a long break and to tire already tired legs, and it is followed by two mountain stages with cat 2 climbs to break Discovery. The promoters have seen Discovery break in at least three previous Tours and designed these stages to cause that to happen when the stages are hilly enough to break a very tired team but flat enough for the other teams to use team tactics. Because of this, these three stages could be their greatest test, especially since they are at the end of the Tour and following 8 mountain stages. That should be obvious by now.

If Discovery doesn't send a rider up the road in the break tomorrow, they will probably be forced to tow the peloton for most of this very long stage tiring them out for stage 18 with two cat 2 climbs and with the stage finishing at the top of the second climb. Stage 18 will probably be T-Mobile's and CSC's last chance to get back time before the time trial, though stage 19 does provide tactical opportunities for a break if needed. Unless an opportunity really presents itself, I expect the top GC riders to ride reasonably easy in stage 19 because it is the day before the time trial. But that may not necessarily be so when you realize that Lance beat all of them in the first time trial and they will probably have a better chance of gaining time on Lance in stage 19 than the time trial. They may go for it.

But, for tomorrow, I expect to see the T-Mobile and CSC teams being very happen to rest on the Discovery wheels for stage 18.

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