Stage 18

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Stage 18

Day 20 Albi - Mende 189 km

Analysis

It was a good stage race and things happened as expected. First, there were a lot of attacks that kept being brought back in and they were really big. At one point, I had to laugh when 25 riders made the break. Even this late in the Tour, you know a break that big isn't going to be let go. That was almost 1 out of every 6 riders still in the Tour and had about every team represented in it. I think almost half the peloton tried to get off today.

That break came back in quickly and they let a 10 rider break go up the road with the best placed rider almost 40 minutes down on GC so the peloton could have had a picknic and nothing would have changed in the top 10 on GC. Of course, the peloton let the break go up to over 15 minutes while Discovery kept the pace fast to suppress attacks as long as they could.

Just before the first cat 2 climb, Armstrong and all the other top GC riders and they teams moved forward. They expected what I expected, which was attacking, but Discovery kept the pace fast enough over the climb that everyone was happen to sit in and rest for the attacking to come at the end of the stage.

Did you see Da Cruz attack just before the cat 3 climb leading into the last really steep cat 2 climb? He knew he would lose ground on the cat 2 climb and tried to get enough of a lead to still be with the first riders at the top of the climb but it didn't work. As expected, the stage was won by a break, this time a solo.

Kashechkin did the same thing just ahead of the peloton in hopes of not losing time to Popovych on the climb. It didn't work either. He lost over a minute and Popovych who has a very strong hold on the White Jersey. Most likely Popovych will wear it in Paris after the race.

As expected, on the final climb, Basso attacked, Evans and Ullrich caught up and then Lance caught for a four rider break. Lance tried to set pace to suppress the attacks but Basso attacked again and, when Lance stayed with Basso, Basso tried to grind Lance off temporarily dropping Ullrich, who fought back on before the top. They tried to drop Lance again and gain a little time but failed. Evans managed to gain enough time on Vino to move back ahead of him on GC. It is great that, even this late in the Tour, Basso is still giving Lance a race for his money. Lance and Discovery have really earned this Tour.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's stage is a short 153.5 km with only one cat 2 climb in the first half of the stage. Basso MAY OR MAY NOT try something on the cat 2 climb to gain a little time before the time trial on the next day. He may just decide to save his legs and do the best he can in the time trial. We will see what his choice will be. Since Lance beat everyone pretty handily in the first time trial, it is almost a "why not try" to gain time in the road stage.

I expect a lot of heavy attacking by large groups of riders at the start with 38 kms of climbing before the cat 2 climb. With the right break, the stage should be won by a break. The KOM Title is pretty much set and Rasmussen will probably wear the polka dot jersey in Paris after the race. You might watch Hushovd, O'Grady, or McEwen try to make tomorrow's break as McEwen tried today but gave up early because of the really steep last cat 2 climb.

There are only two road stages left and about 100 riders+ who would like to win a stage so expect that to become the hardest fought remaining battle except for the time trial. Tomorrow, I will do a little preview for the time trial and then, after the race in my post Tour analysis, I will do a little coaching review to show you how to use losing in a race to set up your training strategy for custom designing your program for self improvement using my book. It will be fun.

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