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Stage 20
Day 22 Saint Etienne - Saint Etienne TT 55 km
Analysis
The time trial went mostly as expected. Basso started strong
with a faster time than Lance at the first time check but faded
after that. He managed to hold onto second on GC and Lance
went out like a champion by winning the last significant stage for
GC.
Rasmussen had more than his share of problems with two crashes and
numerous bike changes. He lost a lot more time than I expected
and fell even further down the standings than I forecasted. I
had him only dropping to 5th and he fell or plunged to 7th.
Mancebo did a much better time trial than he did for the first time
trial. The climbing probably helped him this time and he
probably fought a lot harder with 5th place to defend. He
actually stayed ahead of Leipheimer, Vino, and Landis on GC.
The climbing in the stage was probably more to his liking.
Evans also did a much better time trial than the first time and it
could be that his collar bone has mended more plus he stated before
the stage that he preferred a time trial course with more
undulation. He only dropped to 8th on GC and I had him
dropping to 9th. And Pereiro road better than his first time
trial keeping Moreau from taking back 10th spot. Landis rode
worse than I expected him to ride staying in 9th place on GC.
This was the final sorting of the GC standings and this race is over
barring something bad like an illness or injury.
The remaining racing will be for the Points Title and tomorrow's
stage. As far as GC is concerned, this Tour is all but over
and Lance has earned it the hard way.
Tomorrow
There is a tradition in the Tour for the first part of the last
stage into Paris to be more of a parade than a race with the GC
winner celebrating his victory with his team. Just before they
enter the Champs-Elysees, the attacking will begin for the stage
win. It is a very flat course and the sprinter teams will want
to keep it together for the road primes and finish. The big
dual will be by O'Grady and McEwen to gain points for moving up on
the standings for the Points Title and Hushovd trying to gain points
to keep his lead.
Most likely the stage will be won by a pack sprint but,
occasionally, it is won by a small group just off the front by less
than 10 seconds.
Don't forget that Monday, I will have my post Tour analysis and do a
coach's performance analysis for you.
