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Stage 4
Day 4 Tours - Blois TTT 66 km
Results
Today's race turned out pretty much as expected with only a few
surprises. The big team battle was between Discovery, CSC, and
T-Mobile with Liberty and Phonak close behind. The big
surprise of the day was Liberty doing so well which speaks highly of
coach Saiz in that he took a team that didn't do too well in the
individual time trial and did very well in the team time trial.
You could see that as T-Mobile lost more riders, their time
suffered. They only finished with six riders. Even the
loss of just one rider, Zabriskie, was enough to drop CSC behind
Discovery. But even worse, it dropped Zabriskie 1'26" behind
Lance and out of the lead when Zabriskie crashed in the closing
kilometers.
Of course, this was the fastest team time trial every; they had a
tail wind all of the way.
Tomorrow morning, expect Lance to make the statement that he will
not defend the Yellow Jersey right now. On the other hand,
Lance and Discovery couldn't be in a better position. He is in
the lead with Popovych, Savoldelli, and Azevedo all within 1'37" and
his nearest competitors are Voigt, Julich, and Vino at 1'04", 1'07",
and 1'21" respectively. Vino lost 30 seconds for the day
dropping to seventh and should be at least one of Lance's worst
threats at this time. Of Lance's competitors, Landis took the
biggest hit losing 48" and dropping to 1'50" in 20th place showing
that Phonak is strong but may not be strong enough.
Discovery has Lance in first for the Yellow Jersey and Popovych in
first for the White Jersey which provides Discovery will all kinds
of strategic and tactical opportunities in conjunction with the ones
I have already stated. There is nothing like holding the best
hand in the house after only four stages in the Tour. Their
strategic position at this point is huge but beatable.
CSC is in good position to throw a tripple threat of Voigt, Julich,
and Basso at Discovery so expect a good battle from them.
T-Mobile can still stage a double threat of Vino and Ullrich with
Kloden a distant but reasonable threat at 2'29", who will most
likely spend the race riding as a domestique. I really think
that Galdeano and Landis will be racing for a top three to five
finish on GC.
Galdeano also lost 38" as I expected him to lose time but the
surprise performance of Liberty saved him some time. Don't be
surprised to see Liberty race for a top five with Galdeano and for
first in the White Jersey. I don't know how well they climb,
but Liberty currently has two riders in the top five for the White
Jersey. If they have that many good riders who are that young,
it should always tell you that the team is in a development phase
and you need to watch them in the future.
Food for thought: Americans will like this because they love
Hincapie. Have you noticed that George has been steadily
getting better at both time trialing and climbing. He is
easily one of the best time trialers in the world and is a first
pack climber even after towing for miles. Has Lance been
secretly grooming him to become the team GC leader after Lance
retires? It is something any good coach should at least keep
an eye on. From some of the things I have seen Lance do this
year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride for Hincapie to win
this Tour as a parting gift to a friend.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage is only 183 kms with only one cat 4 climb at the
109 km mark. There are three road primes with the first one at
about 20 kim. There may be a limited effort for the first road
prime before the break is allowed to go up the road. Expect to
see riders like Voeckler, Dekker, Bodrogi, and Cancellara try to
make the break. Voeckler and Dekker will be try to win the
stage and get the KOM points for the one climb of the day so they
can have the climber's jersey for the next day. On the other
hand, there are four KOM primes in the sixth stage so some one like
Voeckler or Dekker might decide to go for that stage break instead
of tomorrow's stage.
The day after the team time trial might be a good day for a break to
stay off because fewer riders will feel like chasing as hard.
This could be a reasonable chance for a stage win with a break but
don't bet on it. It could be a close one.
One thing you have to keep in mind is that some of the teams
who know they don't have a prayer in making top five or ten on GC
will sand bag just a little in the team time trial to save something
for the next few days of racing in hopes of winning something else.
Watch to see who rides strong tomorrow but did poorly today.
Will Boonen win another stage taking it to three in a row?
That will be interesting to watch.
We are now only five stages from the first true mountain stage,
stage 9. The battle for Points, KOM, Combativity, and stage
wins will heat up as the number of stages the riders can win
decreases. Every day, there will be one fewer stage than the
day before (except, of course, on the rest days.)
