Stage 7

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Stage 7

Day 7 Luneville - Karlsruhe 225 km

Analysis

First, I have had a number of requests concerning referring books for people to read and learn about racing strategies and tactics. My e-book, "A Better Way To Train", was the first book on the market to provide detailed racing strategies and tactics for bicycle racing, is still one of only two books teaching strategies and tactics, and is still the most comprehensive book on strategies and tactics on the market. It contains about five times the information of a regular cycling book which is why it has to be sold as an e-book. It would cost too much to print a cycling book with that much information in it and few people would pay enough money to make it profitable. Most of the sections in the book, including but not limited to Strategies, Sports Psychology, Training, Professional Riding, The Bike, Coaching, and Management, have as much or more information than most cycling books and much of the information is still not available anywhere else in cycling. The book can be purchased and downloaded from this site.

Second, one of my readers asked some interesting questions I answered for all of you on my page titled In The News. It can be reached from a link on the front page just above that beautiful picture of me.

Now for the stage analysis.

As expected, there was a battle to get off for the KOM primes but there was also a battle for the first road prime because Boonen and Hushovd were so close in points. There was quite a bit of attacking, including Dekker but, unfortunately, the race radio wasn't working too well and we missed out on who else was trying to get away.

It was surprising that the breaks were kept in until the first KOM prime and then Wegmann got off with McEwen on his wheel. Surprisingly, McEwen stayed with Wegmann for a while thinking about the road primes. This was an act of desperation because of his recent troubles and either wisdom or the coach got to him and had him get back in the peloton. For McEwen to go on a break in this stage was not like McEwen because he is just too much of a sprinter and not much of a break rider plus the long descent into the finish almost guaranteed the break would be caught, as I told you yesterday. A peloton just moves way too fast on such a long, steady descent.

Wegmann's effort was commendable and you never know if you can stay off if you don't try. It also earned him the KOM Jersey for tomorrow. This is important because Wegmann won the KOM Jersey for the Giro once and it makes him a threat in this title to the finish. Keep an eye on this man for this title.

The peloton let the lead get out really big because it was just one rider and they knew the effects of the long descent. Even though the lead got big and the chasers started later than normal, they still caught Wegmann 20 km from the finish. The sprinter teams even eased off the chase at one point because they were catching him too fast and didn't want to set up any late counter attacks and lose the stage.

With the long, straight finishing stretch, there was a drag race between about half a dozen teams trying to get their riders in position for the sprint. See my chapter on sprinting tactics for road racing to understand what was going on in that last 1,400 meters. Everyone wanted their best sprinter in the right position at the right time.

Yesterday, the writer for the news flashes on the Tour site said there was no change on GC so I took his word for it and didn't check it out. It turns out he was wrong. Vino's late attack earned him enough time in one short, easy attack to move him up from 7th on GC to 3rd and only 1'02" behind Lance. He got a time bonus for finishing second in the stage and the 7 seconds he gained on the peloton with his attack. Good move by Vino.

The big change in the race for the Points Title is that McEwen has finally gotten himself into the top three behind Boonen and Hushovd. This race is developing into a four rider race with Boonen and Hushovd being the two stronger riders at this point. We will see what happens in and after the mountains.

This was a fun and interesting stage with some surprises, which is always good.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's stage is very interesting and promising. There is a good chance a break will win this stage so watch for the attacking early. The stage is a long 231.5 km with four cat 3 KOM primes in the first 48 km and the first road prime at 64.5 km. What I expect to see in this stage is that the teams for the top contenders in the KOM Title will try to keep it together for the first primes but the attacking and sprinting for so many cat 3 primes in a row will cause a break of KOM riders to quickly form. I doubt that the pack will try to keep the breaks in until the first road prime and they simply may not be able to.

I expect quite a few of the sprinters to be dropped early by the attacking and sprinting for the KOM primes, there will be a long run through the flat section of the stage, and then the stage finishes with the first cat 2 climb of this Tour and a six km, really fast descent to the finish. I expect this stage to be won by a group of 20 riders or less.

This should be a tough stage for Discovery because they will probably have to defend the entire stage. I doubt that the sprinter teams will even try to bring this break back in because most of their sprinters wont even be in the peloton for the sprint. A few riders like O'Grady could be there but most won't. This stage being so early, just a few days before one of the two most significant mountain stages, and with so many mountain, slightly mountain, and flat stages left is the greatest threat to Discovery because it could easily tire and break their team early enough in the Tour to cost Lance the win. With this Tour format, CSC, T-Mobile, Phonak, and Liberty could easily win this race, if they play their cards right and don't go after each other before Discovery and Lance are broken.

Tomorrow, you will definitely see some major changes in the standings for both the Yellow and White Jerseys. This stage will begin the next phase of sorting riders out on GC. By tomorrow night, you will be able to see the true Tour contenders in the top ten on GC or close to it.

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