Pre-season Teams Analysis

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Pre-season Teams Analysis

This preseason teams analysis is meant to provide you with a better understanding of team structuring and give you some things to watch for the next few months of this season. You need to watch for developing strengths and weaknesses. This analysis is aimed, primarily, at the Tour de France but includes a little information for most of the season.

GC Teams

Discovery

The Discovery team has to still be considered the favorite for the Tour now that Lance has finally committed to trying to win his seventh Tour this year. This is in spite of the fact that this may very well be a weaker team with Floyd Landis, Victor Hugo Pena, and Dave Zabriskie gone to other teams. But they have added some strong single day riders they may intend to use to fill these holes on the team. Plus Discovery still has strong riders Azevedo, Beltran, Ekimov, Hincapie, and Rubiera. So the team is still strong and is very vertically structured for Lance to win the Tour.

For some reason this year, the Discovery Team is being coy and deceptive about riding the Tour. You have to keep in mind that they clearly have something up their sleeve and a reason for having it there. There is a possibility that they are very concerned about winning this Tour because of its format and/or some other reason. This would probably be the reason for the cat-and-mouse games they have been playing. The games definitely show a concern about this Tour because they have never felt it necessary to play them before. The big question at this time is why are they so concerned?

I see two strategic possibilities that you need to watch for. One is that Discovery may try to let some one else take the early lead in the Tour this year hoping to gain that lead later in the Tour because of the new format. The other possibility is that Discovery may take the lead too early with this new format, blow up in the effort, and open the door for the other teams so it will become a chaotic slug fest between the other top GC teams. If the latter happens, some up and coming kid could take the Tour this year.

T-Mobile

T-Mobile has to be the power contender this year providing they can keep their team actions together and not let rider conflicts disrupt the team strategy and tactics. Ullrich, Vinokourov, and Kloden provide the team with a super triple threat. The biggest question with this team is has Ullrich solved his training problem that kept him out of shape until it is too late in the Tour for him to regain lost ground? Another question is whether the coach will be flexible enough to turn to Vino or Kloden to win the Tour in the event that Ullrich still can't get the job done. If they can answer these two questions right, they can seriously win the Tour with any of the three.

Euskaltel

With Mayo up to form and a strong team backing him, Euskaltel has to be a very strong contender this year. They have to get by the problems they had last year and not take a strategic sucker punch with the current Tour format. With Unai Etxebarria, Gonzales, Laiseka, and the two Zubeldia brothers, Mayo will have strong support. They only lost David Etxebarria this year. If you remember right, Mayo improved a lot last year over the previous year and may still be developing. If he is and gets even stronger this year, he will be tough to beat.

Liberty Seguros

With Heras, this team is a reasonable threat that could make the battle even tougher for Lance especially with Galdeano and, now, David Etxebarris supporting him. My question with Heras has to remain his time trialing ability for this year. If he can time trial competitively, he has a chance at winning the Tour but I consider him a dark horse this year.

CSC

The biggest ace for this team is its coach, Riis. He has shown strong improvements in his riders every year for years now because he could easily be the best developmental coach in the world at this time. Every rider who joins his teams seems to get stronger every year. With the way his team, especially Basso, did in the Tour last year, you have to keep a very close eye on this team. It could be the big upset of the new century. Add to this that they have taken in Vande Velde and Zabriskie to help the team. Riis is good and he is smart. He may be the coach to win the Tour with this new format.

Gerolsteiner

The Leipheimer/Totschnig combination makes this a reasonably strong GC team but, unless these riders have made significant improvements, I have to consider this team a long shot for the Tour GC title this year. Leipheimer and Totschnig have made some improvements but they need more. I would look for them to make a bid for top five and even that will be a hard fight with the talent on the top teams.

Illes Balears

Mancebo and Valverde have to make this a GC team but it is definitely a long shot team. Mancebo has been gradually improving over the last few years but still needs a lot more improvement before he can be considered a serious threat. You have to always keep in mind that any rider can make radical improvements in one year with the right coaching so you do have to at least consider some one like Mancebo a potential threat because he has consistently shown promise.

Lampre-Caffita

With Cunego's victory in the Giro last year, you have to consider this team as a possible threat. To ignore a rider this strong would be a mistake. This is another one of those teams any good coach will keep an eye on.

GC Summary

I only see three to four teams with a strong chance of winning the 2005 Tour and some teams with a slightly less chance of winning. Assuming that all the top riders on their teams make it to the Tour in top form, my favorites for the Yellow Jersey are Discovery, T-Mobile, and Euskaltel with CSC and Liberty Seguros not far behind in potential. That means the riders who have a realistic chance of winning, pending coaching, are Lance, Mayo, Ullrich, Kloden, and Basso with Heras, Vino, and Cunego being dark horses. If Phonak can get in the Tour, I would also keep an eye on Landis because he has a lot of potential.

Anything else is either a long shot or wishful thinking but remember that races have been won by long shots. It is amazing how much can happen between now and July.

Sprinting

With the new Tour format, the sprinting duel may be some what quelled this year. Also, there are so many fast sprinters now that it has become a matter of which team can do the best lead out in setting up their rider. For those of you who have read my ebook, you know the best teams put their sprint trains together the way I teach and the team that does the best job wins the most sprints because the lead out delivers consistency when the riders are so consistently close.

Credti Agricole

With Hushovd and Kirsipuu, this team is very strong for the sprint battles. Any more, the riders are so strong that, unless there are some climbs to break things up, most of the top races are being won by the sprinters so more teams are going with building sprint machines that shut down the breaks and bring them back in for the sprinter duel. This sprinter team has shown they can get the job done and they have to be watched in almost every race this year.

Cofidis

Stuart O'Grady seems to be riding stronger this year than in the last few years and could be back in top form. You have to at least watch this rider in the Tour and especially with the new format. It could win him a few more stages.

Davitamon-Lotto

McEwen, Rodriguez, and Steels should make this one of the best sprinter teams in the Tour this year along with it being a strong contender on the rest of the circuit. They will be tough to beat and should be in the mix at the end of the races most of the time. The interesting thing is will Rodriguez being on this team mean he will have more chances for winning and start doing better or will he be used as a team work horse doing lead outs for the others? This will be interesting to watch.

Fassa Bortolo

Petacchi is making this one of the strongest sprinting teams in the world but, remember, it takes team work to win the sprints today. Petacchi is easily one of the fastest and best sprinters in the world. You have to beat him in every race.

Franscaise Des Jeux

Cook and McGee give this team a double punch for the sprints. They are another powerful sprinting team that has to be dealt with.

Liquigas

This team will be interesting to watch because Chipo is supposed to be back in sprinting form and has already drawn blood this year. His team isn't the SAECO team of the past but they seem to have done him justice at least a few times this year. It will be fun to see how well he has returned to form.

Quick Step

So far, this year, Quick Step has shown that their team is the premier sprinting team for 2005. They have managed to give the very fast Tom Boonen a number of wins already. He is very promising for the sprinter battles in the Tour.

T-Mobile

Eric Zabel has been a little off form the last few years in the Tour but is very experienced. With a little improvement in form, he can be deadly in the sprints. This is another one of those keep an eye on it team.

Sprint Summary

Quick Step is currently showing dominance for the sprint set up giving Boonen the strategic advantage for winning races and the Green Jersey in the Tour. But there is plenty of time for the other sprinter teams to get their act together and anything can happen between now and July. There is so much sprinting talent any more that not having a dominant lead out team would result in shot gun racing where consistent winning would be anyone's guess.

Coach Carl Cantrell
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