Rest Day & Coach's Analysis
Situational Analysis
This has been a very radical and surprising Tour, as I stated at the
start it would likely be. It has been surprising everyone beyond
anyone's expectations.
GC
TMO
At this point, TMO has to be sitting in or very close to the
driver's seat for this Tour. The big question is how well can
Honchar, Rogers, Sinkewitz, and Kessler climb. We know Kloden, in
6th place is a strong GC rider and, if one or more of the other TMO
riders can climb well enough to provide the team with good tactical
strength, then TMO has to be the race favorite.
If none of the TMO riders can climb well enough to help or work with
Kloden, then TMO will be chasing Landis and Phonak. If Honchar can
climb well enough to stay close to Landis by the next time trial,
Landis has to put at least 2.5 minutes into Honchar in the mountains
to have a strong hope of holding Honchar off in the last time trial
to win this Tour.
Ironically, If Honchar and the other TMO riders can't climb well
enough to present a threat to Landis, Kloden must put 2.5 minutes
into Landis in the mountains to be able to hold Landis off in the
last time trial to win this Tour. So the big question for TMO at
this point is whether the top placed TMO riders other than Kloden
can stay with or beat Landis in the mountains.
Strategically, TMO has to have at least a slight tactical advantage
over PHO but, can they use that advantage to win? They showed
excellent tactical intelligence yesterday when they put one of their
own riders in the winning break and forced PHO to spend the day
chasing and permitted their team to rest when they would have been
required to do the chasing. (They used the team leverage principles
I teach in my book.)
At this time, the biggest weakness of TMO has to be its team size.
It started the Tour with 7 riders when the other teams had 8 or 9
riders because of the drug scandal. Their team strength was down by
over 20% so they must conserve energy to make up for this deficite
or they will run out of gas 20% short of the win.
PHO
Phonak has a great tactical position but their team strength and
position is weak. PHO doesn't have another rider in the top 20 on GC
other than Landis. It is him or nothing and he doesn't have the
potential to use the team leverage that TMO can. If Honchar can't
climb very well, Landis may have to sit Kloden's wheel while his
team covers everything else until the right time for Landis to
attack and gain ground. If PHO can't cover everything else, TMO can
eat Landis alive forcing him to cover a series of relentless relay
attacks. I am certain that TMO will eventually try to use relay
attacking in the mountains against Landis to break his legs.
A big thing in this Tour is whether Landis will have another bad day
in the mountains like he did in the Dauphine. If he does, the next
best placed known GC rider is Kloden who is 50 seconds closer to the
pursuers. If the other teams can work Landis over enough to cause
him to loose significant time in one mountain stage, anyone with 2
minutes of Kloden can win the Tour, which includes Hincapie in 17th
place. This, of course, is assuming Honchar doesn't climb well. This
Tour could still be wide open to about a dozen riders, most of whom
are relatively unknown. Guessing the outcome will still be a crap
shoot for at least another two or three days.
GST
The next rider in line of fire and closest to the battle for GC is a
young question mark racing for GST, Fothen. We know he can time
trial well enough to stay within 50 seconds of Landis and 1'50 of
Honchar but can he climb well enough to figure in the battle.
Unfortunately, we will have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to
find out.
GST's next best placed rider, Lang, is in 15th at 2'22" and has a
huge hole to dig out of. He will have to gain at least 2'22" just to
be even and then can be expected to lose at least another 2 minutes
in the next time trial. He has to gain five minutes in the mountains
just to be a serious threat on GC. This means that Landis can let
Lang gain three minutes before Landis has to chase. That is a nice
cushion and permits Landis to rest for a while before he has to
chase and he doesn't have to catch Lang, just finish within three
minutes of him and Lang is beat.
CEI
Karpets is just behind Fothen as far as being in the battle in 7th
at 1'52" which is only 52 seconds behind the first placed top known
GC rider, Landis. Here again, he is a big question mark and another
unknown. You can bet that so many unknowns are driving smart coaches
and riders mad. What you don't know, you have to cover which means
extra work and getting tired faster. There are probably coaches
beating their heads against walls in frustration while I write this.
DVL
Evans has to be the next and third best placed known top GC rider in
the Tour at 1'52" in 8th place. He has to be the next best threat to
Landis other than Kloden. We know he can time trial and climb and he
only needs to put 2.5 minutes into Landis in the mountains to have a
reasonable chance of winning this Tour.
Evans' big weakness is his team because they don't have another
rider in the top 20 on GC. He faces the same problems strategically
that all the others except Kloden face except he is a little further
behind.
RAB
Menchov has finally shown himself to be a reasonable threat this
year since he is only 1 minute behind Landis on GC in 9th place. He
has the same problem as the rest in that RAB doesn't have another
rider in the top 20. The advantage he has is that he is an
established GC rider but he is young and more prone to making
critical mistakes.
A2R
For the first time in years, Moreau hasn't gotten himself in
critical trouble in the time trial. He is only 1'07" down on Landis
and has to put at least 2.5 minutes into Landis to have a chance at
holding Landis off in the last time trial. If I were his coach, I
would want to see at least 3 minutes into Landis in the mountains
before the next TT. Unfortunately, the mountains won't be as
significant this year as last year but we know Moreau can climb very
well and possibly enough to win this Tour. Moreau may be France's
best chance at winning the Tour in a couple of decades. He is a long
shot but, with his climbing and current position, it is possible.
You also have to understand that, if Landis has a bad day in the
mountains like he did in the Dauphine, Moreau is only 17 seconds
behind the next best known GC rider, Kloden. This Tour is winnable
for Moreau.
DSC
We are talking major implosion for DSC. Savoldelli is the best
placed rider on GC, his strongest suit is time trialing, and we saw
him get his butt kicked in the mountains in the Giro just about six
weeks ago. I don't think he has a prayer of winning the Tour because
he will only go backwards in the next few weeks.
Hincapie has obviously not regained racing form from his injury and
his climbing should be in question. Even if he can gain time in the
mountains, he has to gain at least 4 to 5 minutes to have a chance
at surviving the next time trial, assuming a similar performance to
the first time trial. Personally, I think we should see at least a
slightly improved performance for the second time trial because he
should improve on conditioning but I think it will be a day late and
a few bucks short. He may be able to pull off a top five or even the
podium because he is only 1'30" behind Landis but that will be a
huge task when the first mountains are only a few days away.
CSC
CSC is in real trouble. They only have two riders in the top 20 on
GC; Zabriskie in 10th at 2'03" but he can't climb and Sastre in 16th
at 2'27". Sastre is a strong GC rider and he is only 1'27" behind
Landis. That is possible, especially if Landis has a day in the
mountains like he did in the Dauphine. Keep an eye on Sastre.
Points
DVL
McEwen has only one more day of flat sprinting before they reach the
mountains and he will begin to lose ground to riders like Boonen and
Hushovd. I expect him to do very well in tomorrow's flat road stage
which will most likely be a pack sprint. He needs to gain all the
points he can before the first mountain stage the next day.
QSI
At this point, Boonen has to be a race favorite because he can
sprint and climb well and should be able to pick up points in the
KOM mountains stages and more rolling stages that will soon follow.
The big question will be whether he can gain enough points to over
take McEwen and hold him off in the last flat stages including in
Paris.
RAB
I am not too sure about Freire's climbing abilities but I think he
does OK or at least better than McEwen does on the hills. He may be
able to gain ground against McEwen but I doubt he will gain much if
anything against Boonen and Hushovd.
LAM
Bennati is another questionable sprinter when it comes to climbing.
We will have to watch the back of the pack to see if and when he
gets dropped in the more climbing stages. I doubt he will gain time
against Boonen and Hushovd.
CA
Hushovd is entering his turf where he won the Points Title last
year, which is the more climbing stages. He stands a good chance of
doing it again this year even though he is a little more down
because of a penalty. Keep an eye on him during the next few weeks.
KOM
I expect the race for the KOM Title to change significantly in the
next few days when we reach the first KOM mountain stage, Stage 10.
From there things should change completely over the next 10 days. We
will see new faces moving up on the standings.
White
The race for the White Jersey is a big question mark because the
riders are young and newer to the Tour. They have not had a chance
to establish themselves yet. We will have to wait and see who rises
to the top on this title and it could signal a future champion.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's stage is a very short 169.5 km and very flat with no KOM
primes and three road primes spread out in the stage. The first road
prime is at 25.5 km and the Points teams may decide to keep the
breaks in until then. It is pretty unlikely that a break will win
and very likely that there will be a pack sprint. I expect McEwen to
have a very good chance at winning this stage. This stage will be
critical for McEwen because the next stage will be the first
mountain stage and he will go very backwards.
Even though it is pretty unlikely that a break will win this stage,
there should be considerable break action in the early part of the
stage because it is the last flat stage before the mountains.
